Latest Update in the SMM Solar Market

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes] Polysilicon: The quoted price for polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was 51.5-59 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon was quoted at 51.5-59 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index stood at 54.93 yuan/kg. Due to the impact of export tax rebates and production cuts of polysilicon itself, the overall procurement and sales sentiment for polysilicon saw a slight rise, with some downstream players considering the feasibility of certain prices. However, overall market quotations have not changed significantly, and attention is being paid to the recent new concentrated order signing for polysilicon. Wafer: The market price for 18X wafers was 1.38-1.4 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers was 1.48-1.5 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers was 1.68-1.7 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable this week, while overseas export prices saw a slight increase. Currently, back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream in the wafer segment are evident, and the demand stimulus from export tax rebates has not yet been transmitted to the wafer segment.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes: Stalemate in Spot Silicon Metal Prices, Stronger Transaction Center for Modules] Module: Last week, domestic module prices continued to rise, with enterprise guidance prices repeatedly hitting new highs. However, high-priced shipments were limited, and recently distributors began entering the market to sell previously low-priced inventory, slightly curbing the rise in the transaction center. In the centralized sector, there were basically no transactions, with pre-holiday demand extremely low. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.732 Yuan/W, 0.748 Yuan/W, and 0.756 Yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.689 Yuan/W and 0.709 Yuan/W, respectively.

【PV Industry Rational "Anti-involution": How to Deal with Inefficient Modules?– SMM Analysis】According to SMM statistics, we estimate that approximately 15%–20% of modules in China will fail to meet standards by 2026, and these low-power modules are more suitable for overseas power grids.

The recent announcement by China's State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of export tax rebates for photovoltaic (PV) products has garnered significant attention across the global market. In this context, a critical question arises: Can non-Chinese enterprises leverage the theoretical increase in Chinese export costs to rapidly narrow the cost disparity with the Chinese supply chain and reshape the competitive landscape? Currently, there is a significant discrepancy in price and cost between PV products (primarily modules) manufactured in China and those produced in other regions. With the formal cancellation of the export tax rebate for Chinese PV products, the industry is focused on whether this price gap can be closed quickly. According to SMM preliminary statistics, a significant price difference of at least $0.05/W persists between Chinese export modules and those exported from non-Chinese regions such as Southeast Asia and India. The following analysis examines this issue through three dimensions: global supply and demand status, industrial technology strategy, and product manufacturing quality.

Previously, China's State Taxation Administration issued an announcement regarding the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for PV products, a move that has garnered widespread attention in the global market. Against this backdrop, can non-Chinese enterprises seize this opportunity to rapidly narrow the cost gap with China's supply chain and reshape the competitive landscape by leveraging the theoretical increase in export costs of Chinese products? Currently, there is a significant gap in price and cost between PV products (primarily PV modules) manufactured in China and those produced in other regions. With the formal cancellation of China's export tax rebate policy for PV products, whether this gap can be quickly narrowed has become a core issue of concern for the global PV industry. According to incomplete statistics from SMM, a notable price spread of at least $0.05/W persists between modules exported from China and those from non-Chinese regions such as Southeast Asia and India. An in-depth analysis is conducted based on three dimensions: the current global supply-demand situation, industrial technology strategies, and product manufacturing quality.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary] Silicon Metal: The silicon metal market moved sideways, with futures in the doldrums yesterday. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was quoted at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, both unchanged from the previous day. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon contract closed at 8,635 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous day. Downstream stockpiling sentiment remained subdued ahead of the holiday, with market transactions driven by demand. Polysilicon: Polysilicon N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 51-58.5 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-58.5 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index at 54.53 yuan/kg. Coupled with the impact of export tax rebates, top-tier enterprises still hold prices firm, while lower prices in the market mainly come from some traders. Market participants remain cautious and engaged in a wait-and-see stance, with a leading upstream enterprise planning to halt production soon. The subsequent situation may need to await the next round of concentrated order signing.