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December 16 news: North China ports: South African high-iron 30-30.5 yuan/mtu, up 1.34% WoW; South African semi-carbonate 34-34.5 yuan/mtu, down 0.58% WoW; Gabon 42.9-43.5 yuan/mtu, up 1.41% WoW; Australian lumps 43.4-43.9 yuan/mtu, up 4.30% WoW; South African medium-iron 36.9-37.4 yuan/mtu, up 0.81% WoW. South China ports: South African high-iron 30.3-30.8 yuan/mtu, down 1.61% WoW; South African semi-carbonate 36-36.7 yuan/mtu, down 2.68% WoW; Gabon 41.1-42 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps 41.5-42.2 yuan/mtu, up 1.21% WoW; South African medium-iron 37.1-37.6 yuan/mtu, up 1.32% WoW. Supply side, overseas manganese mines successively announced offers this week, all up 0.05 yuan WoW. NMT announced its manganese ore shipment offers to China for January 2026: Mn36% (min) South African semi-carbonate lumps at $4.15/mtu; UMK announced its January 2026 manganese ore price to China for South African semi-carbonate lumps at $4.15/mtu. Cost support for China's imported manganese ore strengthened, leaving little room for ore prices to pull back. Demand side, purchase performance for manganese ore diverged between the north and south markets. In the north market, driven by bullish sentiment in the manganese ore market and expectations of production capacity coming online in the Inner Mongolia SiMn production hub later, SiMn plants showed active willingness to purchase manganese ore, with active inquiries at ports, leading to higher transaction prices. The south SiMn market maintained low operating rates, with some enterprises cutting production during the off-season. Southern alloy plants mainly purchased on-demand. Combined with inventory buildup at Qinzhou port, overall demand in the southern manganese ore market was somewhat cushioned, resulting in a mild price increase. Overall, firm manganese ore offers on the supply side raised the direct cost of China's imported manganese ore. Manganese ore traders showed low willingness to sell at low prices, keeping ore prices firm. The duration of this firmness still depends on demand absorption from downstream alloy plants.

SMM reported on December 16 that SS futures showed a further weakening and downward trend. Today, as the US non-farm payrolls data release approached, market concerns over macro policy uncertainty grew, leading to a broad decline in metal futures. SS futures followed suit, pulling back further and briefly falling below 12,300 yuan/mt during the session. In the spot market, influenced by the continued decline in SS futures, market sentiment turned noticeably pessimistic, and stainless steel spot prices followed the downward trend. Although traders lowered their offers, cautious market sentiment amid the price decline made transactions quite difficult. The most-traded SS futures contract weakened and declined. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2602 contract was quoted at 12,340 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the Wuxi area, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 380-580 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was 8,100 yuan/mt; the average price for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil was 12,650 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 23,775 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; the price for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was 23,000 yuan/mt; and the price for cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, but since the positive impact had already been priced in by the market, the boost to macro sentiment was limited. Although SS futures surged briefly, with the year-end policy stabilization tone becoming clear and further stimulus expectations fading, upward momentum in the futures market was noticeably insufficient, resulting in an overall weak rebound pattern characterized by a retreat after a rapid rise. The spot market performance was even weaker. At the beginning of the week, only low-priced resources saw a slight increase in transactions, while downstream players generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude with low restocking willingness. Traders reported persistently insufficient orders, and the year-end demand contraction trend has become a foregone conclusion. The supply-demand imbalance further intensified, with social inventory increasing slightly by 0.07% WoW to 947,600 mt, making destocking pressure increasingly evident. Although mainstream steel mills frequently announced planned production cuts for December, the actual reduction in the production schedule may only be 4.15%, far below expectations. Amid the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, hidden price reductions in actual transaction prices frequently occurred. Meanwhile, prices for nickel pig iron and ferrochrome continued to decline, further weakening cost support. Overall, the current stainless steel market faces triple pressures: a vacuum in macro drivers, a fundamental supply-demand imbalance, and collapsing cost support. Although futures were briefly driven by external factors, they lack intrinsic momentum. Short-term upward momentum is expected to remain insufficient, with certain downside risks still present.

In 2025, the global nickel pig iron (NPI) market, influenced by the interplay of supply-demand dynamics, cost fluctuations, and policy environment, exhibited an overall trend of "fluctuations in the first half of the year, followed by initial stability and subsequent weakness in the second half." Significant divergence was observed between the two core production regions, China and Indonesia. Price trends shifted from cost-supported increases at the beginning of the year to off-season demand-driven declines by year-end. Throughout the year, the industry revolved around two fundamental themes: "capacity release and cost constraints on the supply side, and volatility in the stainless steel industry on the demand side." Supply side, global NPI production maintained YoY growth but with prominent regional divergence. Indonesia, leveraging the continuous release of new capacity and advantages in raw material supply, remained the core source of incremental output, with full-year production up 15.08% YoY. New capacity was concentrated in areas such as Obi Island and Halmahera. Overall, in H1, Indonesia was affected by the rainy season and slow RKAB quota approvals, leading to tight nickel ore supply which pushed up costs. NPI metal content fluctuated MoM from January to June, with some smelters operating at low rates due to losses. After July, as the rainy season subsided and quotas were secured, nickel ore prices pulled back, alleviating cost pressure. In H2, with the arrival of the peak consumption season, NPI physical content and metal content rebounded MoM from August to October. Smelter profitability improved, coupled with new capacity releases, leading to steady production growth. Entering the traditional off-season in November-December, stainless steel demand decreased and inventories remained high, putting NPI prices under pressure. Some smelters conducted maintenance and implemented production cuts, resulting in a marginal decline in output. Domestic supply in China remained under persistent pressure except for improvements during the peak season. In 2025, the Chinese NPI market showed a trend of "fluctuating downward throughout the year with ongoing supply-demand tug-of-war." Full-year high-grade NPI production was down 19.31% YoY. In H1, affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, tight nickel ore supply pushed up raw material costs. Coupled with low NPI product prices, smelters generally faced losses. Production declined MoM for two consecutive months in January-February. Although there was a slight recovery from March to May due to the end of maintenance at some smelters and a recovery in stainless steel demand, production fell significantly again in June as product prices dropped to the year's low. In H2, high-grade NPI continued to operate at low rates in July due to losses. From August to October, benefiting from the peak consumption season, production resumptions at enterprises, and steady growth in stainless steel demand, production staged a rebound. Entering the traditional off-season in November-December, end-use demand was weak, NPI prices hit a five-year low, and persistent cost pressure led to increased production cuts and maintenance at smelters, resulting in consecutive monthly production declines. The core market contradiction throughout the year centered on the tug-of-war between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Environmental protection policies and adjustments to stainless steel production schedules further exacerbated production volatility, keeping overall industry profitability under pressure. On the demand side, as the core downstream of NPI, 300-series stainless steel production increased by 7.48% YoY for the full year, but demand showed significant phased fluctuations. In H1, the Q1 "March peak season" materialized, with stainless steel demand recovering after the Chinese New Year. Disruptions in raw material supply pushed up spot prices, and expanded steel mill profits boosted production scheduling enthusiasm. In Q2, impacted by the mid-April U.S.-China tariff storm, stainless steel futures and spot prices fell sharply. Continuous losses at steel mills, coupled with the arrival of the traditional consumption off-season, led to noticeable social inventory buildup, slowing production growth, and phased soft demand. In H2, the Q3 "September peak season" began, with stainless steel production increasing MoM, correspondingly raising procurement demand for high-grade NPI and briefly supporting a rebound in NPI demand. After November in Q4, entering the traditional off-season, weak end-use consumption caused continuous declines in finished stainless steel prices and difficult destocking. Multiple stainless steel enterprises initiated production cut plans, with simultaneous contractions in 300-series and 200-series production. The better economics of stainless steel scrap further squeezed demand, weakening NPI buying interest and reducing demand-side support. Price-wise, high-grade NPI movements were highly linked to supply-demand fundamentals, showing an "N"-shaped fluctuation pattern: rising in Q1, correcting in Q2, stabilizing in Q3, and falling sharply in Q4. In Q1, supported by recovering stainless steel demand and short-term supply contraction in Indonesia, the average price of 10-12% Indonesian high-grade NPI (delivered port, duty-paid) rose from a low of 935.5 yuan/mtu (delivered port, duty-paid) to 1,033 yuan/mtu, a gain of 10.42%. In Q2, escalated U.S.-China tariffs triggered negative feedback in the stainless steel market, causing high-grade NPI prices to fluctuate downward from highs, with a cumulative drop of 11.62% within the quarter. In Q3, both supply and demand sides provided support during the traditional peak season, keeping prices hovering at highs. In Q4, demand collapsed and prices fell below the cost support line, hitting a five-year low in November, with a slight stabilization near year-end relying on the cost floor. Cost side, nickel ore prices from the Philippines and Indonesia fluctuated due to the rainy season and demand volatility. RKAB quota issues also created sentiment tension. Rising auxiliary material costs domestically and in Indonesia jointly pushed up global NPI smelting costs. Domestic smelters operated at losses for most of the year. Although Indonesia had significant cost advantages, by Q4, price declines approached the cost line, making cost the key bottom support limiting the maximum price decline. Overall, the core contradiction in the 2025 NPI market is the supply-demand mismatch between "supply increments driven by capacity release in Indonesia" and "slowing growth and periodic weakness in global stainless steel demand." Coupled with rising cost pressures, the industry remained trapped in a cycle of "profit recovery and loss contraction" throughout the year. The global supply center continued shifting toward Indonesia, while the linkage between prices and the stainless steel industry chain significantly strengthened.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Daily Review] Futures: On December 16, platinum's most-traded contract PT2606 and palladium's most-traded contract PD2606 continued their strong performance from the previous day, rising rapidly in the morning session and pulling back slightly in the afternoon, fluctuating upward overall, with both hitting new highs in trading volume : PT2606 closed up at 485.75 yuan per gram, up 2.46% from the previous trading day's settlement price; PD2606 closed up at 423.85 yuan per gram, up 4.73%. In terms of futures trading: On December 16, PT2606's trading volume was 92,961 lots, and PD2606's trading volume was 52,938 lots, both setting new records since the futures were listed; PT2606's open interest was 21,372 lots, an increase of 3,528 lots from the previous trading day; PD2606's open interest was 7,003 lots, an increase of 1,441 lots. Spot: SMM's spot platinum price rose 12 yuan per gram MoM to 464 yuan per gram; the Shanghai Gold Exchange traded 22 lots of spot platinum today, closing at 471.50 yuan per gram; SMM's spot palladium (imported) price rose 16 yuan per gram MoM to 398 yuan per gram. International markets: During yesterday's night session, NYMEX's most-traded platinum and palladium contracts fluctuated upward, with NYMEX platinum 2601 closing at $1,815.9 per ounce, up 3.03%, and NYMEX palladium 2603 closing at $1,622.0 per ounce, up 5.14%.

SMM Steel, December 16 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total resource shipments in mainstream markets this week reached 287,800 mt, up 54.48% WoW from last week’s shipment level. By market: Table 1: Comparison of Arrivals in Mainstream Markets Data source: SMM Steel Shanghai Market: Shipments in the Shanghai market increased slightly WoW. Specifically, shipments from Northeast and East China resources remained flat, while those from North China decreased slightly, and shipments from mainstream South China resources increased significantly. Looking ahead, recent hot-rolled coil prices have moved sideways, with weak market transactions amid the off-season. Merchants' ordering enthusiasm is moderate, and arrivals in the Shanghai market are expected to fluctuate at a medium level in the short term. Chart 1: Arrivals in the Shanghai Market Data source: SMM Steel Lecong Market: Shipments to the Lecong market increased significantly WoW. Specifically, driven by the combined efforts of two major local mainstream resources, arrivals in South China increased noticeably. Going forward, as the price spread between South China and East China is relatively small, the likelihood of significant additional shipments remains low. Meanwhile, WG is expected to maintain a high shipment level as most export orders have completed production. Therefore, arrivals in the South China market are projected to remain relatively high in the short term. Chart 2: Arrivals in the Lecong Market Data source: SMM Steel SMM releases hot-rolled shipment data for mainstream market flows every Tuesday. To subscribe or follow more data, please scan the QR code below.

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SMM December 16 News: Key Points: Shenzhen AONE New Materials has released its self-developed new silicon carbon anode adhesive, J ONE. This product features a unique molecular structure design that combines high strength with high flexibility, effectively suppressing the expansion of pure silicon anodes and more than doubling the cycle life compared to traditional systems. It also withstands harsh electrolyte environments, marking a critical breakthrough in the mass production application of high-silicon/pure silicon anode batteries. Shenzhen AONE New Materials Co., Ltd. has independently developed the new-generation adhesive J ONE, which offers durability and high strength-flexibility balance in harsh electrolyte conditions, ushering in a new era for the mass production of high-silicon/pure silicon anode batteries. I. Current Status of Silicon Anode Adhesive Technology and AONE’s Breakthrough The silicon-based anode adhesive market currently relies primarily on improved traditional systems, such as "CMC + SBR" or "PAA-based adhesives," applied in silicon oxide (SiOx) or low-content silicon-carbon composite materials. These materials have relatively low cycle life requirements (typically 300–500 cycles), for which existing adhesives are still adequate. However, when applied to high-silicon carbon (silicon content > 50%) or pure silicon-carbon anodes, their limitations become evident: PAA-based polymers offer high strength but poor flexibility, while SBR provides high flexibility but low strength. Due to their significant polarity differences, they fail to achieve effective synergy in high-silicon or pure silicon-carbon anode applications, resulting in inadequate expansion suppression and limited cycle life. AONE’s new J ONE adhesive, through its unique molecular structure design, combines high strength and high flexibility. It tightly encapsulates pure silicon-carbon anode particles and forms a flexible network, controlling electrode expansion within an acceptable ideal range and increasing cycle life to more than twice that of traditional "PAA + SBR" systems. This makes the commercial application of pure silicon-carbon anodes in the 3C digital sector a reality. II. Features of AONE J ONE Silicon Carbon Anode Adhesive 1. Electrolyte tolerance: Based on J ONE’s microphase separation structure, it blocks electrolyte solvent penetration paths, reducing the adhesive’s swelling rate in the electrolyte to below 50% while maintaining good mechanical properties. 2. Expansion suppression capability: In pure silicon-carbon anodes, through the synergistic effect of covalent and hydrogen bonds, it effectively buffers volume changes and prevents active material detachment. 3. Balance of strength and elongation: After immersion in electrolyte, its tensile strength is more than five times that of SBR, with an elongation at break exceeding 200%, forming a rigid-yet-flexible interfacial protective layer. 4. Significant improvement in electrical performance: It maintains stable interfacial impedance even under high-voltage conditions of 4.5 V, enabling high-silicon full cells to achieve > 1,000 cycles with a capacity retention rate of over 80%. III. AONE J ONE-U8 Adhesive Technology AONE is launching an iterative adhesive, J ONE-U8, which integrates multiple materials and engineering technologies to develop a multi-composite conductive adhesive suitable for high-proportion silicon-carbon applications. J ONE-U8 represents a new generation of adhesives that simultaneously offer high strength, high flexibility, and high conductivity. This technological breakthrough by AONE follows a series of original and disruptive products, such as new PAA, SBR, and S ONE. The J ONE adhesive inaugurates a new era for the 100% use of pure silicon-carbon anodes, further advancing the lithium battery industry to new heights. Note: PAA refers to the A ONE, P ONE, and BTP polyacrylate multipolymer water-based adhesive launched by AONE; SBR refers to the B ONE-Z series styrene-butadiene water-based adhesive based on acrylic copolymer modification launched by AONE; S ONE refers to the integrated conductive water-based adhesive launched by AONE. According to SMM forecasts, all-solid-state battery shipments will reach 13.5 GWh by 2028, while semi-solid-state battery shipments will reach 160 GWh. Global lithium-ion battery demand is projected to reach approximately 2,800 GWh by 2030, with the EV sector's lithium-ion battery demand showing a CAGR of around 11% from 2024 to 2030, ESS lithium-ion battery demand at a CAGR of about 27%, and consumer electronics lithium battery demand at a CAGR of roughly 10%. Global solid-state battery penetration is estimated at about 0.1% in 2025, with all-solid-state battery penetration expected to reach around 4% by 2030, and global solid-state battery penetration potentially approaching 10% by 2035. **Note:** For further details or inquiries regarding solid-state battery development, please contact: Phone: 021-20707860 (or WeChat: 13585549799) Contact: Chaoxing Yang. Thank you!

On December 16, global nonferrous metals markets experienced a collective correction, with nickel performing particularly weakly. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) fell 2.36% for the day, at one point dropping more than 3,000 yuan/mt during the session; LME nickel closed down 2.22% in sync, settling at $14,295/mt, reflecting strong market pessimism. Futures and spot markets weakened simultaneously: The spot market followed futures prices lower, with sluggish trading. Although the premium for Jinchuan refined nickel rose steadily from 2,500 yuan/mt in early November to the current 5,600 yuan/mt, spot market transactions were mainly small-scale, just-in-time procurement by downstream producers. Most enterprises had completed stockpiling during last month's nickel price decline, and purchase willingness weakened approaching year-end, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Furthermore, against the backdrop of persistently high spot premiums, traders' willingness to stockpile decreased, leading to subdued sentiment in spot transactions. Supply and demand situation: Although domestic nickel producers generally implemented production cuts in November (according to SMM data, November refined nickel production was 25,800 mt, down 28% MoM), the scale of cuts failed to effectively alleviate inventory pressure. SMM's social inventory for refined nickel reached 59,000 mt in December, with the inventory accumulation rate accelerating. In contrast, LME nickel inventory recently remained around 253,000 mt, indicating persistently weak downstream nickel demand, reduced export orders for enterprises, and a greater shift towards domestic delivery warehouse shipments. Cost perspective: The continued decline in nickel prices has pushed the industry towards the breakeven point. According to SMM data, the full cost for producing electrodeposited nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is 121,000 yuan/mt, while the cost for producing electrodeposited nickel from integrated MHP is 111,000 yuan/mt (after cobalt credit). Benefiting from cobalt price increases driven by the DRC cobalt ban, the cobalt credit value is approximately $4,700/mt. Current nickel prices have fallen below pyrometallurgical cost lines and are gradually approaching hydrometallurgical costs, making hydrometallurgical cost the current market focus for potential downside support. Currently, MHP raw material accounts for up to 45% of refined nickel production in China and Indonesia, becoming the primary source of global refined nickel supply growth. If nickel prices continue falling and break below hydrometallurgical costs, hydrometallurgical production lines would face losses, potentially triggering further production cuts. Additionally, the price of sulfur, a key auxiliary material in MHP, is as high as $540/mt, accounting for about 38% of MHP cost and becoming the largest component. If sulfur prices continue rising, they would further increase the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP, providing support for nickel prices. Short-Term Outlook: After breaking through key support levels, nickel prices have opened up downside room and are expected to remain in a volatile bottom-seeking phase in the short term. The bottom is supported by the cost of integrated MHP, leaving limited room for further declines. However, upside potential continues to be constrained by high inventory and weak demand fundamentals. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is projected to trade within a range of 112,000-116,000 yuan/mt.

Today, iron ore futures held up well, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 761, up 1.06% from the previous trading day. Traders sold at market prices; steel mills purchased as needed, with moderate inquiry volume. Market transaction sentiment was average. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 775-781 yuan, up 3-5 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Hebei, PB fines traded at 790-800 yuan/mt, up 3-5 yuan/mt from yesterday. According to SMM statistics, this week (December 13 to December 19), the impact from blast furnace maintenance on hot metal reached 1.8735 million mt, up 134,600 mt WoW. Due to environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Hebei, blast furnace operations faced constraints, leading to an overall decline in iron ore demand. The fundamentals remain bearish, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2601 contract opened at 83,780 yuan/mt. In the night session, it touched a high of 83,980 yuan/mt at opening, then, as bulls reduced positions, the center of copper prices fell straight to a low of 81,620 yuan/mt, finally closing at 82,150 yuan/mt, down 650 yuan/mt, a drop of 0.79%. Open interest reached 3,356 lots, decreasing by 463 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 7,651 lots, down 6,563 lots. On the macro front, market focus shifted from the interest rate cut itself to the uncertainty of its subsequent path, with significant divergence within the US Fed over future policy steps and a clear statement that decisions will strictly depend on economic data. Additionally, renewed concerns about an AI bubble collectively put copper prices under pressure. On the fundamentals side, supply arrivals were limited, but suppliers showed high willingness to sell, leading to a looser spot market supply. Demand side, despite the price pullback, market purchasing sentiment remained mediocre. SHFE copper contract 2601 closed at 91,840 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2601 contract price of 82,150 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is 92,830 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -990 yuan/mt between SHFE copper 2601 and the BC copper contract. The spread remained inverted and narrowed compared to the previous day.

Iron ore concentrate prices in the Tangshan area remained relatively stable, with 66% grade iron ore concentrate priced at 980-990 yuan/mt. Currently, the Level 2 environmental protection alert is in effect, leading to varying degrees of production restrictions at steel mills and mines, resulting in reductions in both supply and demand. The pace of vehicle transport has slowed down, and overall supply remains tight, providing some support for iron ore concentrate prices. On the demand side, steel mills may implement sintering restrictions again in the near term, but the impact on blast furnaces is limited. However, steel mills still maintain a strong desire to bargain down prices. It is expected that local iron ore concentrate prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] Coking coal market: Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was offered at 1,500 yuan/mt. Low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan was offered at 1,480 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material fundamentals, approaching year-end, major mines prioritized safety in production, but downstream acceptance of high-priced coal varieties remained low, making it more difficult for mines to conclude transactions. These coal varieties continued to see inventory buildup, while individual oversold varieties saw their online auction prices rebound slightly, with downstream buyers making appropriate purchases. In summary, some high-priced coal varieties still had room for price reductions. Coke market: The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching was 1,845 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quenching was 1,705 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching was 1,490 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quenching was 1,400 yuan/mt. Supply side, last week, the second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the cost of coal charged into blast furnaces also fell, resulting in only a slight contraction in coke plant profits and temporarily stable production enthusiasm. However, coke plant shipments were sluggish, and some coke plants continued to see coke inventory buildup. Demand side, end-use demand for finished steel products did not improve, blast furnace shutdowns and maintenance increased, hot metal production continued to decline, reducing demand for coke. Additionally, steel mills had a desire to bargain down prices and maintained just-in-time procurement. In summary, under the dual pressures of falling costs and weak demand, coke prices were expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with expectations for a third round of price cuts.[SMM Steel]

SMM December 16 News:        The most-traded SHFE zinc 2601 contract opened at 23,200 yuan/mt. After opening, bulls reduced their positions, causing the price center to shift downward and testing a low of 22,935 yuan/mt. Toward the session's close, bears reduced their positions, allowing zinc to recover some of its losses, ultimately closing down by 400 yuan/mt, or 1.71%, at 23,030 yuan/mt. Trading volume decreased to 139,000 lots, while open interest fell by 10,109 lots to 73,193 lots. SHFE zinc formed a bearish candlestick, with support provided by the 20-day and 60-day daily average moving averages. Currently, tightening domestic supply fundamentals offer some support to SHFE zinc, but lackluster downstream consumption limits upward momentum. Zinc prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

On December 16, 2025, the ex-factory price for high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,100-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the quotation was 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 25-50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the quotation for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the quotation for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. During the day, the ferrochrome market operated strongly and steadily, with retail quotations continuing to move higher and trading atmosphere improving. On the cost side, the rebound in chrome ore prices and the arrival of high-priced futures at ports led to a slight increase in ferrochrome costs, providing support for price rises. On the supply and demand side, although demand was affected by expectations for stainless steel production cuts, current retail supply was tight, and pre-holiday stockpiling considerations pushed quotations higher to some extent. The ferrochrome market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, with attention on the direction of the new round of steel mill tender prices. On the raw material side, on December 16, 2025, the spot quotation for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 51-52.5 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 40-42% South African raw ore was 46.5-48 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder was 52.5-53.5 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 54-55 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 57-58.5 yuan/mtu; the quotation for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder was 59-60 yuan/mtu, up 1 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, the quotation for 40-42% South African fines was 263-265 $/mt. During the day, the chrome ore market operated steadily, with prices rising and inquiry and transaction atmosphere favorable. The rebound in chrome ore prices, combined with the inversion of high-priced futures, strengthened traders' mentality to hold prices firm. Ferrochrome producers released procurement demand, increasing inquiry enthusiasm and boosting market activity. South African fines saw limited price increases due to ample port inventory; Zimbabwean fines saw more significant increases due to port congestion at Beira Port. Recently, market inquiries focused mainly on lump ore, with limited supply leading spot quotations to follow the rise, showing an overall upward trend. On the futures side, the consecutive overseas market futures quotation for 40-42% South African fines remained flat at $263/mt, highlighting firm price intentions and supporting the chrome ore market. Considering stocking demand for 2026, many domestic traders have recently engaged in purchasing operations, with futures transactions relatively concentrated. Some traders also expect stainless steel production cuts may lead to pushing for lower prices, waiting to make plans after the new round of steel mill tender prices are announced. The chrome ore market is expected to operate steadily in the short term.

SMM December 16 news: The most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,870 yuan/mt in the day. After briefly rising above the daily average line in early trading, it fluctuated between 16,840 yuan/mt and 16,910 yuan/mt. However, due to long position liquidation and pressure from falling LME lead prices, SHFE lead fluctuated downward in the afternoon and moved sideways before closing, ending at 16,825 yuan/mt, down 245 yuan/mt or 1.44%. It formed a large bearish candlestick with a bare head. Currently, some primary lead smelters have not resumed production after maintenance, leading to a decline in primary lead output compared with the same period last month. Trading in the secondary lead market is sluggish: as it is the off-season for battery retirement, supply was already tight. Coupled with the sharp drop in SHFE lead prices, smelters lowered raw material offers, causing suppliers to generally hold back from selling, and reducing raw material arrivals at smelters. At the same time, downstream battery enterprises are bearish on the outlook and have strong sentiment for pushing for lower prices, mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate at lows in the short term, with future market attention on cost support from tightening raw material supply. Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not as a decision-making recommendation.