Latest Update in the SMM Silicon Market

[Market Confidence Recovery Remains Weak, GO Silicon Steel Prices Expected to Remain in the Doldrums Next Week] This week, GO silicon steel market prices showed a rangebound fluctuation trend, with overall trading activity sluggish. Market feedback indicates that the loose fundamentals in the spot market have seen little improvement, coupled with persistently weak downstream demand. Actual transaction performance remained subdued, while spot inventory stayed at a relatively high level. Traders, aiming to accelerate turnover and recoup funds, showed strong willingness to sell, with quotations largely stable but room for negotiation in actual transactions increasing. Downstream enterprises, such as transformer manufacturers, affected by production pace and cost control, primarily purchased as needed. Their outlook on the market remained cautious, with restocking purchases being rare, and most opting to maintain existing inventory levels. Overall, current market confidence recovery remains weak, and the supply-demand imbalance has yet to be effectively alleviated. Spot prices for GO silicon steel are expected to remain in the doldrums next week.

[Silicon Metal Stalemate Weakens, Polysilicon Price Range Stabilizes]: On the supply side, silicon metal operating rates showed an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, with south China experiencing further seasonal production cuts by silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season, while individual silicon enterprises in the north increased or resumed production. Under these adjustments, silicon metal supply in December is expected to remain roughly stable MoM. According to supply-demand balance calculations, silicon metal supply in Q4 showed inventory buildup, with the theoretical inventory buildup rate in November narrowing from October. If no unexpected disruptions occur on the supply side in December, the balance is expected to maintain inventory buildup expectations. The spot price of silicon metal has fluctuated rangebound for two months, and the stalemate in silicon metal competition has not yet changed, with recent spot prices still mainly fluctuating rangebound.

According to a document released by South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance on November 26, the "Perovskite-Silicon Tandem Solar Cell" has been officially designated as the 15th National Leading Project. A budget of 33.6 billion won has been allocated in the 2026 fiscal year for technology R&D, standard establishment, and market creation, with the goal of achieving the world's first commercialization by 2030, targeting a cell efficiency of 35% and a module efficiency of 28%.

11.28 Update: The SM2601 contract opened at 5,620 yuan/mt and closed at 5,612 yuan/mt, down 0.21%. The highest price was 5,638 yuan/mt and the lowest price was 5,602 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 113,200 lots, with open interest at 315,155 lots. The futures market remained weak today, fluctuating considerably. Cost side, key raw materials coke and manganese ore markets both held up well. Supply side, the market generally maintained a wait-and-see attitude with a slightly pessimistic outlook. In north China, alloy plants kept a normal production pace, with relatively stable supply; in south China, overall production started at a low level. Demand side, the latest steel tender prices were around 5,750 yuan/mt on delivery, with limited demand support, insufficient to drive SiMn prices. Spot SiMn prices were in the doldrums, fluctuating around the cost line.

[Demand Side Difficult to Improve, Oriented Silicon Steel Prices May Remain in the Doldrums Next Week] Demand side, end-use sectors such as transformers and new energy power equipment have slowed down their procurement pace. Coupled with the fact that some enterprises had already engaged in stockpiling earlier, the current wait-and-see sentiment is strong. Actual purchases are mainly small orders for restocking, with few large-volume transactions. On the trader side, the primary focus this week has been destocking existing inventory. Some traders have slightly lowered quotations for certain grades to accelerate capital recovery and promote transactions. Inventory side, after phased destocking operations, overall market inventory pressure has eased somewhat. However, traders remain cautious about future expectations, believing that demand growth remains weak, and their enthusiasm for purchasing from steel mills to restock has diminished.

[Spot silicon metal prices remain deadlocked; supply and demand both expected to weaken in December]: Supply side, seasonal production cuts occurred in Sichuan and Yunnan regions at the end of November and early December, leading to a narrowing trend in total silicon metal supply. In December, both supply and demand are expected to weaken, with the theoretical inventory buildup in the industry further narrowing, and the supply-demand balance may show a tight balance. The short-term price of silicon metal is expected to maintain a fluctuating and deadlocked trend. Next week, silicone monomer enterprises will jointly cut production to hold prices firm. On one hand, silicone production cuts will lead to a contraction in consumption of silicon metal, creating a bearish sentiment; on the other hand, the production cuts may drive a slight rebound in DMC prices, and the transmission of profits along the industry chain could stimulate a bullish sentiment in the silicon metal market. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts will focus on changes in capital sentiment.

Nov. 27 (SMM) – The SM2601 contract opened at 5,630 yuan/mt and closed at 5,626 yuan/mt, down 0.04%. The highest price was 5,648 yuan/mt and the lowest price was 5,606 yuan/mt during the daytime session. The trading volume was 144,400 lots and the open interest was 332,903 lots. The futures market remained weak today, struggling to rise. Cost side, the core raw materials, coke and manganese ore markets, held up well. Supply side, the market generally held a wait-and-see and pessimistic attitude. Alloy plants in north China maintained normal production scheduling, and the supply side released relatively steadily; overall operating rates in south China were low. Demand side, the latest steel tenders were around 5,750 yuan/mt accepted and delivered to the plant, with limited demand support and insufficient driving force for SiMn prices. SiMn spot prices were in the doldrums, fluctuating around the cost line.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: The quotation for polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon is 49.6-44.9 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon is 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index is 51.9 yuan/kg. Overall, market prices are largely stable, with individual enterprises currently maintaining a mindset to hold quotes firm. Top-tier enterprises have slowed down their delivery actions on futures, and recent news includes the confirmation of relevant company names. However, downstream sentiment remains generally weak, with issues of production cuts and price reductions persisting. Under the offset of long and short positions, spot prices are temporarily stable.

November 22 News: The SM2601 contract opened at 5,616 yuan/mt and closed at 5,630 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. The highest price during the daytime session was 5,678 yuan/mt, and the lowest price was 5,592 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 202,400 lots, and the open interest was 397,984 lots. Today, the futures continued to fluctuate, with a slight rebound followed by another pullback. Cost side, the core raw materials, coke and manganese ore markets, both held up well. Supply side, the market generally maintained a wait-and-see and relatively pessimistic sentiment at the beginning of the week. In north China, alloy plants maintained a normal production pace, with relatively stable supply releases. In south China, operating rates saw relatively small changes, and overall production enthusiasm remained low. Demand side, as the off-season began, purchasing activity pulled back, steel mill demand support was limited, providing insufficient momentum for SiMn prices. Currently, the spot silicon manganese market maintained cautious selling sentiment, and spot prices remained temporarily stable.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Module Prices Continue to Diverge, Distributed Market Expectations Remain Weak] Last week, domestic module prices continued to diverge. For centralized projects, with the recent signing of some projects, the publicly announced bidding prices have increased compared to early November, with an upward adjustment of approximately 0.01-0.03 yuan/W, as bid price limits provided some support. Demand in the distributed market has weakened again recently, while competitive sentiment for module types below 620W remains high. It is expected that before mid-December, the market will continue to be dominated by low-price competition, and the price center is expected to shift downward. Currently, distributed high-efficiency Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N modules are quoted at 0.667 yuan/W, 0.684 yuan/W, and 0.673 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized high-efficiency Topcon 182/183 and 210N modules are quoted at 0.667 yuan/W and 0.687 yuan/W, respectively.