Since April, the operating rate has declined by about 30 percentage points due to tight raw material supply, high costs, weak end-use consumption, and poor lead ingot sales. The low scrap volume of waste lead-acid batteries has led to scarce market supply and significant pressure on recyclers. Secondary lead smelters face tight scrap battery arrivals, low raw material inventories, and high purchase offers. Intense competition for raw materials and customer-specific price increases have further complicated the situation. Lead prices remained sideways during the week, with downstream battery producers showing a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Secondary lead smelters had low willingness to sell due to cost pressure, and the spot market for secondary refined lead was sluggish. As of May 16, the theoretical profit and loss value for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -592 yuan/mt, and -820 yuan/mt for small- and medium-sized enterprises.

April is traditionally a peak season, and the overall demand for galvanizing was relatively robust. Due to issues such as tariffs, there was a certain degree of early release of future demand, and the overall operation was good. How did the regions of North China, East China, and South China perform? Can the robust trend continue in May?

[SMM Analysis:The mid-year negotiations are approaching, and the imbalanced supply-demand structure of copper concentrate will have far-reaching impacts ] Antofagasta’s mid-year negotiations with smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea are imminent, during which Antofagasta will launch negotiations with smelters. From the current situation, the outlook for buyers is not optimistic.

Recently, news has been circulating widely in the market that an energy giant has established aluminum positions exceeding 1 million mt on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The scale of this position is staggering — as of May 15, LME aluminum inventory stood at only 397,300 mt (with Rusal accounting for approximately 90% of it), and the giant's position is 2.5 times larger than the existing inventory. Affected by this, the near-month contracts of LME aluminum have shifted from a contango structure with futures premiums of $28 to a slight backwardation structure with spot premiums, intensifying market concerns about the rise in near-month contract prices of LME aluminum. Many investors are beginning to wonder if LME aluminum will replicate the previous strong backwardation trend of LME copper, which was triggered by changes in global trade flows due to tariff policy risks.

Today, DCE iron ore futures fluctuated rangebound, weakening slightly in the afternoon. The most-traded contract I2509 eventually closed at 736.5, up 1.17% for the day. Traders sold goods according to market conditions. Some steel mills faced poor sales of finished products, leading to weakened purchase willingness.