SMM

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Aluminum Prices Under Pressure at Highs, Awaiting CPI Data Guidance] On the macro front, US Fed officials are increasingly uneasy about the labour market, indicating their openness to an interest rate cut as early as September. Cooling inflation may solidify bets on a rate cut next month, but signs that President Trump's tariffs are fueling price increases could prompt the Fed to hold off for now. In terms of supply, there have been relatively small changes, with production of electrolytic aluminum remaining stable with a slight increase. On the cost side, the total weekly cost for the electrolytic aluminum industry is 16,738 yuan/mt, showing minimal change, and the industry's high profits persist. Focusing on demand, under the influence of the off-season, consumption from terminals to processed materials remains weak. The growth rates of industries such as home appliances and PV, which had strong support in the early stage, have slowed down. Some aluminum terminal export orders have also declined, and the construction industry continues to experience a super-seasonal decline. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has surpassed the 550,000 mt mark. Although last week's uneven arrivals caused fluctuations in inventory data, the high aluminum prices amid the off-season may further damage consumption, and the trend of inventory buildup is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, macro tailwinds combined with potential risks in electrolytic aluminum supply have driven aluminum prices to rebound to highs. However, during the consumption off-season, the pressure of inventory buildup remains significant. After the positive sentiment is digested, the center of aluminum prices will pull back somewhat, still facing pressure at the 21,000 yuan/mt mark. Similarly, most processed material enterprises have a relatively high recognition of prices below 20,500 yuan/mt, and their just-in-time procurement capabilities have been somewhat validated at this level.