According to the latest monthly survey data from SMM, the total production of aluminum rods nationwide in June 2025 was 390,000 mt, a decrease of 27,000 mt from May. After adjusting for the number of days in the month, the operating rate of aluminum rod plants in June was recorded at 60%, down 2% MoM and up 5% YoY. Overall, despite weak downstream purchasing, in-plant inventory was in the initial stage of inventory buildup, coupled with the task of liquid aluminum alloying, the aluminum rod supply side remained at highs in June. However, as the off-season atmosphere in the downstream sector became increasingly pronounced, with market purchasing significantly weakening, many plants announced production cuts and maintenance of equipment in mid-to-late June. It is expected that there will be a pullback in the aluminum rod supply side in July, and the pressure of market supply surplus may ease slightly.

According to SMM statistics, the composite operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry in June 2025 was 52.01%, down 3.4% MoM from May and 4.65% YoY from June last year. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the operating rate of large enterprises decreased by 2.4% MoM to 68.53%, that of medium-sized enterprises fell by 3.2 MoM to 45.76%, and that of small enterprises decreased by 10.2% MoM to 16.95%.

The SMM Imported Zinc Concentrate Index for this week is $66.48/dmt, with a 0.35% WoW increase. The SMM Imported Lead Concentrate average spot TC for this week is $-55/dmt, flat from the previous week's figure......

Through a detailed analysis of the lead price trend in the first half of 2025 (H1), this article reviews the fluctuations in lead prices across different months, including the impact of factors such as the Chinese New Year holiday, tariff policies, the US Fed's interest rate-setting meetings, and environmental protection considerations on lead prices. Meanwhile, considering factors such as market demand for lead-acid batteries, lead ingot supply, inventory changes, and macro policies, it provides an outlook on the future trend of lead prices. The article points out that lead prices may experience a pattern of rising first and then declining in the second half of the year (H2). It is necessary to be vigilant about the risks brought by uncertainties in tariff policies, while also paying attention to the impact of key factors such as raw material supply, enterprise competition, and battery exports on the market.

In the first half of the year (H1), tariff disputes persisted, jointly boosting domestic consumption from multiple perspectives such as capital and demand. However, due to time constraints, the implementation speed has been relatively slow. According to communication with SMM, the operating rates of galvanising producers in H1 2025 moved downwards after a higher opening. What were the reasons?