Latest Update in the SMM Silicon Market

[Core Demand Support Remains Solid, GO Silicon Steel Prices May Hold Steady Next Week] This week, the cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel market overall stabilized, with the market pace slowing further. Market feedback indicated that HRC futures initially rose then fell during the week. Affected by this, most local grain-oriented silicon steel traders maintained stable quotations, with no significant price adjustments observed. End-user procurement was primarily need-based restocking, and overall trading activity remained subdued, though core demand support remained solid...

SM2605 contract opened at 5,820 yuan/mt and finally closed at 5,826 yuan/mt, up 2.00%, with a daily highest price of 5,844 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 5,820 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 256,200 lots, and open interest was 362,400 lots. Today, SiMn futures fluctuated and climbed. Cost side, overall manganese ore transaction prices remained high and the overall market temporarily stabilized, providing strong cost support for SiMn alloy prices; the cost support from Inner Mongolia regional electricity prices and south China electricity prices for alloy in 2026 was under verification, with a high possibility of increase expected. Supply side, recent new SiMn furnace startups in northern main production areas increased general SiMn capacity again, and previously started submerged arc furnaces had gradually begun producing iron, increasing supply pressure. Operating rates at southern alloy plants remained stably low; the strength of 2026 electricity fee preferential policies in Guangxi and Guizhou needed verification, with most still maintaining off-peak production, and some plants chose temporary shutdowns, waiting for the month-end electricity fee settlement price. Currently, loose SiMn supply pressure persisted. Demand side, HBIS Group's January 2026 SiMn procurement volume was 17,000 mt, compared to December's 14,700 mt, showing an increase; SiMn pricing was 5,920 yuan/mt, compared to December's 5,770 yuan/mt, indicating a price rise. Market sentiment remained mediocre. Currently, the SiMn market continued to be dominated by volatile operation.

[Macro factors support futures prices generally stable with slight rise; Northern silicon enterprises' shipments increase]: This week, spot silicon metal prices overall held steady, with individual grades slightly rising. Futures prices, supported by the macro front and capital sentiment, fluctuated upward. As of January 29, SMM East China 553# silicon was quoted at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, flat WoW; 441# silicon was quoted at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; 3303# silicon was quoted at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the center of the most-traded contract's trading range moved higher WoW, with the highest point touching 9,000 yuan/mt. On Thursday, January 29, the most-traded SI2605 contract settled at 8,925 yuan/mt. On the transaction side, some northern silicon enterprises saw increased shipments via futures market order placement, with the center of order pricing concentrated at 8,950-9,000 yuan/mt. Downstream users engaged in pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling purchases or tenders, with market purchasing primarily as needed.

[Silicon Market Weekly Review: As Chinese New Year Holiday Approaches, Overall Market Transactions Remain Stable] This week, domestic silicone DMC market prices remained stable, with the mainstream transaction range rising to 13,800-14,000 yuan/mt, holding steady WoW. Regionally, monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 13,800 yuan/mt, while other major monomer enterprises quoted 14,000 yuan/mt.

SM2605 contract opened at 5,822 yuan/mt and closed at 5,832 yuan/mt, up 0.24%, with the highest price at 5,836 yuan/mt and the lowest at 5,786 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 139,900 lots, and open interest was 374,987 lots. SiMn futures fluctuated and climbed today. Cost side, overall manganese ore transaction prices remained high and the market was temporarily stable, providing strong cost support for SiMn alloy prices; the cost support from Inner Mongolia regional electricity prices and south China electricity prices for alloy production in 2026 is under verification. Supply side, recent new SiMn furnace start-ups in the main northern production areas increased general SiMn capacity, adding to supply pressure. Operating rates at southern alloy plants remained stably low. It is understood that the strength of preferential electricity policies in Guangxi and Guizhou for 2026 remains to be verified, with most plants still maintaining off-peak production, and some choosing to suspend operations temporarily while awaiting the electricity settlement price by month-end. Loose SiMn supply pressure persists. Demand side, HBIS Group’s January 2026 SiMn procurement volume was 17,000 mt, up from December’s 14,700 mt, while the SiMn purchase price was set at 5,920 yuan/mt, up from 5,770 yuan/mt in December. Market sentiment remained mediocre. The current SiMn market continues to be dominated by range-bound movement.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 48-57 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 48-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index stood at 51.95 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices declined, mainly reflected in weaker indicative prices, with extremely limited market transactions before the 28th meeting. However, both upstream and downstream sentiment leaned bearish. Some top-tier polysilicon enterprises continued to hold prices firm, but multiple downstream players and some polysilicon producers expected subsequent transactions to start with a "4," though specific bulk transactions may need to wait until after the meeting concludes. Wafer: 18X wafer prices were at 1.25-1.35 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 1.35-1.45 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.6-1.65 yuan/piece. High wafer prices saw a pullback, and the market transaction range showed a narrowing trend. A few second- and third-tier small manufacturers sold off at low prices and prepared to shut down. Currently, the overall transaction center for wafers has shifted downward. With unclear upstream policy trends, market sentiment toward passing on price increases has wavered.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stabilized Pre-Meeting, Modules Maintained Upward Trend] Over the weekend, the quotation for N-type recharging polysilicon was 49.5-58.5 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 53.46 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices temporarily remained stable over the weekend. This week, relevant anti-involution/anti-monopoly meetings will be held, following last week's consultations with some enterprises. Enterprises are clearly adopting a wait-and-see attitude regarding the meeting outcomes. Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable, and market transactions are expected to materialize in the mid-to-late part of the week.

[Enhanced Demand for Capital Return May Lead to Doldrums in GO Silicon Steel Prices Next Week] This week, cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel prices trended downward, with high-grade grades such as high magnetic induction (Hi-B) experiencing relatively significant declines, while standard grades faced slight downward pressure amid weak overall market transactions. Market feedback indicated that ferrous metals futures saw a decline in their center, dampening confidence in the GO silicon steel market. Most traders lowered their offers to accelerate sales, widening the negotiation margin. Currently, the fundamentals of GO silicon steel reflect a supply-strength, demand-weakness pattern. Mainstream steel mills, including Baosteel and Shougang Group, maintained relatively stable production paces, leading to a gradual accumulation of supply-side pressure. However, demand-side support remained lackluster, as downstream transformer enterprises gradually digested previous orders. Coupled with copper prices fluctuating at highs, which raised production costs, the willingness to restock GO silicon steel remained subdued, with procurement mostly limited to small, as-needed batches. As the Chinese New Year approaches, traders’ demand for capital return is strengthening, making price reductions to boost sales the mainstream approach, thereby increasing market selling pressure. Overall, it is expected that the decline in Shanghai’s cold-rolled GO silicon steel prices will slow down next week, with the market likely to remain in the doldrums.

[Market Sentiment Cautious, Silicon Metal Spot Prices Held Steady]: Silicon metal spot prices remained stable this week, with the most-traded futures contract fluctuating within the range of 8,600–8,900 yuan/mt. As of January 22, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was priced at 9,200–9,300 yuan/mt, #441 silicon at 9,300–9,500 yuan/mt, and #421 silicon at 9,500–9,800 yuan/mt, all flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract closed at 8,825 yuan/mt on Thursday, down 20 yuan/mt from Monday but up 220 yuan/mt from last Friday. Earlier in the week, news circulated about production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang by month-end. Downstream feedback was generally cautious, with seasonal off-season demand compounded by year-end declines in end-use demand. Pre-holiday stockpiling orders were not concentrated, leading to moderate market trading activity.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: DMC Price Center Edged Up, Market Transactions Driven by Rigid Demand] This week, domestic silicone DMC prices showed a slight rise before stabilizing, with the mainstream transaction range climbing to 13,800-14,000 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW. Regionally, monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 13,800 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW, while other major monomer enterprises maintained their quotes at 14,000 yuan/mt.