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SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Summary on July 7 Futures Market: On Friday, LME zinc opened at $2,739.5/mt. With mixed longs and shorts in the early session, LME zinc fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $2,757/mt during European trading hours. Subsequently, longs reduced their positions, causing LME zinc to fluctuate downward throughout the session, touching a low of $2,722.5/mt during the night session. It finally closed at $2,735.5/mt, down by $2.5/mt or 0.09%. Trading volume decreased to 4,385 lots, and open interest fell by 883 lots to 206,000 lots. On Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2508 contract opened sharply lower at 22,340 yuan/mt. With longs continuing to reduce their positions in the early session, SHFE zinc declined throughout the session, touching a low of 22,225 yuan/mt. It finally closed higher at 22,240 yuan/mt, down by 170 yuan/mt or 0.76%. Trading volume decreased to 57,395 lots, and open interest fell by 1,726 lots to 126,000 lots. Macro: Trump: May send 12 or 15 tariff-related letters on Monday; Several Trump administration officials hint that some trade negotiations may exceed the deadline; Trump signs the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill; Musk announces the establishment of the "America Party," prompting Trump to blast it as "absurd"; US media: US Defense Secretary Hegseth once again suspends arms shipments to Ukraine on his own initiative; Israel and Hamas' first round of indirect ceasefire negotiations in Qatar end without results; OPEC+ agrees to increase production in August; The Ministry of Finance decides to take relevant measures against some medical devices imported from the EU in government procurement activities; The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: More efforts will be made to promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. Spot Market: Shanghai: At the end of the week, there were many traders offering goods in the market. The futures market remained at a high level, dampening buying sentiment. Downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement due to high prices, resulting in sluggish spot transactions and a subsequent pullback in spot premiums. Guangdong: Overall, downstream consumption in Guangdong is currently sluggish. Meanwhile, with zinc prices maintaining a fluctuating trend, downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, mostly for just-in-time procurement based on sales. Traders lowered premiums to facilitate sales, but transactions remained relatively average. Spot premiums in Guangdong continued to decline on Friday. Tianjin: On Friday, the futures market maintained a fluctuating trend. Affected by heavy rain, downstream operations in Tianjin were disrupted, leading to poor buying sentiment. A small number of enterprises restocked based on just-in-time needs. Traders' quotes remained basically stable, but overall market transactions were poor. Ningbo: On Friday, traders' quotes in Ningbo remained basically stable. The futures market maintained a fluctuating trend, and downstream demand for raw materials remained mediocre, resulting in mediocre spot transactions. Social Inventory: On July 4, LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 mt to 112,325 mt, a decrease of 0.31%. According to SMM communication, as of Thursday (July 3) this week, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven locations tracked by SMM was 82,400 mt, an increase of 2,900 mt from June 26 and an increase of 1,800 mt from June 30. Domestic inventory recorded an increase. Zinc Price Forecast: On last Friday, LME zinc recorded a small bearish candlestick, with market focus shifting to the July 9 deadline for tariffs. After this date, the US will impose tariffs on countries that have not yet been charged, sparking market concerns and leading to a decline in LME zinc prices. On the same day, SHFE zinc also recorded a small bearish candlestick. Amidst poor domestic consumption, there was a certain degree of inventory buildup in social inventory. The domestic expectation of inventory buildup fluctuated, but the relatively low social inventory of zinc ingots continued to provide support for zinc ingot prices. It is expected that SHFE zinc will mainly consolidate with fluctuations today.

SMM, May 28, 2025: Dear Users, Hello! To better serve our customers and enhance the efficiency of the SMM database, we have optimized and adjusted the existing classification of the non-ferrous database, and the revamped database will be available starting from June 2025. This adjustment will not involve any changes to the data. After this adjustment, the classification of each metal in the non-ferrous database will be unified in the format of "Metal Category – Metal – Product – Type - ***". The "Type" will be further subdivided to include: Index, Price (Price Forecast, Spot Price, Futures Price, Import Profit/Loss, Other Related Data), Capacity, Production, Operating Rate, Other Supply Data (Supply, Maintenance and Related), Demand, Supply-Demand Balance, Inventory (Futures Exchange Inventory, SMM Inventory, Other Related Data), Import, Export, Port Data, Cost and Profit, and Other Related Data. We have taken the classification of "Copper Cathode" as an example, as shown in the table below:

This week, the macro front was relatively stable. Economic data such as US CPI and non-farm payrolls led to fluctuating market expectations regarding the rate cut, but a September rate cut by the US Fed is almost certain. Domestically, CPI in August rose by 0.6% YoY. The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 45 billion yuan of 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on September 20, and export data showed positive YoY growth. All these factors bolstered macro sentiment. Fundamentals side: This week, domestic aluminum operated steadily. No news of start production has been heard yet for the capacities awaiting resumption in Guizhou and Sichuan. During the week, the proportion of aluminum liquid in north-west China and other regions continued to rise. The spot market for aluminum billets saw active transactions, stimulating the enthusiasm for primary aluminum billet production. It is expected that the total domestic casting ingot production in September will mainly decrease MoM. Overseas market: During the week, Press Metal Bintulu in Malaysia experienced a sudden fire accident. According to the company's announcement, the incident caused 100 electrolysis cells in the plant's third phase to stop operating, with recovery possibly taking four months, affecting an annualized aluminum capacity of approximately 100,000 mt. The monthly reduction is estimated to be around 8,300 mt. However, there are market rumors that the entire 320,000 mt capacity of the plant's third phase has been shut down. SMM will continue to monitor the situation of this plant. During the week, domestic primary aluminum imports remained closed. The overseas aluminum ingot turnover was limited, and some downstream feedback indicated the presence of Russian aluminum rods in the market, which performed well in cost-performance and may see continual increases. Demand side: Domestic aluminum processing enterprises maintained a growth trend in operating rates, transitioning gradually into peak season for the aluminum plate/sheet and strip and foil sectors. Orders for construction extrusions also began to increase, driven by the season's improvement in domestic construction activities. The aluminum wire and cable segment continued to be in a concentrated delivery period, with positive operating rates. During the week, domestic spot aluminum inventory showed strong depletion, spot aluminum in Henan and Shanghai turned to premium status, and some regions reported good aluminum billet orders and active downstream restocking. In conclusion, on the macro front, the US August CPI YoY was 2.5%, basically in line with expectations, and the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points next week. Meanwhile, after the first debate between Harris and Trump, Harris' support rate rebounded, and the market revised the "Trump trade," leading bears to reduce their positions in industrial products. During the week, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "Work Plan for the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Covering Cement, Steel, and Aluminum Industries (Draft for Comments)," indicating that aluminum will soon be included in the national carbon emissions market. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum operated steadily in the short term, while overseas production cuts emerged, suggesting that the supply side will gradually peak in the future. Meanwhile, the demand side is entering peak season, with robust aluminum demand, strong depletion in aluminum social inventory, and fundamental supply-demand dynamics turning to strong support. Next week, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upward against a backdrop of strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties. SMM forecasts that next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,000-19,990 yuan/mt, while LME 3M aluminum will operate in the range of $2,330-2,480/mt. It is still necessary to pay attention to aluminum consumption and macro changes in the future.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis in July 2024 reached 587,000 mt, down 3.77% MoM, up 19.9% YoY. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.758 million mt, up 14.1% YoY. In July, the price spread between domestic and overseas markets favored domestic producers' export plans, but the rapid narrowing of the price spread, together with the onset of the traditional off-season and the initial impact of overseas anti-dumping measures, led to a sharp decline in orders from some producers to the US and other regions, weakening the MoM export volume. In Q4, overseas anti-dumping policies are expected to be implemented. In the short term, overseas end-users will maintain multiple procurement measures, but long-term orders remain uncertain. It is expected that the export volume in August will maintain a YoY growth trend.

Zinc market is currently weak on both supply and demand fronts. Domestic zinc concentrate production fell to 313,800 mt in June due to lower ore grade, floods and maintenance. While zinc concentrate import window was open, large inflows are unlikely due to shipping schedules and overseas smelter demand. Port self-pickup zinc concentrate TC have fallen below 2,000 yuan/mt in metal content, with imported concentrate TC less than zero, and domestic concentrate TCs have dropped to a historical low near 2,000 yuan/mt in metal content. Additionally, due to the ongoing mine shortage and low profitability, domestic smelter production is expected to decrease by nearly 40,000 mt MoM in July to 507,000 mt. Smelter raw material inventory is down to 16.87 days, and excluding by-products and sulfuric acid, losses are around 1,600 yuan/mt. This mine shortage is directly impacting smelters, perpetuating the weak supply-side trend. On the consumption side, despite favorable policy expectations from the 20th Third Plenary Session, market response has been subdued. Large-scale bond issuances and trillion yuan investments have not been fully rolled out, and end-user orders remain low. The off-season impact is clearly visible across galvanizing, die-casting, and zinc oxide sectors. Additionally, high temperatures and rainy conditions are hampering outdoor construction, with rebar and HRC data continuing to show weak performance. Exports are further challenged by rising ocean freight costs, fewer ships, and trade barriers, resulting in a generally weak export performance. With supply reductions, the social inventory rising to a historical high of 200,000 mt also points to weak consumption. While strong support from raw materials exists, weak consumer demand is putting downward pressure on zinc prices. It's important to monitor guidance from macroeconomic sentiment.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,822.5/mt, dipped lower than $9,822.5/mt, then fluctuated upwards to a high of $9,933/mt, before falling back at the end of the trading session to close at $9,858/mt, down 0.17%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest reached 333,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2408 contract opened at 79,970 yuan/mt, hit a high of 80,280 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, fluctuated widely during the session, and fell back to a low of 79,920 yuan/mt at the end of the session, finally closing at 80,020 yuan/mt, up 0.19%. Trading volume reached 32,000 lots, and open interest reached 195,000 lots. Macro side, as Powell did not dampen market expectations of a rate cut, the US dollar index declined, which was bullish for copper prices. Additionally, the continuously decreasing COMEX inventories also raised market concerns. Fundamentals, copper price was lower than the previous day, with some downstream producers seizing the opportunity to restock, leading to an increase in procurement, though the increase was limited. The market is awaiting the upcoming US CPI data, and it is expected that the center of copper prices will not change significantly.

On Monday, SHFE was closed due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. LME copper opened at $9,831/mt, initially rose slightly, then fell back, hitting a low of $9,808/mt during the session. At the end of the trading session, it surged to a high of $9,913/mt and closed at $9,881/mt, with a gain of 0.11%. Trading volume was 56 lots, and open interest was 334,000 lots. On the macro front, US non-farm payrolls data far exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate in May rose to a two-year high, causing the market to be skeptical about the new non-farm payrolls data and to focus more on the CPI data to be released this week. On the fundamentals side, after the copper price fell, the enthusiasm for procurement by downstream processing enterprises increased to some extent, but since the copper price remained high, a large part of the market was still in a wait-and-see state. Attention will be on whether the copper price can continue to fall. In terms of prices, it is expected that the copper price is unlikely to rise significantly.

Dear visitors/subscribers, Thank you for your continued support. We would like to inform you that due to the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival, all of our news updates will be temporarily suspended on June 10 and some of our English weekly reports for the week of June 3-7 will be delayed by one day to June 11. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. We appreciate your understanding and look forward to sharing our updates with you again soon. Our English weekly reports that will be published on June 11 include aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, steel, PV, and CBMB. Wishing you a happy Dragon Boat Festival! Best regards

Aluminium is crucial in various industries, including mobility and transportation, construction and buildings, packaging, aerospace, and defence. It is integral to nearly all energy generation, transmission, and storage technology facets. Sandvik Coromant, a global leader in metal cutting tools and tooling solutions, is hosting a virtual event tailored for manufacturers in the aerospace, automotive, defence, space, and general engineering sectors. The event titled, ' Navigating the Artistry of Aluminum Machining,' will be broadcasted live on Thursday, June 27, 2024. It will focus on tangible solutions to streamline the aluminium machining process, empowering manufacturers to meet these demands effectively. With mounting environmental regulations and consumer preferences leaning towards sustainability, manufacturers have become increasingly interested in lightweight materials such as aluminium. Yet machining aluminium components poses distinct challenges. “We understand the obstacles our customers face when machining complex aluminum components more than just the traditional internal combustion engines, and aluminum is in every industry. This interactive event will equip attendees with innovative tooling strategies and programming techniques to achieve burr-free milling, reduced cycle times, lower cost-per-part, and radical productivity boosts,” said Rick Crabtree, product solution manager for aluminium at Sandvik Coromant. Key topics to be covered are: Aluminum: Revolutionizing Manufacturing Component Challenges Mastering the Machining of Intricate Aluminum Components: Cylinder Blocks and Heads Unveiled Precision Engineering: Shorter, Stiffer Cutting Tools and Advanced Machining Technologies Redefine Aluminum Machining Unlocking Efficiency: Programming Strategies for Burr-Free Milling, Reduced Cycle Time, and Cost-Effective Production Sandvik Coromant, a trusted name in the industry, is leading the charge towards a sustainable future. In collaboration with its customers and partners, it provides cutting-edge tooling solutions to the world's engineering sectors. With over eight decades of practical experience, the company has built a solid reputation for its metal cutting and machining expertise. This depth of knowledge enables Sandvik Coromant to view every challenge as an opportunity for innovation, fostering collaboration and pioneering solutions that drive progress. With a focus on promoting sustainability, efficiency, and growth, the company strives to shape a future where innovation flourishes. As a vital member of the global industrial engineering group Sandvik, Sandvik Coromant is committed to shaping tomorrow's world together. Source: https://www.alcircle.com/news/sandvik-coromant-s-upcoming-event-to-highlight-the-artistry-of-aluminium-machining-111012

DMC prices in the online shopping mall of Shandong-based factories opened at 15,200 yuan/mt this week, up 200 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. Leading DMC plants didn’t release offers, while others offered at 15,500 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt. Mainstream transaction price was 15,500 yuan/mt. Post-holiday prices of silicone products moved up. Domestically, post-holiday prices of silicone products moved up. DMC prices in the online shopping mall of Shandong-based factories opened at 15,200 yuan/mt this week, up 200 yuan/mt from pre-holiday levels. Leading DMC plants didn’t release offers this week, and then others increased offers or remained silent. Under this circumstance, downstream buyers rushed to purchase goods. Underpinned by strong demand, prices of silicon products hiked, especially MVQ. The main reason for the MVQ price uptick boiled down to two reasons. One reason was that downstream enterprises with stronger willingness to produce had robust MVQ demand. The other was that bad weather delayed arrivals, leading to MVQ supply tightness. Silicone oil price shot up due to low inventory and high cost. In addition, a delay in start-up of new capacity undermined the risk of intensifying oversupply. There was an expectation of strong performance of a peak season. Looking forward, SMM estimated that prices of silicone products, mainly DMC, will keep hiking. With the arrival of the peak season and good terminal market, silicone product demand will be stronger. In addition, DMC plants’ low inventory have a big boost to DMC prices.