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SMM December 17: For aluminum ingots in South China, the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) price on December 17 was 21,640 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt on the day, at a discount of 215 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, widening by 5 yuan/mt from the previous day. A sharp decline in social inventory today supported suppliers to hold prices firm. However, driven by the core year-end need for destocking and cash flow, market willingness to sell remained strong, keeping circulation loose. Morning offers were mainly concentrated at -10 to 0 yuan/mt. Downstream rush to buy amid continuous price rise provided a floor, but the incomplete implementation of new long-term contracts dampened traders' purchase willingness, leading to weak initial transactions. Later, continued futures gains pushed offers to around +100 yuan/mt, prompting some buyers to replenish low-priced cargo, marginally improving transactions. For aluminum billets in South China, on December 17, the processing fees for various specifications of SMM 6063 aluminum billets (Guangdong) were stable to lower. The average fee for Φ90/100 was 450 yuan/mt, while for Φ120 and above it was 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day , with price differences persisting in market quotes. A significant rise in the base price failed to spur downstream rush to buy amid continuous price rise. Enterprises prioritized securing low-priced cargo, resulting in limited overall demand. Subsequent offers were gradually lowered, leading to mixed transaction performance throughout the day, with processing fees lacking upward momentum. Inventory side, on Wednesday, aluminum ingot and billet inventories in major consumption areas decreased by 10,500 mt and 2,000 mt WoW, respectively, with South China seeing destocking of 2,000 mt and 1,000 mt. Short term, the pullback in absolute prices supports sellers' willingness to hold prices firm, but weakening demand reduces downstream purchase willingness, and spot discounts are expected to fluctuate.

SMM December 17 news, today's domestic titanium dioxide market prices: anatase titanium dioxide quoted at 11,800-12,200 yuan/mt, average 12,000 yuan/mt; rutile titanium dioxide quoted at 12,700-13,500 yuan/mt, average 13,100 yuan/mt; chloride process titanium dioxide domestic quote 14,700-15,700 yuan/mt, average 15,200 yuan/mt. Since major enterprises collectively issued price adjustment letters at the end of November, the titanium dioxide market prices have been raised by 200-300 yuan/mt overall. Sulphate process titanium dioxide, affected by the sharp rise in sulphuric acid prices, has seen continuously rising production costs. Enterprises have largely depleted their earlier reserves of low-priced sulphuric acid, and most orders signed by the end of November have been delivered, leaving overall factory inventory levels not high. Demand side, the market saw good release driven by industry exhibitions in November, with December demand support mainly from the foreign trade market. This month, the titanium dioxide market is expected to maintain its upward trend with strong cost support, showing a generally stable with slight rise trend.

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On December 17, 2025, the ex-factory price for high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price for high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. The ferrochrome market operated steadily during the day. Many ferrochrome producers in south China halted or cut production, alleviating the oversupply situation. Combined with the fact that new capacity in the north has not yet reached normal operating levels, overall ferrochrome production is expected to decline, maintaining a relatively tight supply-demand balance and boosting market participant confidence. Additionally, considering potential pre-holiday stocking demand from the downstream stainless steel market in January and the current tightness of retail ferrochrome supply, producers' sentiment to hold prices firm has strengthened, providing some support for price increases. The ferrochrome market is expected to maintain stable operation in the near term, with attention on the direction of the new round of steel mill tender prices. Raw material side, on December 17, 2025, the spot offer price for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 51-52.5 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 40-42% South African raw ore was 46.5-48 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was 52.5-53.5 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 54-55 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 57-58.5 yuan/mtu; the offer price for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder was 59-60 yuan/mtu, flat MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, the offer price for 40-42% South African fines was $263-265/mt. The chrome ore market operated steadily during the day, with traders maintaining their firm price stance and moderate transaction performance. Downstream ferrochrome offers rebounded, and producers' willingness to purchase increased, but most are adopting a wait-and-see approach towards the new round of steel mill tenders, primarily making just-in-time procurement. Sized ore remains the main hot topic for inquiries. Due to limited supply, spot offers followed the upward trend, and prices were raised. For futures, major South African mines kept their offers unchanged, showing a clear firm price attitude and strengthened control. Stockpiling demand for 2026 is gradually being released, with several purchase transactions noted recently, supporting mine confidence. The chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily in the short term, awaiting the finalization of the new round of steel mill tenders and overseas market offers.

SMM December 17:        The most-traded SHFE zinc 2601 contract opened at 22,855 yuan/mt. After opening, bulls reduced their positions, and SHFE zinc fluctuated upward slightly above the daily average line. Subsequently, a tug-of-war between longs and shorts led the contract to maintain a fluctuating trend, ultimately closing down at 22,850 yuan/mt, a decrease of 70 yuan/mt or 0.30%. Trading volume fell to 104,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,382 lots to 80,774 lots. SHFE zinc recorded three consecutive declining sessions, with resistance from the 5-day and 10-day daily average lines above and support from the 20-day and 60-day daily average lines below. Currently, domestic end-use consumption remains mediocre, and enterprises primarily make just-in-time procurement. However, supply-side factors still provide some support to prices. It is expected that prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Attention can be paid to domestic and overseas inventory changes.

Today, iron ore futures continued to fluctuate upward, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 768, up 1.25% from the previous trading day. Traders actively sold goods; steel mills cautiously waited and purchased as needed. Market transactions were mainly driven by steel mill purchases, with a sluggish trading atmosphere. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 783-790 yuan/mt, up 3-5 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Hebei, PB fines traded at 795-803 yuan/mt, up 3-5 yuan/mt from yesterday. According to an SMM survey, as of December 17, the blast furnace operating rate at 242 steel mills tracked by SMM was 84.64%, down 0.59 percentage points MoM. The daily average hot metal output at the sampled steel mills was 2.3477 million mt, down 14,200 mt MoM. Recently, affected by environmental protection-driven production restrictions in the north, some steel mills have suspended blast furnaces for maintenance or idled them, leading to a continued decline in hot metal output. The fundamental supply-demand dynamics of iron ore remain in the doldrums. However, considering the short-term drop in production, which is positive for steel prices, coupled with some recovery in steel mill profits, market pessimism has eased, driving a slight rebound in ore prices.

On December 16, the first phase of China Energy Engineering Group's Songyuan Green Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Methanol Integrated Project ("Qing Hydrogen One") officially commenced operation in Songyuan, Jilin, with the second phase simultaneously launched. The project has set four world records: largest scale, largest hydrogen storage capacity, widest load-flexible process, and largest alkaline electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, overcoming the world-class challenge of coupling fluctuating new energy sources with stable chemical production. This may signify that China's hydrogen energy industry has entered a new stage of large-scale commercial application. The first phase of the project involves a total investment of 6.946 billion yuan, supported by 750 MW of wind power and 50 MW of PV installed capacity. It utilizes 64 sets of domestically produced 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolyzers, with an annual output of 45,000 mt of green hydrogen, 200,000 mt of green ammonia, and green methanol. It is expected to save approximately 600,000 mt of standard coal and reduce CO2 emissions by 740,000 mt annually. On the same day, the project obtained ISCC EU certification from Bureau Veritas, meeting the EU Renewable Energy Directive requirements for full life cycle carbon management and product standards, securing a "passport" to the global green energy market. At the event, China Energy Engineering Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. signed the world's first deep-sea shipping green ammonia sales contract with Jiangsu Andefu Energy and Belgian shipping group CMB.TECH. CMB.TECH simultaneously announced a strategic investment in Jiangsu Andefu (a leading Chinese ammonia supply chain enterprise) and plans to take delivery of 11 ammonia-powered vessels (including 10 bulk carriers of 210,000 DWT) starting in 2026, which will operate on an ammonia-diesel dual-fuel mode. Andefu is advancing ship-to-ship ammonia bunkering services, targeting commercial operation by 2026, to build a global ammonia fuel supply chain support system. Upon completion of the third phase, the Songyuan Green Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Methanol Integrated Project will achieve an annual green ammonia production capacity of 600,000 mt, providing zero-carbon energy solutions for sectors such as chemicals, metallurgy, and shipping, supporting global shipping decarbonization and the energy economic transformation of Northeast China.

As of Wednesday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in the north China market was quoted at 5,550–5,600 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan WoW; in the south China market, SiMn 6517 (cash) was quoted at 5,600–5,650 yuan/mt, flat WoW. This week, the domestic SiMn alloy market continued in the doldrums, with overall market conditions under pressure. Cost side, although coke prices fell by 50 yuan/mt, easing some cost pressure, the price of key raw material manganese ore remained firm—port traders showed little willingness to lower offers, coupled with higher quotations from overseas manganese mines, leaving limited downside room for manganese ore prices and providing core support for SiMn alloy costs. Production costs for SiMn alloy in north China showed no significant change; in Guangxi, however, due to peak-avoidance production policies, electricity prices rose about 0.1 yuan/kWh MoM, further increasing cost pressure on enterprises, so overall cost-side support for SiMn alloy did not weaken substantially. Supply side, at the spot level, mills showed low willingness to offer retail quotations, preferring to wait for futures to rise before selling, leading to increased inventory pressure at plants. In north China, newly added SiMn capacity at alloy plants has been steadily put into operation and will gradually enter the iron output phase, which will further intensify market supply pressure. In south China, seasonal production cuts were more pronounced: in hydropower-based areas, as the rainy season ended, rising electricity prices drove up production costs, increasing the number of enterprises cutting output and leading to a noticeable drop in SiMn production; other grid-powered areas, affected by high electricity prices, have long relied on peak-avoidance production cuts, keeping output at low levels. Demand side, in December, HBIS Group’s SiMn procurement saw both volume and price decrease: the finalized price was 5,770 yuan/mt (first round inquiry at 5,700 yuan/mt), down 50 yuan/mt from 5,820 yuan/mt in November; the procurement volume was 14,700 mt, down 1,300 mt from 16,000 mt in November. The simultaneous decline in volume and price from a key steel mill not only directly affected short-term market trading sentiment but also reflected cautious downstream demand, putting downward pressure on SiMn alloy prices. Overall, the current SiMn market is characterized by high inventory, high supply, and low demand, resulting in price stalemate and difficult progress in actual transactions.

In the western Liaoning domestic ore market, prices of iron ore concentrates remained relatively stable recently. The ex-factory prices for Fe66% iron ore concentrates on a wet basis, excluding tax, were 730-740 yuan/mt. The recent inspections by the National Security Bureau in the area affected production and transportation at some mines and beneficiation plants. Overall, iron ore concentrate resources remained relatively tight, with a relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm and a relatively strong wait-and-see sentiment. On the demand side, local steel mills mainly purchased as needed, maintaining a basically weak supply-demand pattern. However, with the recent strengthening and fluctuations in iron ore futures, it is expected that local iron ore concentrate prices may rebound slightly in the short term. [SMM Steel]

SMM December 17 News: Key Points: In the face of the new energy vehicle (NEV) wave, traditional giant China FAW is achieving a strategic comeback through solid-state batteries. Its plan is clear: by 2025, it will rely on Farasis Energy for the commercial production of semi-solid-state batteries, and by 2027, it aims to achieve small-scale installation of all-solid-state batteries. By forming industrial alliances, securing capacity, and accelerating R&D, FAW intends to be the first to break the 1,000-kilometer driving range barrier in high-end models like Hongqi, reshaping the market landscape. On December 5, 2025, at the 2025 Tenth New Automotive Technology Cooperation Ecosystem Exchange Conference (WNAT-CES 2025) held in Suzhou, Jiang Wentu, Vice President of the Hongqi Brand Operations Committee of China FAW, stated that China FAW, in collaboration with 27 organizations, has made joint efforts in solid-state battery R&D. Currently, they have completed the trial production of 66Ah battery cells and are accelerating towards mass production. By the end of 2027, FAW's solid-state batteries will be installed in both the high-end flagship sedan and SUV of the Hongqi brand, entering mass production simultaneously. For the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, FAW's goal is to achieve total vehicle sales exceeding 5 million units by 2030, with Hongqi brand sales surpassing 1.2 million units, overall sales of its own brands exceeding 2 million units, and NEV sales exceeding 3 million units. Initially, traditional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) enterprises were inadequately prepared for the future penetration rate of NEVs and few had laid out lithium battery businesses. After several years of development, NEVs have now matched or even surpassed ICEVs in momentum. The engine is the heart of an ICEV, while the battery is the power source of an EV. Traditional automakers, who failed to successfully establish or gain a leading edge in conventional lithium batteries, are now looking to make significant strides in the new arena of solid-state batteries. Automakers such as China FAW, GAC, Geely, SAIC, Changan, and Chery are all ramping up their R&D and layout in solid-state batteries. The following article provides insight into the solid-state battery industry layout of China FAW, the leader in traditional ICEVs and a major contributor to the new era of China. Currently, FAW is primarily promoting its NEVs through the Hongqi series, attracting a large number of customers with a sense of the times. I. Technical Route: Semi-Solid + All-Solid + 2027 Phase One (2024-2026): Large-scale application of semi-solid-state batteries: focusing on ternary pouch systems, with the core metric being an increase in the solid content of electrolytes to 30%-50%, prioritizing the resolution of long-range and high-safety demands for commercial vehicles, while simultaneously advancing validation for passenger vehicles. This route has been realized through cooperation with Farasis Energy, and the relevant battery products have already passed commercial vehicle condition tests. Phase Two (2027-2030): Small-scale production of all-solid-state batteries: targeting sulfide electrolyte systems, with a focus on overcoming bottlenecks such as interface impedance control and all-solid-state cell assembly processes. According to Wang Deping, Chief Scientist of FAW, the all-solid-state battery project has entered the pilot production stage, with plans to achieve small-scale vehicle applications by 2027 and complete the technical reserves for large-scale production by 2030. Semi-solid-state batteries (ternary pouch), with an energy density of 330-350Wh/kg, and a cycle life of ≥4,000 cycles (1C charge-discharge), are applicable to heavy trucks, trunk logistics vehicles, and high-end passenger vehicles. Battery brand: Farasis Energy. All-solid-state batteries (pilot samples), with an energy density of ≥500Wh/kg (target value), and a cycle life of ≥3,000 cycles (1C charge-discharge), are applicable to high-end passenger vehicles and special commercial vehicles. Battery brand: possibly Sinocar Energy. II. Strategic Alliance: Farasis + Solid-State Battery Industry Innovation Consortium + Sinocar Energy 1. Farasis Energy: Both parties signed a strategic agreement in March 2024, making Farasis Energy the exclusive supplier of semi-solid-state batteries for FAW's commercial vehicles. Its second-generation semi-solid-state battery has passed all verification processes by FAW Jiefang, and mass supply began in Q4 2024. As of September 2025, Farasis Energy's shipments of semi-solid-state batteries to FAW have exceeded 500MWh. 2. Solid-State Battery Industry Innovation Consortium: In December 2023, FAW, along with Dongfeng, Changan, and 27 other organizations, established the Solid-State Battery Industry Innovation Consortium, covering the entire chain from materials to vehicles. Among these, joint R&D in electrolyte materials is being conducted with the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Tsinghua University, while Lead Intelligent Equipment is collaborating on the development of all-solid-state battery production equipment. III. Mass Production Timeline and Periods 2025 Launch: Main Commercial Vehicle Models: Priority will be given to the FAW Jiefang J7 heavy truck (trunk logistics version) and JH6 light truck (urban distribution version). The J7 heavy truck will be equipped with a 150kWh semi-solid-state battery pack, offering a driving range 25% higher than traditional lithium batteries, reaching over 600 kilometers, meeting the needs for round-trip transportation in a single day. 2026 Expansion: High-End Passenger Vehicles: Plans include equipping the Hongqi EHS9 facelift model with a semi-solid-state battery, featuring a 120kWh battery pack, with a CLTC driving range exceeding 1,000 kilometers. It will also support fast charging (80% charge in 10 minutes). 2027 Pilot: All-Solid-State Battery Models: A limited edition of the Hongqi S9 supercar will be equipped with all-solid-state battery samples, targeting a driving range of 1,200 kilometers, with a cycle life meeting 10 years/300,000 kilometers usage requirements. IV. Capacity Planning Short-term capacity (2025-2026): Relying on Farasis Energy's toll processing: 2GWh of semi-solid-state battery capacity at Farasis Energy's Ganzhou base has been secured, specifically for FAW Jiefang commercial vehicles. This base commenced production in June 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 80% by 2025. Medium and long-term capacity (2027-2030): Self-construction + Joint Ventures: According to FAW's "15333" new energy strategy, an investment of 5 billion yuan is planned for the construction of a solid-state battery R&D and pilot production base in Changchun Automotive Industry Park, with a planned capacity of 5GWh. Additionally, a joint venture with industry alliance members will establish a full-scale all-solid-state battery production base in Shenzhen, aiming for a 20GWh capacity target by 2030. V. Introduction to FAW and Patents China FAW Group Co., Ltd. (FAW) is a centrally-administered state-owned large automobile enterprise group, established in 1953, headquartered in Changchun, covering the R&D, production, and sales of complete vehicles and parts. In the field of solid-state batteries, FAW has laid out patent applications. Its public patents (such as CN114583224A) mainly involve composite solid electrolyte membranes and battery technologies, aiming to enhance ionic conductivity and interface stability through material optimization, demonstrating a technical path from laboratory R&D to industrial application. VI. FAW Solid-State Battery Updates [Target End of 2027] On December 5, 2025, at the 2025 Tenth New Automotive Technology Cooperation Ecosystem Exchange Conference (WNAT-CES 2025) held in Suzhou, Jiang Wentu, Vice President of the Hongqi Brand Operations Committee of FAW, stated that FAW, in collaboration with 27 units, is jointly tackling solid-state battery R&D. Currently, a 66Ah cell prototype has been completed, and it is accelerating towards mass production. By the end of 2027, FAW's solid-state batteries will be installed in high-end flagship sedans and SUVs under the Hongqi brand, entering mass production. For the 14th Five-Year Plan, FAW aims to achieve total vehicle sales exceeding 5 million units by 2030, including over 1.2 million units for the Hongqi brand, over 2 million units for the overall self-owned brands, and over 3 million units for NEVs. [66Ah All-Solid-State Cell] On October 23, 2025, according to information on FAW's official website, FAW has completed the trial production and verification of a 66Ah all-solid-state cell. As early as May 27, 2020, during the Two Sessions, FAW announced that, taking Hongqi as an example, in its strategic planning, the "QiYi·Dengfeng" new energy technology strategy was released, with clear goals set for 2025, including the commercialization of solid-state batteries, achieving a pure electric driving range of 1,000 kilometers, and a 40% share of new energy products. By 2030, the commercial application of distributed drive technology and fuel cell technology, with a 60% share of new energy products. FAW has already developed a 20Ah all-solid-state sample cell, with an energy density of up to 375Wh/Kg, and plans for small-scale demonstration production in 2027. [Collaboration with Farasis] On March 1, 2024, FAW Jiefang and Farasis Energy signed an intention cooperation framework agreement in Changchun, Jilin. Farasis' semi-solid-state batteries will be first introduced into FAW Jiefang's commercial vehicle products, becoming the first globally to apply semi-solid-state batteries in the commercial vehicle market. [Solid-State Battery Commercialization Strategy] On May 27, 2020, during the 2020 National Two Sessions, Xu Liuping, National People's Congress representative, Party Secretary, and Chairman of FAW, revealed that regarding NEVs, FAW has set clear strategic goals and implementation paths. Taking Hongqi as an example, in its strategic planning, the "QiYi·Dengfeng" new energy technology strategy was released, with clear goals set for 2025, including the commercialization of solid-state batteries, achieving a pure electric driving range of 1,000 kilometers, and a 40% share of new energy products. By 2030, the commercial application of distributed drive technology and fuel cell technology, with a 60% share of new energy products. Currently, the Hongqi pure electric E-HS3 has been officially launched, and the C+ class E115 will enter mass production this year, with a driving range of 600 kilometers. The newly developed FME platform will also enter mass production in H2. According to SMM forecasts, all-solid-state battery shipments will reach 13.5 GWh by 2028, while semi-solid-state battery shipments will reach 160 GWh. Global lithium-ion battery demand is projected to reach approximately 2,800 GWh by 2030, with the EV sector's lithium-ion battery demand showing a CAGR of around 11% from 2024 to 2030, ESS lithium-ion battery demand at a CAGR of about 27%, and consumer electronics lithium battery demand at a CAGR of roughly 10%. Global solid-state battery penetration is estimated at about 0.1% in 2025, with all-solid-state battery penetration expected to reach around 4% by 2030, and global solid-state battery penetration potentially approaching 10% by 2035. **Note:** For further details or inquiries regarding solid-state battery development, please contact: Phone: 021-20707860 (or WeChat: 13585549799) Contact: Chaoxing Yang. Thank you!

December 17 news: The SM2603 contract opened at 5,744 yuan/mt and finally closed at 5,758 yuan/mt, up 0.17%. The highest price was 5,776 yuan/mt and the lowest was 5,732 yuan/mt during the daytime session. Trading volume was 130,800 lots, and open interest stood at 276,107 lots. Today's futures fluctuated upward, rising after opening then falling. Cost side, despite coke prices falling by 50 yuan/mt, which eased cost pressure to some extent, core raw material manganese ore prices remained firm. Supply side, operating rates were stable at alloy plants in major northern production areas, while rates were lower at southern plants. Spot silicon-manganese prices in production areas were below most enterprises' cost levels, leaving manufacturers under significant loss pressure and reluctant to offer retail quotations. Demand side, HBIS Group's December SiMn alloy price was set at 5,770 yuan/mt, down significantly from November's price of 5,820 yuan/mt. This price is below most enterprises' costs, putting downward pressure on the SiMn alloy market.

[SMM Daily Coal & Coke Briefing] Coking Coal Market: Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was offered at 1,500 yuan/mt. Low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan was offered at 1,480 yuan/mt. Fundamentals, raw material side: Coal mines focused on safety in production, with supply maintaining the status quo. Downstream, affected by weakening market sentiment, wait-and-see sentiment was relatively heavy. Order signing at coal mines performed averagely, with some high-priced coal types experiencing inventory buildup. However, domestic coal mine safety incidents still occurred, leading to a localized tightening of coking coal supply, providing some support for coking coal prices. In summary, coking coal prices have limited downside room in the short term. Coke Market: The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching was 1,845 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching was 1,705 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching was 1,490 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching was 1,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, multiple regions reactivated orange alerts for heavy pollution, leading coke enterprises to cut production passively, tightening supply. However, shipments from coke enterprises were hindered, with inventory buildup still occurring. Demand side, the market was in the off-season, end-use consumption demand was weak, and environmental protection-related controls intensified. Maintenance at steel mill blast furnaces increased, daily average hot metal production decreased, and the rigid demand for coke further reduced. Steel mills primarily purchased as needed. In summary, coke prices remained under pressure, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the coke market may be in the doldrums in the short term. [SMM Steel]

On December 16, 2025, multiple steel mills in Yunnan Province issued announcements regarding price adjustments for rebar, using HRB400E Ф20 as the benchmark. The price for Ф20 specification remains unchanged, while the Ф18 specification is raised by 200 yuan/mt, and all other specifications are raised by 100 yuan/mt. SMM closely follows market changes and has adjusted the representative price for the Kunming market in the national rebar price index from HRB400E Ф18 to HRB400E Ф20.

SMM December 17 - SS futures showed a rebound trend. Last night, the US released non-farm payroll and unemployment data. Today, metal futures collectively rebounded, with SS following the upward trend and breaking through 12,400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures prices were low at the morning opening and spot market quotes remained at low levels, spot quotes also rebounded as futures recovered. With the rebound in SS futures, market confidence was boosted, and low-price transactions during the day were moderate. The most-traded SS futures contract stopped falling and rebounded. At 10:30 a.m., SS2602 was quoted at 12,345 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premium/discount for 304/2B was in the range of 325-525 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 12,600 yuan/mt, and in Foshan was 12,600 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, the price was 23,775 yuan/mt, and in Foshan was 23,775 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi, the price was 23,000 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan, the price was 7,600 yuan/mt. This week, the US Fed interest rate cut landed as expected, but as the positive factor had already been priced in by the market, the boost from macro sentiment was limited. Although SS futures surged at one point, with the clear year-end policy stabilization tone, further stimulus expectations faded, and upward momentum in futures was noticeably insufficient, overall showing a weak rebound pattern of retreating after a rapid rise. The spot market performance was even weaker. At the beginning of the week, only low-priced resources saw a slight increase in transactions, with downstream players generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude and restocking willingness remaining low. Traders reported persistent insufficient orders, and the year-end demand contraction trend has become a foregone conclusion. The supply-demand imbalance further intensified, with social inventory increasing slightly by 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt, and destocking pressure becoming more evident. Although mainstream steel mills frequently announced planned production cuts for December, the actual production schedule reduction may only be 4.15%, far below expectations. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, actual transaction prices frequently showed hidden declines. Meanwhile, nickel pig iron and ferrochrome prices continued to decline, with cost support persistently weakening. Overall, the current stainless steel market faces triple pressures: a vacuum in macro drivers, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance, and collapsing cost support. Although futures were briefly driven by external factors, their own momentum is lacking. Short-term upward momentum is expected to remain insufficient, with certain downside risks still present.

SMM December 17: The most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened at 16,820 yuan/mt, and fluctuated downward to around 16,690 yuan/mt due to position reductions by bulls, then fluctuated rangebound. It touched a low of 16,680 yuan/mt before closing at 16,735 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt or 0.83%, marking a third consecutive day of decline. Supply side, environmental protection-related controls were recently implemented in multiple areas of north and east China, restricting the transportation of waste lead-acid batteries and prompting some secondary lead smelters to cut production, further reducing secondary lead ingot output. Meanwhile, spot lead ingot availability from primary lead smelters remained tight, with suppliers generally holding back sales and adopting a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, most battery producers maintained purchasing as needed. Although some companies intended to purchase on dips, the overall sentiment remained cautious. If downstream battery producers' stockpiling willingness remains modest ahead of the New Year holiday, the room for a lead price rebound may be limited. Data source statement: Data not from public sources are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not as decision-making advice.