Latest Update in the SMM Nickel And Manganese Market

December 12 news: Northern ports: South African high-iron ore at 30-30.5 yuan/mtu, up 1.34% WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 34-34.5 yuan/mtu, down 0.58% WoW; Gabon ore at 41.9-43.5 yuan/mtu, up 2.61% WoW; Australian lumps at 41-41.7 yuan/mtu, up 5.56% WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 36.4-37.4 yuan/mtu, up 0.81% WoW. Southern ports: South African high-iron ore at 30.3-30.8 yuan/mtu, down 1.61% WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 36.4-37.3 yuan/mtu, down 1.34% WoW; Gabon ore at 41.1-42 yuan/mtu, up 1.22% WoW; Australian lumps at 41.5-42.2 yuan/mtu, up 2.45% WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 37.1-37.6 yuan/mtu, down 1.32% WoW. The manganese ore market continued its previous firm trend, with differentiated performance among varieties, among which the transaction price of high-grade manganese ore rose particularly prominently.

SM2603 contract opened at 5,712 yuan/mt and finally closed at 5,730 yuan/mt, up 0.0%. The highest price was 5,738 yuan/mt and the lowest was 5,678 yuan/mt during the daytime session. Trading volume was 160,600 lots and open interest was 281,084 lots. The futures fluctuated upward today, but upside room for price increases was limited. Cost side, the manganese ore market remained firm, providing strong cost support for SiMn. Supply side, alloy plants in both northern and southern regions maintained stable operations. Spot SiMn prices in production areas were below most enterprises' cost levels, putting significant pressure on producers' profitability. Demand side, HBIS Group set its December SiMn price at 5,770 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan from the initial inquiry of 5,700 yuan/mt, but down significantly from November's price of 5,820 yuan/mt, indicating weak market sentiment for SiMn. The SiMn market is expected to remain weak in the short term.

Nickel prices were in the doldrums this week, dominated by loose supply and demand. Although the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, nickel prices failed to get an effective boost and showed a clear downtrend. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract was relatively firm at the beginning of the week, but prices accelerated their pullback later due to weak domestic demand, closing at 115,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.84% WoW. LME nickel prices also weakened, falling consecutively and down 2.27% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 119,350 yuan/mt this week, down 1,850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 5,100 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were sluggish this week, with downstream consumers mainly stockpiling for rigid demand and adopting a wait-and-see stance.

Recently, the EMM market has shown a sharp upward trend, with spot prices rising rapidly and trading activity continuously heating up. Favorable factors on both the supply-demand sides are being released collectively, coupled with support from the peak stockpiling season, leading to increasingly high industry sentiment. The upward momentum for EMM prices is expected to continue clearly...

This week, the intermediate nickel product market saw low activity, with MHP and high-grade nickel matte prices declining.

[Market Review: Upstream-Downstream Contradictions Increasingly Evident, High-Grade NPI Price Unchanged] December 12 news, SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI averaged 888.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), flat MoM from the previous working day.

December 11 news: The SM2603 contract opened at 5,724 yuan/mt and closed at 5,712 yuan/mt, down 0.49%. The highest price was 5,756 yuan/mt and the lowest was 5,702 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 183,800 lots, and open interest was 290,271 lots. During the daytime session, futures edged higher initially then pulled back, lacking upward momentum. Cost side, the manganese ore market remained firm, with high-grade oxide ore showing notable gains, providing strong cost support for SiMn. Supply side, alloy plants in both northern and southern regions maintained stable operations. Spot SiMn prices in production areas were below most enterprises' cost levels, putting producers under heavy loss pressure. Demand side, a new round of steel mill tenders was gradually unfolding. HBIS Group set its December SiMn price at 5,770 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan from the first inquiry of 5,700 yuan/mt, but down significantly from November's price of 5,820 yuan/mt, leading to negative market sentiment for SiMn. In the short term, spot SiMn prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.