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》View SMM Cobalt and Lithium Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Spot Price Trends of SMM Cobalt and Lithium Products Nickel prices this week showed a pattern of "strength overseas and stability domestically," with LME nickel performing strongly while domestic SHFE nickel prices saw relatively mild gains. The LME nickel price settled at $15,320/mt on Friday, up 1.39% WoW, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2512) closed at 122,150 yuan/mt on Friday, up 0.67% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 122,350 yuan/mt, up 550 yuan/mt WoW. The average spot premium for Jinchuan nickel this week was 2,500 yuan/mt, increasing by 100 yuan/mt WoW, while the premium range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands was -100–200 yuan/mt, showing a slight rise. Since entering October, spot transactions have improved, and spot premiums for nickel cathode have stabilized and risen accordingly. On the macro front, the ongoing US government shutdown crisis continued to raise concerns about US dollar liquidity. Additionally, conflicting signals from the US Fed created uncertainty; while market expectations for interest rate cuts exist, some "hawkish" remarks also contributed to volatility, affecting market sentiment. Developments in China-US economic and trade relations were also a focus this week, with China scheduled to travel to Malaysia for trade consultations with the US. The communique from the domestic Party's Fourth Plenum outlined key priorities for the next five-year development plan, and market expectations for subsequent measures to stimulate domestic demand and promote industrial upgrading provided short-term support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a sideways movement, with the core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract seen at 120,000–124,000 yuan/mt. Inventory-wise, Shanghai Bonded Zone stocks this week were approximately 3,400 mt, down 300 mt WoW. Domestic social inventory stood at about 48,800 mt, showing an inventory buildup of 1,094 mt WoW.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,991/mt, fluctuated downward during the Asian session, then rose before falling back in the European session, hitting a high of $1,999.5/mt. Due to bulls reducing positions, LME lead dropped, touched a low of $1,984/mt before closing at $1,989.5/mt, down 0.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2510 contract opened at 16,890 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,915 yuan/mt before fluctuating downward, and closed at 16,870 yuan/mt after hitting a low of 16,850 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the macro front: The US ADP employment data for August recorded 54,000, below the expected 65,000. Trump signed an executive order to formally implement the US-Japan trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on almost all Japanese goods. World Gold Council: Gold ETFs attracted $5.5 billion in August, with outflows in Asia offset by strong buying in Europe and the US. PBOC: On September 5, it will conduct 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repo operations with a maturity of three months. Two departments issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth in the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry, 2025-2026," strengthening efforts in CPU, high-performance AI servers, and hardware-software collaboration, and conducting adaptability tests for AI chips and large models. : SHFE lead reversed its upward trend and continued to consolidate after pulling back. Suppliers followed the market to sell, while some refused to budge on prices. Downstream enterprises showed weak purchasing interest, and spot market transactions saw no improvement. Meanwhile, smelters' quotations for primary lead showed minor differences, with some expanding discounts against SHFE lead. Mainstream origins were quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 30 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. For secondary lead, regional supply disparities were evident, and smelters' selling strategies diverged further. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Inventory: On September 4, LME lead inventory fell by 3,350 mt to 251,200 mt. As of September 4, SMM's social inventory of lead ingots across five regions totaled 66,100 mt, down 1,000 mt from September 1. Today's lead price forecast: This week, maintenance at secondary lead smelters increased, further tightening regional supply, especially in the largest production area—Anhui, where production significantly declined, prompting downstream enterprises in the region and surrounding areas to shift purchases toward primary lead. Meanwhile, due to the SCO summit and military parade in the first half of the week, vehicle operations were restricted in parts of North and Central China, prolonging delivery cycles for smelters. Some downstream enterprises continued to consume lead ingot inventories from social warehouses, leading to a continued decline in social inventory. Additionally, with the conclusion of events such as the military parade on September 3, vehicle restrictions in some regions were lifted, leading to an increase in spot market supply. However, current lead consumption remains subdued, and there is a risk of social inventory buildup for lead ingots in the subsequent period. Caution is warranted regarding its potential drag on lead price trends. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market exchanges, and processed by SMM based on its internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

》View SMM Cobalt and Lithium Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis 》Subscribe to View Historical Spot Price Trends of SMM Cobalt and Lithium Products This week, nickel prices fell amid macro pressures from a stronger US dollar and a weak fundamental backdrop, with market sentiment being cautious. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2510 contract declined this week, closing at 119,610 yuan/mt on Friday, down 0.48% for the day and 0.99% over the past five trading days. LME nickel prices also weakened, with the latest quote at $14,940/mt, down 1.74% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 121,170 yuan/mt this week, down 950 yuan/mt WoW. The premium for Jinchuan nickel fluctuated significantly, with the average premium increasing by 400 yuan/mt WoW. Traders showed strong reluctance to budge on prices, and the premium range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel remained at -100-300 yuan/mt this week. Meanwhile, due to the decline in futures prices, downstream procurement volume increased this week. From a macro perspective, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined. This week, several US Fed officials spoke, maintaining a generally hawkish stance and being cautious about interest rate cuts. Bostic still expects one rate cut this year but is concerned about the labour market. The US dollar index continued to rebound, reaching near the 98 level, putting pressure on dollar-denominated nickel prices. Domestically, China will introduce a new-type policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure areas such as the digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon sectors, which will help boost market confidence and stabilize economic growth. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums within the price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt. In terms of inventory, the Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 4,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 40,900 mt, with destocking of 1,019 mt WoW.

Futures: LME copper opened at $9,737.5/mt overnight. Prices initially fluctuated downward to test $9,722/mt before fluctuating considerably and finally closing at the day's high of $9,752/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 11,000 lots with open interest at 267,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2509 contract opened at 78,840 yuan/mt overnight, initially testing 78,890 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound to 78,760 yuan/mt, then consolidating sideways to finally close at 78,840 yuan/mt, down 0.23%. Trading volume stood at 11,000 lots with open interest at 145,000 lots. Macro-wise, Ukraine sought $100 billion in arms purchases in exchange for security guarantees, Trump advanced plans for Russia-Ukraine leader talks and trilateral negotiations, Hamas accepted a new Gaza ceasefire proposal, while China's State Council focused on stimulating consumption and stabilizing the property market. [SMM Copper Morning Brief] News: (1) Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the White House for the first time in six months, meeting with US President Trump. Trump stated that if all goes well, the US, Russia and Ukraine would hold trilateral talks, which could potentially end the Russia-Ukraine conflict if successful. (2) Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council on August 18. The meeting noted China's economy had maintained stable growth with new achievements in high-quality development this year. Spot: (1) Shanghai: On August 18, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2509 contract were quoted at 170-280 yuan/mt, averaging 225 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt MoM. Imported copper arrivals continue, likely pressuring spot premiums which may decline today. (2) Guangdong: On August 18, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract ranged from 10-70 yuan/mt, averaging 40 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt MoM. Post-delivery, suppliers refused to budge on prices but tepid demand caused premiums to jump initially and then pull back. (3) Imported copper: On August 18, warrant prices were $42-54/mt (QP August), flat MoM; B/L prices at $46-60/mt (QP September), down $2/mt MoM; EQ copper (CIF B/L) at $20-30/mt (QP September), flat MoM, for late-August to mid-September arrivals. Morning session saw active inquiries but limited deals. (4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on August 18, futures closed at 78,980 yuan/mt, down 130 yuan/mt from previous session. Spot premiums/discounts averaged 225 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt MoM. Recycled copper raw material prices stayed flat MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper traded at 73,400-73,600 yuan/mt, unchanged. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap narrowed to 1,014 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod stood at 740 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, some enterprises in Jiangxi reported that since September, relevant authorities have explicitly abolished "tax rebates and subsidies." Currently, enterprises are either reducing capacity or fully adopting recycled copper raw materials with invoices for raw material procurement. (5) Inventory: On August 15, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 200 mt to 155,600 mt. On August 18, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 938 mt to 25,498 mt. Prices: On the macro front, no new factors affected copper prices, and subsequent attention should focus on the actual progress of related events. Supply side, concentrated arrivals of imported copper drove inventory growth, with suppliers actively offloading goods ensuring ample imported supply. However, domestic copper cathode supply remained tight, while registered SX-EW copper began entering the market. Demand side, slight recovery signs emerged after late August. Inventory-wise, as of August 18, SMM's mainstream copper inventories nationwide increased by 8,100 mt WoW to 133,700 mt. Overall, with no fresh macro drivers and fundamentals showing looser supply, slightly recovering demand but accumulating inventories, copper prices were expected to face upward pressure today. [Data Source Statement: Data beyond publicly available information are derived from public sources, market exchanges, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] [The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The provided information is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Notes on August 11 Futures: On the previous night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2509 contract opened at 20,685 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,695 yuan/mt, a low of 20,625 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,665 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 30,800 lots, and the open interest was 219,000 lots. On the previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,612.5/mt, with a high of $2,621.5/mt, a low of $2,605/mt, and closed at $2,615/mt. Macro: (1) In the past year, at least a dozen provinces and cities have issued encouraging policy documents or proposed to establish or have already established state-owned asset merger and acquisition funds. Local state-owned asset merger and acquisition funds have upgraded from being "capital providers" to "industrial integrators," becoming the "cornerstone" for strengthening and supplementing local industrial chains. This has not only revitalized existing state-owned assets but also achieved the transformation of state-owned assets from "asset management" to "capital management." (Positive ★) (2) The UK, Denmark, France, Greece, and Slovenia issued a joint statement at the United Nations Security Council on the situation in Gaza, strongly condemning the Israeli government's decision to further expand military operations and calling on Israel to immediately withdraw the decision. (Positive ★) Fundamentals: (1) During the week of August 8, SHFE aluminum futures inventory recorded 113,614 mt, a decrease of 3,913 mt or 3.33% from the previous week. In the past month, SHFE aluminum futures inventory has increased by a cumulative 10,417 mt or 10.09%. (Negative ★) (2) On August 8, LME aluminum inventory recorded 470,600 mt, an increase of 1,075 mt or 0.23% from the previous day. In the past week, LME aluminum inventory has increased by a cumulative 7,775 mt or 1.68%. In the past month, LME aluminum inventory has increased by a cumulative 79,800 mt or 20.41%. (Negative ★) (3) According to SMM statistics, on August 11, the inventory of primary aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption areas was 587,000 mt, an increase of 23,000 mt from the previous Monday and 23,000 mt from the previous Thursday. (Negative ★) Primary Aluminum Market: On the previous trading day's morning session, the center of the front-month SHFE aluminum contract continued to fluctuate rangebound near 20,700 yuan/mt, following the weakness of the night session. In east China, as it was the weekend and the aluminum price center fell, market transactions improved slightly, with transactions mainly at parity with the SMM average price. Later, as the market slightly recovered, offers turned to premiums, but trading volume declined. On the previous trading day, SMM A00 aluminum was reported at 20,650 yuan/mt, a decrease of 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a discount of 50 yuan/mt against the 08 contract, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the central China market, downstream enterprises restocked at low prices, and market transactions improved slightly, with premiums and discounts remaining stable, with transactions mainly at parity to a discount of 10 yuan/mt against the SMM central China average price. SMM central China A00 aluminum recorded a price of 20,540 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2508 futures contract, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -110 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was trading at a discount of 160 yuan/mt against the 2508 futures contract. Recycled aluminum raw materials: The spot price of primary aluminum fell by 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM A00 spot aluminum closed at 20,650 yuan/mt, while aluminum scrap market prices generally increased. Currently in the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with purchases mainly driven by immediate needs. On the previous trading day, the centralized quotes for baled UBC aluminum scrap ranged from 15,400 to 15,900 yuan/mt (tax-excluded), while shredded aluminum tense scrap (with water content) was quoted between 17,000 and 17,500 yuan/mt (tax-excluded). Baled UBC aluminum scrap prices remained unchanged from the previous trading day, while shredded aluminum tense scrap (with water content) and automotive/motorcycle wheel hubs saw a decrease of 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. Last week, the price center of the aluminum scrap market was expected to further align with off-season levels, but due to the impact of the transitional period for policies related to secondary aluminum, it may instead push up raw material purchase prices. The tight supply of shredded aluminum tense scrap (with water content) has intensified, with prices expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,000 to 17,500 yuan/mt (tax-excluded). Baled UBC aluminum scrap remains suppressed by weak end-use demand, with prices expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,300 to 15,800 yuan/mt (tax-excluded). Secondary aluminum alloy: On the futures market, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2511 futures contract opened at the lowest price of 19,980 yuan/mt on the previous trading day, reaching a high of 20,115 yuan/mt and closing at 20,110 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous trading day. The open interest was 8,574 lots, with a trading volume of 1,125 lots, and bulls were mainly reducing their positions during the day. In the spot market, SMM A00 aluminum prices fell by 40 yuan/mt from the previous day to 20,650 yuan/mt, while SMM ADC12 prices remained stable at 20,250 yuan/mt. On the previous trading day, aluminum prices ended their consecutive gains, and secondary aluminum market quotes were mostly stable with a wait-and-see attitude. In August, the secondary aluminum market is still constrained by tight aluminum scrap supply, with enterprises facing continuous cost pressure, supporting ADC12 prices. However, weak consumption performance combined with high social inventory levels will limit price increases. It is expected that secondary aluminum alloy prices will fluctuate rangebound at the beginning of the month. In the short term, close attention should be paid to the progress of end-use demand recovery and the improvement of aluminum scrap supply. Summary: On the macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have risen, with macro sentiment remaining positive, providing a boost to base metals. The US has imposed tariff hikes on India, while India and Russia have signed a deepened cooperation agreement on aluminum, quietly heating up risk-averse sentiment in the market. From a fundamental perspective, there have been relatively small changes in terms of supply, with electrolytic aluminum production remaining stable with a slight increase. In terms of costs, the total weekly cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,738 yuan/mt, showing minimal changes, and the industry's high profits persist. Key points: Demand side, consumption from end-users to processed products remained weak amid off-season impacts. Growth in previously strong supporting industries like home appliances and PV slowed down, while some aluminum export orders also declined. The construction sector continued to exhibit worse-than-seasonal contraction. Social inventory of aluminum has breached the 550,000 mt threshold. Although uneven arrivals caused temporary inventory data fluctuations last week, high aluminum prices during the off-season may further dampen consumption, with the short-term inventory buildup trend remaining unchanged. Overall, macro tailwinds coupled with potential aluminum supply risks drove prices to rebound to elevated levels. However, substantial inventory buildup pressure persists during the consumption off-season. After favorable sentiment is digested, the price center of aluminum is expected to pull back, with the 21,000 yuan/mt level remaining under pressure. Similarly, most processors showed higher acceptance for prices below 20,500 yuan/mt, where just-in-time procurement capacity has been partially validated. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution in decision-making and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM News on August 1: According to SMM's communication and understanding, as of Monday this week (July 31), the total zinc ingot inventory across seven locations tracked by SMM was 103,200 mt, an increase of 4,900 mt from July 24 and a decrease of 500 mt from July 28, indicating a slight decline in domestic inventory. During the week, in Shanghai and Guangdong, due to normal arrivals but fewer cargo pick-ups by downstream enterprises, inventory increased. However, in Tianjin, cargo pick-ups by downstream enterprises increased slightly during the week, with a slight delay in arrivals, leading to a significant decline in inventory. In Zhejiang, arrivals during the weekend were partially digested, also resulting in a decline in inventory. Overall, inventory in the original three locations increased by 200 mt, while inventory across seven locations decreased by 500 mt.

SMM News on July 31: According to SMM, as of July 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM reached 73,000 mt, an increase of 1,600 mt from July 24 and 1,300 mt from July 28. This week, production at primary lead smelters gradually resumed, coupled with the resumption of production at secondary lead enterprises and the commissioning of new capacity, leading to a phased increase in supply. The available spot cargoes in the market increased significantly WoW. Meanwhile, the premium of spot lead continued to decline. In South China, the quoted price for primary lead dropped from a premium of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price last week to parity against the SMM #1 lead average price this week, and even to a discount of 30-20 yuan/mt through negotiation. In addition, the overall price center of lead moved downward, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises improved relatively in the second half of the week. However, they preferred cargoes self-picked up from production sites of smelters with price advantages. Some suppliers tended to transfer their cargoes to delivery warehouses for hedging, and the social inventory of lead ingots continued to rise.

Futures Market: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,010/mt, fluctuating rangebound in the Asian session. Entering the European session, it slightly rose to a high of $2,017.5/mt, with bulls and bears vying for control. LME lead then dipped to a low of $1,994/mt before rallying again in the tail end, closing at $2,015/mt, up 0.17%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2508 contract opened at 16,950 yuan/mt, touching a low of 16,910 yuan/mt early in the session. After bears reduced their positions, it rallied, reaching a high of 16,990 yuan/mt during the session, and closed at 16,965 yuan/mt, up 0.18%. Macro Front: US Treasury Secretary Bessent: If inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered. If secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, the US will urge Europe to follow suit. Trump Media & Technology Group announced that its total purchases of Bitcoin reserves have reached $2 billion, and the group plans to continue acquiring Bitcoin and related assets. The President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission will visit China and hold the 25th China-EU Leaders' Meeting. China's Ministry of Commerce expressed firm opposition to the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, which included Chinese companies and financial institutions on the sanctions list. Five departments, including the Hainan Branch of the People's Bank of China, issued the Implementation Rules for Cross-border Asset Management Pilot Business in the Hainan Free Trade Port. The automotive industry is "combating the rat race," with Guangdong and Anhui further regulating the competitive order of the NEV industry. The sixth round of inspections by the 20th Central Committee has completed its deployment. Favorable macro expectations drove non-ferrous metals into positive territory, with SHFE lead holding up well. Suppliers actively expanded discounts to sell, with some further widening discounts after the first round of quotations. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, with some large-discount cargoes being transacted. In major producing areas, primary lead smelters had limited inventory, with some spot orders quoted firmly, offering factory delivery at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price. Secondary lead smelters' reluctance to sell at low prices eased, with quotations increasing relatively. Secondary refined lead was quoted at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price for factory delivery. Inventory: On July 21, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,475 mt to 264,925 mt. As of July 21, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,300 mt, an increase of 7,900 mt from July 14 and an increase of 2,300 mt from July 17. Today's Lead Price Forecast: After lead prices stopped falling and rebounded, the enthusiasm of lead smelters for selling has recovered, especially secondary lead smelters planning to resume production as needed. The spot circulation volume in some regions has increased, providing downstream enterprises with more purchasing options. Currently, there is no significant improvement in end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market. Downstream enterprises are only making just-in-time procurement, resulting in a slow digestion of social inventory of lead ingots. Additionally, some suppliers continue to transfer inventory to social warehouses, and the growth trend of social warehouses remains unchanged. Furthermore, due to the maintenance status of some primary lead enterprises in Central China, the issue of regional tight supply still exists. Therefore, the growth trend of social inventory of lead ingots has slowed down compared to last week. Overall, lead prices may hold up well in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.

Futures Market: Overnight LME copper opened at $9,718/mt, initially touching a high of $9,744/mt before gradually drifting lower with considerable volatility. Prices tested $9,681.5/mt near session close, eventually settling at $9,682/mt with a 0.23% gain. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots while open interest stood at 280,000 lots. Overnight SHFE copper's most-traded 2508 contract opened at 78,700 yuan/mt, hitting an intraday high of 78,810 yuan/mt before gradually pulling back to 78,510 yuan/mt. Prices fluctuated widely thereafter, testing 78,510 yuan/mt again near closing and finishing at 78,590 yuan/mt, up 0.26%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots and open interest stood at 178,000 lots. [SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News: (1) On July 10 local time, US President Trump announced 35% tariffs on Canadian imports effective August 1. In an NBC interview, Trump also revealed plans to impose uniform tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trading partners. (2) China's Ministry of Commerce spokesperson responded to inquiries about government measures targeting transshipment and smuggling of critical minerals. The spokesperson stated export controls on strategic minerals like antimony and gallium - which have clear dual-use military/civilian applications - align with international norms. To prevent illicit outflows, China's Export Control Coordination Mechanism Office launched a special crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling in May, with details available on the ministry's website. While fulfilling legitimate civilian demands from other countries, China rigorously reviews export license applications and approves only compliant requests. Spot Market: (1) Shanghai: SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2507 contract were reported at a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 60 yuan/mt on July 10, averaging 15 yuan/mt premium - down 55 yuan/mt MoM. With firm front-month spreads, Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to decline further today. (2) Guangdong: #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month contract ranged from a 100 yuan/mt discount to a 50 yuan/mt premium on July 10, averaging a 25 yuan/mt discount - up 5 yuan/mt MoM. While copper prices continued to pull back and suppliers held firm on prices, downstream restocking enthusiasm remained muted with trading activity weaker than the previous session. (3) Imported Copper: Warrant prices stood at $40-50/mt (QP July), averaging $5/mt higher MoM. B/L prices were at $50-74/mt (QP August), averaging $3/mt lower MoM. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at $14-30/mt (QP August), averaging $4/mt higher MoM. Quotations reference cargoes scheduled for mid-to-late July arrival. Overall, the B/L price spread narrowed, the warrant-B/L inversion weakened, and EQ B/L prices remained firm. (4) Secondary copper: On July 10, secondary copper raw material prices decreased by 200 yuan/mt WoW. Guangdong bare bright copper prices stood at 73,000-73,200 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 889 yuan/mt, decreasing 142 yuan/mt WoW, while the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 650 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices continued to decline yesterday, many secondary copper raw material suppliers proactively contacted secondary copper rod enterprises to sell their materials. However, with unresolved overseas macro uncertainties, numerous secondary copper rod enterprises suspended raw material procurement and plan to resume purchases after copper prices stabilize. (5) Inventories: On July 10, LME copper cathode inventory rose by 975 mt to 108,100 mt; SHFE warrant inventory increased by 393 mt to 21,729 mt. Prices: On the macro front, first, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated considerations to initiate interest rate cuts in autumn and anticipates two rate cuts this year, reinforcing market expectations of a US Fed monetary policy pivot. Second, Chile, a major copper mining country, seeks US tariff exemptions for copper. If successful, this would alleviate prior market concerns about potential high tariffs. Currently, no significant new macro variables have emerged, with market focus centered on whether the proposed 50% copper tariffs will be implemented. On the fundamental side, supply-side supplier willingness to sell strengthened ahead of contract rollover, resulting in relatively loose market liquidity. Demand-side procurement sentiment slightly improved due to copper price corrections in the prior two days. As of Thursday, July 10, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories increased marginally by 800 mt to 143,700 mt from Monday, up 11,900 mt WoW. Weekly inventories have risen for two consecutive weeks but remain 244,900 mt YoY lower than 388,600 mt during the same period last year. Prices: No new macro drivers have emerged. Despite consecutive inventory buildups, low inventory levels continue to support copper prices from the downside. [The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid relying solely on this information for independent judgments. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.] Click to view SMM Metal Database [This information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessments by SMM's research team. It is provided for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid relying solely on this information for independent judgments. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary on June 23 Futures Market: On Friday, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2508 contract opened at 20,425 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,465 yuan/mt, a low of 20,400 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,425 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 56,000 lots, and open interest was 248,000 lots. On Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,525/mt, with a high of $2,564/mt, a low of $2,513/mt, and closed at $2,561.5/mt. Trading volume was 13,000 lots, and open interest was 3,000 lots. Macro: (1) Fed Governor Waller: Interest rate cuts could potentially occur as early as the July meeting. Fed's Barkin: Current data does not show an urgent need for interest rate cuts. Fed's Daly: Economic fundamentals are moving in a direction that may require interest rate cuts. (Neutral ★) (2) Trump: The US military conducted air strikes on three major Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow, and Iran must immediately agree to end the war. Iranian Foreign Minister: Nuclear facilities can be rebuilt even if destroyed, and technical knowledge "cannot be bombed away." (Bullish ★) Fundamentals: (1) According to SMM statistics, as of June 23, SMM's social inventory of primary aluminum ingots in China was 464,000 mt, an increase of 15,000 mt from last Thursday on a WoW basis. (Bearish ★) (2) There have been no changes to the policy of expanding the scope of the trade-in policy for consumer goods. The progress of subsidy fund utilization is in line with expectations, and central government funds will be disbursed in the third and fourth quarters. (Bullish ★) (3) According to customs data, China's exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip in May 2025 were 278,900 mt, up 0.5% MoM and down 4.4% YoY. China's exports of aluminum foil in May 2025 were 121,300 mt, down 0.5% MoM and down 6.8% YoY. (Neutral ★) Primary Aluminum Market: On Friday morning, due to low aluminum ingot inventory and continued destocking, the price center of SHFE aluminum shifted upwards. However, against the backdrop of the off-season, actual demand remained weak, and the futures market pulled back. The spot market saw slightly improved trading due to weekend stockpiling demand, but downstream purchase willingness remained low. In east China, the market offered at +5 yuan/mt above the SMM average price in the morning. Due to weak off-season demand, market quotes and transactions were mostly concentrated at parity with the SMM average price. On Friday, SMM A00 aluminum was reported at 20,720 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with a premium of 180 yuan/mt against the 07 contract, unchanged from the previous trading day. In central China, due to weekend stockpiling demand, market trading improved slightly in the morning, with spot premiums holding steady. The spot market was at parity with the SMM central China average price, and the price spread with east China held steady. On Friday, SMM central China A00 aluminum was recorded at 20,560 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between central China and east China was 160 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the 2507 contract. Secondary Aluminum Raw Materials: Last Friday, spot primary aluminum prices fell by 50 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day, with SMM A00 aluminum closing at 20,720 yuan/mt. The overall aluminum scrap market prices pulled back. As the off-season in June progresses halfway, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs. Last Friday, the concentrated quotes for baled UBC aluminum scrap ranged from 15,350-15,850 yuan/mt (tax excluded), while shredded aluminum tense scrap quotes were concentrated at 15,800-17,300 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive prices). Regionally, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and other regions closely followed aluminum price movements, with price adjustments ranging from 50-100 yuan/mt. In Henan, Foshan, Guizhou, and other regions, price adjustments lagged behind aluminum price movements, with prices remaining flat MoM. By product, both baled UBC and shredded aluminum tense scrap prices pulled back by 100 yuan/mt MoM. Considering the difficulty in actual shipments, aluminum scrap suppliers adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards price adjustments amidst aluminum prices fluctuating at highs. Secondary Aluminum Alloy: Last Friday, SMM A00 aluminum prices fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 20,720 yuan/mt, while domestic SMM ADC12 prices decreased by 50 yuan/mt to 19,900-20,200 yuan/mt. Amidst the continued decline in aluminum prices, market quotes diverged, with some enterprises actively lowering quotes due to sluggish demand, while others remained firm due to cost pressures. Overall, the rigid cost support and weak off-season demand continued to clash, leading to ADC12 prices fluctuating rangebound. As the off-season deepens, it is expected that ADC12 prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term, requiring continuous attention to raw material circulation and marginal fluctuations in off-season demand. In the import market, CIF quotes for imported ADC12 remained stable at $2,420-2,450/mt, while imported spot prices decreased by 100 yuan/mt to around 19,200 yuan/mt, with immediate import losses slightly expanding to the 600 yuan/mt range. Local ADC12 quotes in Thailand remained stable at 82 Thai baht/kg (tax excluded). Summary: On the macro front, there was a clear divergence in statements from US Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with geopolitical conflicts elevating market bullish sentiment. On the fundamental front, domestic primary aluminum operating capacity remained stable, with the proportion of liquid aluminum maintaining high levels, and market casting ingot volumes remaining tight. SMM learned that individual aluminum plants slightly increased casting ingot volumes this week, but it remains difficult to change the overall tight market casting ingot supply. On the demand side, overall, most downstream sectors are in the traditional off-season, with significant production cuts feedback in the downstream sector in central China, weakening local spot transactions, and persistent large discounts in market transaction prices. From the perspective of downstream demand sectors, the weakening off-season demand in the PV and home appliance sectors cannot be ignored, with a significant decline in the operating rates of related sectors. The wire and cable sector experienced a decline in operating rates due to the completion of the previous delivery period and high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the destocking pace has slowed, with low inventory still providing support to the futures market, but spot premiums and discounts have gradually pulled back. Overall, the domestic favorable macro environment remains unchanged. On the fundamental side, the low inventory of domestic aluminum ingots provides support for aluminum prices. However, the weakening of downstream demand during the off-season is evident, and spot premiums/discounts may fall back from highs. Going forward, it is necessary to focus on changes in inventory and demand. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.] 》Click to view the SMM aluminum industry chain database 》Subscribe to view historical spot metal prices from SMM

Futures Market: Overnight, LME lead opened lower with a gap at $1,988.5/mt. After touching a low of $1,983/mt in the Asian session, it fluctuated upward. Entering the European session, it reached a high of $1,999.5/mt before pulling back slightly at the end of the day, closing at $1,992/mt, down 0.08%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2507 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,990 yuan/mt. After touching a low of 16,890 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, it fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,950 yuan/mt, and closed at 16,925 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. 》Click to view historical SMM lead spot quotes Macro Aspects: Trump indicated that car tariffs may be raised in the near future. He also lashed out at Powell, urging a 200 basis point interest rate cut. Trump claimed that the US and China had reached an agreement, to which Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded during a regular press conference on the 12th. China's MIIT: Supports automakers' commitment to a "60-day payment term" to promote the healthy development of the industry. Spot Market Fundamentals : SHFE lead prices fluctuated upward. Suppliers quoted prices in line with the market and maintained discounted quotes. Electrolytic lead smelters, however, quoted relatively firm prices, continuing to offer premiums of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price for ex-factory delivery. Secondary lead smelters showed slightly better enthusiasm for shipping, with more quotes than the previous day. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price for ex-factory delivery. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, preferring electrolytic lead smelters as their supply source. Regional differences in spot market transactions still existed. Inventory: On June 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 4,775 mt to 268,750 mt. As of June 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations tracked by SMM reached 54,700 mt, an increase of approximately 800 mt from June 5 and an increase of 1,300 mt from June 9. 》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database Today's Lead Price Forecast: This week, the production of primary lead smelters has steadily increased, while secondary lead enterprises are generally in a state of production reduction or suspension due to factors such as environmental protection, losses, and insufficient scrap supply, leading to a regional tightening of lead ingot supply. Due to the limited number of secondary lead enterprises shipping and their firm pricing, lead consumption has shifted towards the primary lead market. However, as the lead consumption market is still in the off-season, the improvement in spot lead market transactions has been limited. Next week, the front-month SHFE lead contract will enter delivery. The expectation of suppliers transferring inventory to delivery warehouses before delivery may still allow for an increase in social inventory of lead ingots. In addition, we need to continue to monitor the impact of environmental protection inspections, scrap battery supply, and other factors on the production of secondary lead enterprises, as well as the impact of maintenance at electrolytic lead smelters producing delivery brands in mid-month on the trend of lead prices.

During the week, SMM refined nickel inventory across six major regions totaled 39,855 mt, down 364 mt WoW. Nickel prices rose slightly during the week. As the futures market climbed last week, domestic spot premiums/discounts declined. However, overall market transactions were sluggish, with slight destocking.

According to the SMM survey, as of last Friday, the total social inventory of tin across three regions monitored by SMM reached 7,342 mt, marking an inventory buildup of 230 mt WoW. Last week, SHFE tin prices showed an upward trend. Specifically, at the beginning of the week, SHFE tin futures closed with a 1.89% increase, settling at 247,670 yuan. This indicates that the market held an optimistic view of tin demand at the start of the week. During mid-week, SHFE tin prices continued to fluctuate. The latest price on January 7 was 252,070 yuan, with a change of 450 yuan and 0.18%, reflecting a slight rise before stabilizing. In the following days, although SHFE tin prices experienced some fluctuations, the overall trend remained relatively stable without significant ups and downs. In summary, SHFE tin prices last week exhibited an initial rise followed by stabilization. Early in the week, prices rose significantly, driven by overseas market demand, with notable market volatility. However, as the week progressed, the trend gradually shifted towards stabilization. Looking ahead, SHFE tin price movements are expected to continue being influenced by multiple key factors, including domestic and international economic conditions, policy adjustments, and the supply and demand dynamics of the tin industry. Therefore, continuous monitoring and in-depth analysis of market trends and industry developments are crucial.

Last week, SMM refined nickel inventory across six major regions totaled 40,219 mt, down 950 mt WoW. Nickel prices generally declined last week, with market transactions relatively active in the first half of the week, but turning sluggish afterward as enterprises completed stockpiling. Domestic refined nickel supply remained sufficient, premiums and discounts continued to decrease, and inventory saw a slight reduction.

According to the SMM survey, as of last Friday, the total social inventory of tin ingots across three regions monitored by SMM stood at 7,112 mt, down 431 mt WoW. At the beginning of the week, the most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 243,000 yuan/mt. In subsequent trading sessions, prices continued to show an upward trend, with the latest price once reaching 247,000 yuan/mt. As the trading days progressed, SHFE tin prices gradually pulled back. During mid-week trading, prices showed a slight dip, with the latest price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract hitting 241,000 yuan/mt. Approaching the weekend, SHFE tin prices rebounded slightly. According to the latest data, the closing price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract has surpassed the opening price at the beginning of the week. Notably, during Friday's trading, SHFE tin prices once touched a high of 245,000 yuan/mt, showing a significant increase compared to the beginning of the week. In summary, the price trend of the most-traded SHFE tin contract last week experienced an upward movement at the start of the week, a slight dip mid-week, and a rebound towards the weekend. Overall, market prices fluctuated significantly but gradually showed an upward trend over time. Looking ahead, the price trend of SHFE tin is expected to continue being influenced by multiple key factors, including domestic and international economic conditions, policy adjustments, and the supply and demand dynamics of the tin industry. Therefore, continuous attention and in-depth analysis of market dynamics and industry trends are crucial.