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December 5 news: North China ports: South African high-iron ore at 29.6-30.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 34.1-34.8 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese lumps at 41.7-42.5 yuan/mtu, up 2.43% WoW; Australian lumps at 41-41.7 yuan/mtu, up 2.48% WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 36.6-37.1 yuan/mtu, up 3.37% WoW. South China ports: South African high-iron ore at 30.8-31.3 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore at 36.9-37.8 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese lumps at 40.6-41.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps at 40.5-41.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.49% WoW; South African medium-iron ore at 37.6-38.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. At the beginning of the week, the manganese ore market continued its previous firm trend, with varied performance across different grades. High-grade manganese ore transaction prices saw particularly notable increases, presenting an overall market pattern of "high-grade leading the gains, while low-grade fluctuates at lows." Supply side, due to railway operation issues in Gabon, Compagnie Minière de l'Ogooué (Comilog) has lowered its Q4 manganese ore shipment plan, leading to a significant reduction in future port arrivals of Gabonese ore. Recent port arrivals of Australian lumps have also continued to decrease. Supply of the two major mainstream high-grade ore sources is struggling to match current market demand, and a supply-demand gap is gradually emerging. Traders hold strong expectations for future price increases, especially for high-grade manganese oxide ore, widely adopting a strategy of holding back cargoes, keeping offers firm. Demand side, differentiated purchase demand from downstream SiMn enterprises has further amplified the price increases for high-grade ore. Driven by bullish market sentiment, SiMn plants showed high purchasing enthusiasm for scarce resources like Australian lumps and Gabonese lumps at the start of the week, pushing up their transaction prices. In the main northern production areas, new capacity has been successively put into operation recently, providing strong support for rigid manganese ore demand. The southern SiMn market maintains a relatively low operating rate, with enterprises purchasing mainly based on immediate needs, providing some cushioning effect on overall market demand. Overall, current port inventories of high-grade lump ore are generally tightening, with market bargaining power tilting towards sellers, making purchasing negotiations increasingly difficult. The manganese ore market is expected to maintain a pattern of holding up well in the short term, with the trend of high-grade ore leading the gains likely to continue.

December 5: The SM2603 contract opened at 5,752 yuan/mt and closed at 5,758 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The highest price during the daytime session was 5,784 yuan/mt, and the lowest price was 5,740 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 162,500 lots, and open interest stood at 263,926 lots. Futures were under pressure and traded in the doldrums today. Cost side, the manganese ore market remained firm, with traders showing strong confidence in holding prices firm, providing solid cost support for SiMn. Supply side, new capacity was put into operation at alloy plants in north China, but no iron output had been produced yet; iron output was expected to be released slowly later, which would increase supply-side pressure. In south China, overall operating rates remained relatively low, and supply releases were relatively stable. Spot SiMn prices in production areas fluctuated around the cost line, with significant pressure from losses. Demand side, a new round of steel mill tenders was gradually unfolding, but the market's absorption capacity for SiMn remained to be verified. Overall, the market was watching for the new round of steel tender prices, and spot SiMn prices were expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Today, iron ore futures traded in the doldrums. The most-traded contract rolled over to I2605 and finally closed at 769, down 0.77% from the previous trading day. Traders' willingness to sell was moderate. As the weekend approached, steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm declined. The market transaction atmosphere was sluggish. In Shandong, the transaction price for PB fines was 780-787 yuan/mt, down 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Hebei, the transaction price for PB fines was 790-800 yuan/mt, down 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday. As of December 5, according to SMM statistics, the total iron ore inventory across 35 ports nationwide was 139.82 million mt, an increase of 1.21 million mt WoW. The average daily port pick-up volume this week was 2.686 million mt, down 69,000 mt WoW. Recently, annual maintenance at steel mill blast furnaces entered a concentrated period, leading to a significant decline in iron ore demand, which dragged prices down under pressure. Considering that an important meeting will be held next week, market sentiment is positive, and the downside room is expected to be limited.

On December 5, 2025, the ex-factory price for high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 7,950-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,000-8,150 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers for high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,100-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. For imported material, offers for South African high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,200-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); offers for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome were 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. This week, the ferrochrome market operated steadily overall. The downstream stainless steel market showed some recovery, coupled with limited production cuts by steel mills, leading to steady progress in ferrochrome inquiries and transactions, with prices remaining relatively stable. Officially entering the dry season, electricity costs in south China increased significantly, prompting some high-carbon ferrochrome producers to cut or halt production recently. However, newly added capacity released earlier is expected to reach normal production levels concentrated in December. Offsetting each other, ferrochrome production is projected to hover at highs, with supply gradually becoming looser, posing a risk of price pressure later. Cost side, chrome ore prices continued to fall, leading to a decrease in the immediate smelting cost for ferrochrome, diminishing price support. Considering the current price spread between long-term contracts and spot sales, ferrochrome producers actively focused on fulfilling long-term contract orders, resulting in stable market operation. Raw material side, on December 5, 2025, spot offers for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port were 50.5-51.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 40-42% South African raw ore were 46.5-48 yuan/mtu; offers for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were 51-52 yuan/mtu; offers for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were 52-53 yuan/mtu; offers for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 56-57.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate were 59-60 yuan/mtu, down 0.25 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. For futures, offers for 40-42% South African concentrate were $263-265/mt. This week, the chrome ore market continued its weakness, with prices falling further, though the decline narrowed. Recent port arrivals were mostly high-priced futures chrome ore purchased earlier; with severe contango, many traders held back from selling. However, there were also low-price transactions due to clearing remaining stock. Demand side, ferrochrome producers gradually released purchase inquiries, increasing inquiry activity, but the pressure to drive down prices in counteroffers remained strong, leading to a limited overall rebound in transaction volume. With stable warehouse withdrawals, port arrivals of chrome ore decreased, and port inventory fell 8.3% WoW to 3.2814 million mt. Although inventory declined, due to weak market confidence, chrome ore prices still faced downward pressure. Futures side, the latest round of offers for 40-42% South African concentrate held steady at $263/mt, providing some market stability. Some traders made preliminary stockpiling for 2026, purchasing small amounts in stages, leading to some futures transactions recently. In addition, the recent severe port congestion at Beira Port in Mozambique has restricted shipments, leading to a significant increase in freight costs for chrome ore from Zimbabwe and raising the purchase costs for traders. It is necessary to monitor the subsequent supply situation of chrome ore from Zimbabwe.

The lead concentrate market remained stable this week, with imported ore continuing to show a tight trend. Significant differences persisted in the specific price negotiations for 2026 long-term contracts. In the domestic ore trading market, as most smelters had pre-booked lead concentrate supply orders for Q4 in advance, offers for circulating cargoes were scarce in the market. Mine offers were primarily focused on pre-sales for 2026, with individual mines having already completed tenders and bids for lead concentrates in H1 2026. Following the arrival of imported ore under long-term contracts at smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, and other regions, domestic procurement demand experienced a slight decline. TCs for smelters in southern regions such as Jiangxi, Hunan, and Yunnan remained low. However, due to factors including maintenance shutdowns or lack of full production plans at some plants, there were no clear signs of a further decline in lead concentrate TCs in the market. According to SMM, the decline in lead concentrate TCs for most parties was related to the inability to further increase the payable indicator for associated metals. Consequently, TCs for low-silver lead concentrates and crude lead with minimal associated metals remained stable. Silver prices once again hit record highs, yet the payable indicator for silver concentrates (containing 4,000-5,000g/mt in physical content of silver) in the ore trading market was not adjusted further. Some market traders exhibited cautious sentiment towards high silver prices, leading to a lack of significant adjustments in the payable indicator for silver contained in silver-lead ores of other grades as well.

Spot market, lead prices stopped falling and rebounded to hold firm at the 17,000 yuan/mt level this week (December 1-5, 2025). Affected by maintenance at primary lead and secondary refined lead smelters, suppliers in some regions held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. In Henan, suppliers quoted #1 lead at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM average price or at a discount of 70-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2601 contract. Approaching the weekend, smelter inventories in Hunan accumulated slightly, and premiums for #1 lead against the SMM average price were lowered to 30-50 yuan/mt. Some traders reported transactions for cargoes self-picked up from production sites in Hunan at parity with the SMM #1 lead price. For secondary refined lead, although profits recovered, suppliers' quotations remained relatively firm. Some spot orders were quoted at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price. Downstream procurement still leaned toward primary lead supply, with some manufacturers picking up goods from nearby warehouses. Trading in the spot market remained relatively thin.

Policy and Strategic Dynamics The US Department of Energy announced through its Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation's Rare Earth Demonstration Facility Program that it will provide up to $134 million in funding to support commercial feasibility verification projects for the recovery and refining of rare earth elements from unconventional raw materials such as mine tailings and electronic waste. To support this initiative, the US will solicit non-binding letters of intent by December 10, with the full application deadline on January 5, 2026. However, the US's policy of setting a rare earth price floor has not received support from all allies. The UK Industry Minister Chris McDonald explicitly stated that the UK has chosen not to emulate the US's support mechanism of setting a price floor for rare earth enterprises. The core consideration is that the UK can already successfully attract sufficient investment to develop its domestic supply chain, but it will continue to monitor the implementation effects of the US policy. In Asia, India's cabinet formally approved a rare earth permanent magnet industry support plan totaling 72.8 billion rupees (approximately $815 million). The plan aims to build an entire industry chain for sintered NdFeB magnets with an annual capacity of 6,000 mt through competitive tender. Meanwhile, Vietnam's Minister of Agriculture and Environment Tran Duc Thang confirmed that the country possesses one of the world's largest rare earth reserves and stated that a national rare earth strategy is under development, expected to be released by the Prime Minister in early 2026. The core objective is to establish a closed manufacturing chain to restrict the export of raw materials. Resource Exploration and Project Progress In terms of resource exploration, Canada's Amarlock Company announced the discovery of high-grade rare earth ore in southern Greenland, with a total rare earth oxide content of up to 2.31%. The company is considering developing this resource but acknowledges challenges such as harsh polar environments and lack of infrastructure, and plans to commence drilling next spring. Australia's Strategic Materials Company disclosed its Q3 results, showing that it shipped a total of 40 mt of rare earth metal during the quarter, with NdFeB production of 16.7 mt and shipments to customers of 13.9 mt. The capacity of the company's metal processing plant in South Korea is continuously increasing, and it plans to raise the annual capacity of rare earth metal alloy from 1,300 mt to 3,600 mt. Additionally, Rainbow Rare Earths Company reported progress on its Phalaborwa project in South Africa. The project has successfully produced high-purity mixed rare earth products and is scheduled to be completed and operational by 2027. The company emphasized that its technology does not require traditional mining; instead, it extracts rare earths by processing phosphogypsum scrap generated from historical phosphate production, aiming to become a supplier of responsibly sourced rare earths for Western markets. Technology R&D and Cooperation In the field of technology R&D, the Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) provided a $3 million grant to a research team at the University of California, Davis to develop a bio-based process. This process aims to use engineered acid-tolerant microorganisms to selectively capture rare earth elements from acidic mine drainage and industrial wastewater, with the goal of achieving lower-cost and more environmentally friendly recovery[citation:user message]. Meanwhile, the CEO of Momentum Technologies testified before the US House of Representatives, introducing its proprietary membrane solvent extraction technology, stating it could serve as a domestic processing solution to address vulnerabilities in the US critical mineral supply chain. International Cooperation and Market Strategy Regarding international cooperation, a report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the US pointed out that the US has the potential to become an international rare earth processing hub. It recommended a dual-track strategy: rapidly building domestic processing and magnet manufacturing capabilities while collaborating with trusted allies such as Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Canada to establish a global processing network[citation:user message]. Kazakhstan, leveraging the newly discovered super-large rare earth deposit in the Karaganda Region, is accelerating efforts to attract foreign investment for cooperation. The state-owned company Tau-Ken Samruk has signed technical agreements with institutions from the US, Japan, and France, intending to build a complete industry chain from mining to processing.

The tender for the December 2025 High-Carbon Ferrochrome and Other Items (BG2025120007) has met the procurement conditions, and suppliers are now publicly invited to participate in the negotiation procurement activity. Project Brief 1.1 Project Name: December 2025 High-Carbon Ferrochrome and Other Items (BG2025120007) 1.2 Client: Raw Material Procurement Department, Procurement Center of Bengang Steel Plates Co., Ltd. 1.3 Agency: Ansteel Tender Co., Ltd. Benxi Branch 1.4 Project Funding Status: Self-raised 1.5 Project Overview: For details, please refer to the public attachments in the commissioned application. 1.6 Platform and Website: Ansteel Smart Tender Platform (http://bid.ansteel.cn/TPBidder) Procurement Scope and Related Requirements 2.1 Procurement Scope: For details, please refer to the public attachments in the commissioned application. 2.2 Delivery Date: 20260120 2.3 Delivery Location: Anshan, etc. 2.4 Goods Quality Standards or Main Technical Performance Indicators: See attachments. Supplier Qualification Requirements 3.1 Supplier Qualification Requirements: See attachments Click to View Tender Details:

I. Summary of Winter Stockpiling Policies for Steel Mills Nationwide As winter approaches, construction at downstream sites is nearing the end of 2025, and market demand is weakening. To stabilize production pace, digest inventories in advance, ease financial pressure, and lock in market demand, steel mills have recently rolled out their winter stockpiling policies. According to incomplete statistics from SMM, as of December 5, one mill in Northeast China, two in Northwest China, and one in North China have announced their winter stockpiling policies. II. Winter Stockpiling Dilemma: Should Traders Stockpile or Adopt a Wait-and-See Approach? In recent years, the real estate market has remained sluggish, and the supporting capacity of infrastructure has been limited. Post-Chinese New Year holiday demand recovery has been weaker than expected, resulting in minimal gains or even losses for traders from winter stockpiling. Consequently, they are approaching winter stockpiling for 2026 with greater caution. According to SMM surveys, market feedback generally indicates that this year's winter stockpiling activity is expected to occur later. Most traders report that only a small number of mills have announced policies so far, which lack clear reference value, leading them to maintain a wait-and-see stance for now. III. Inventory Levels Higher Than Last Year, Deepening Winter Stockpiling Concerns As of December 4, total national rebar inventory stood at 4.7605 million mt, up 15.56% YoY. This includes social inventory of 3.3294 million mt, up 22.60% YoY, and in-factory inventory of 1.4312 million mt, up 1.94% YoY. From an inventory perspective, total rebar inventory, along with mill and social inventories, are all higher than the levels seen during the same period last year. Inventories remain at a relatively high level, creating significant inventory pressure and adding to traders' concerns regarding winter stockpiling. IV. Real Estate Drag: Consensus That Demand Is Unlikely to See Incremental Growth In the real estate sector, 2025 is a year of industry adjustment and structural transformation. From January to October, cumulative year-on-year figures for development investment, new construction starts, completed area, and floor space under construction were -14.7%, -19.8%, -16.9%, and -9.4%, respectively. The downturn in real estate is dragging down demand for construction steel. In 2026, the real estate market will continue to focus on reducing existing inventory, urban renewal, and the construction of affordable housing. Rigid demand is unlikely to support incremental growth in construction steel demand. In the infrastructure sector, the Two Sessions in 2025 confirmed the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan in local government special bonds, effectively filling funding gaps for infrastructure projects and providing a strong boost to the sector. From January to November, the cumulative issuance of local government bonds in China reached 4,456.3 billion yuan, up 11.9% YoY, supporting demand for steel used in infrastructure. As 2026 marks the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the infrastructure sector is highly likely to see intensive policy implementation and the concentrated commencement of major projects, which should continue to provide some support for construction steel demand. Overall, with the Politburo meeting imminent and the US Fed's interest rate cuts yet to materialize, macro expectations remain positive, and both rebar futures and spot prices are strengthening. Market focus is more on profit-taking at highs, making it premature to discuss winter stockpiling. Additionally, few steel mills have announced winter stockpiling policies so far. Due to poor returns from winter stockpiling in recent years, traders are expected to make more cautious decisions. Fundamentally, rebar inventory pressure persists, the downturn in the real estate sector is expected to continue through 2026, and infrastructure support remains limited, adding to traders' concerns about winter stockpiling. It is anticipated that traders' winter stockpiling volume may decline in 2026, with close attention on the incentives in subsequent steel mill winter stockpiling policies. SMM will continue to track updates on steel mills' winter stockpiling policies.

Prices for domestic iron ore concentrates in west Liaoning remained relatively stable, with the current ex-factory price for 66% grade wet-base concentrates, excluding tax, at 755-760 yuan/mt. Mines and beneficiation plants are currently operating normally as planned, without significant impact from related safety inspections, but overall iron ore concentrate resources remain relatively tight. Demand side, local steel mills are primarily purchasing as needed, but the overall desire to bargain down prices is relatively strong, and market transactions are relatively sluggish. Today, iron ore futures weakened, which may affect trading sentiment in the domestic iron ore concentrate market. Prices for local iron ore concentrates are expected to fluctuate in the doldrums next week. [SMM Steel]

[SMM Daily Coal and Coke Briefing] Coking Coal Market: Low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen was offered at 1,500 yuan/mt. Low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan was offered at 1,530 yuan/mt. Raw material fundamentals, production resumptions at mines that previously halted or cut production were slow, supply release was limited. However, downstream maintained just-in-time procurement for coking coal, many adopted a wait-and-see stance, mines faced shipment pressure, online auction transactions were still predominantly lower, market sentiment continued to weaken. Short-term, coking coal prices are expected to fall further. Coke Market: The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench was 1,900 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench was 1,760 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench was 1,540 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench was 1,450 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, after the first round of coke price cuts, coking coal prices also fell, repairing coke plant profits, operating rates remained high, coke supply increased, downstream purchase enthusiasm declined, coke plants experienced passive inventory buildup. Demand side, steel mills currently have further production cuts and maintenance plans, intending to use this opportunity to pressure the raw material side, attempting to initiate a second round of price cuts for coke. Therefore, steel mills slowed down their procurement pace for coke, mostly making just-in-time procurement. In summary, the short-term coke market may continue in the doldrums, with expectations for a second round of price cuts.[SMM Steel]

The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces this week (November 28, 2025 - December 4, 2025) was 65.92%, down 0.6 percentage points WoW. This week, a smelter in Henan completed maintenance on its crude lead unit, leading to a slight increase in primary lead production. Smelters in Hunan maintained stable operations, while a medium-to-large scale smelter in Yunnan continued production cuts due to ongoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in its operating rate. Additionally, a smelter in Hunan plans routine maintenance in mid-to-late December, though the specific maintenance schedule has not been finalized. Another smelter mentioned a potential major overhaul around the Chinese New Year, and SMM will continue to monitor the situation. In other regions, a smelter in east China that halted production for maintenance mid-last week saw a further decline in output this week, with operations expected to resume by the end of December.

SMM data showed that the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2601) experienced a typical "divergence between futures and spot markets" this week (December 1-5, 2025). As of 10:30 on December 5, the contract price surged to 12,505 yuan/mt, rebounding significantly from last week's low. However, this rally was not driven by fundamental improvements but by short-term capital flows. Open interest for the SS2601 contract further shrank sharply to 91,600 lots (117,000 lots last week), indicating that major funds were accelerating their exit. The gains in futures were more due to "short covering" by bears taking profits rather than active buying by bulls. This rise, lacking support from incremental funds, was widely regarded by the market as a "hollow rally." From a macro perspective, the external environment remained chilly, with significant bearish signals emerging frequently. The US ADP employment data for November showed contractions in both manufacturing and construction employment, while layoffs at small businesses indicated a substantial cooling in core export orders for stainless steel used in home appliances, equipment, and decoration. Coupled with the deep slump in US commercial real estate undermining long-term growth in construction steel demand, the logic of weakening external demand was being validated. Notably, although copper prices surged this week driven by AI-related power demand, stainless steel, as a traditional manufacturing product, follows a fundamentally different logic from copper, and one should avoid the misconception of "nonferrous metal co-movement." Additionally, expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and the risk of a steepening US Treasury yield curve suggested that global financing costs would remain high, continuing to suppress traders' stockpiling willingness. Fundamentally, the market was caught in an awkward squeeze between "increasing supply" and "demand fearing high prices" this week, with the spot market offering no support for futures prices. On the supply side, there were no signs of implemented production cuts; instead, news of production resumptions emerged: a major state-owned steel mill in the North restarted its cold-rolling line earlier than planned after maintenance, a new production line commenced operations at a pipe manufacturer in Xiangshui, Jiangsu, and TISCO announced a capacity upgrade, leading to increased rather than reduced supply pressure. On the demand side, clear "high-price fear" sentiment was evident, with market transactions concentrated mainly in the low range of 12,250-12,300 yuan/mt. Once prices followed futures higher to 12,400-12,500 yuan/mt, downstream inquiries vanished immediately, forcing traders to offer discounts covertly. SMM data indicated a slight increase in social inventory to 947,000 mt this week (946,000 mt last week). The fact that inventory rose instead of falling against the backdrop of a price rebound sufficiently demonstrated weak end-user purchase willingness. Cost side, the negative feedback loop persisted. As of December 5, high-grade NPI offers continued to slide softly to 881 yuan/mtu, and although high-carbon ferrochrome prices held steady at 8,025 yuan/mt (50% metal content), they were insufficient to offset the cost collapse pressure from the declining price center of core nickel raw materials. The continued weakness in raw material prices has further widened the premium of current futures prices, increasing the risk of a correction. Overall, the nature of this week's market movement was sentiment-driven turbulence during the capital rollover process, while the fundamentals have already revealed a triple bearish pattern of "increasing supply, weakening demand, declining external demand, and falling costs." Looking ahead to next week, as short covering concludes, the high prices lacking support from spot cargo and macro factors are expected to be unsustainable. Caution is warranted as the futures market may briefly surge before reverting to fundamental logic and facing the risk of a catch-up decline.

Next week, the US Fed will make an interest rate decision for December, with market expectations of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, which weighed on the US dollar index recently. In terms of economic data, the US October JOLTs job openings, China's November CPI annual rate, and the US September wholesale sales monthly rate are expected to be released. On the LME lead side, LME lead inventory decreased by nearly 20,000 mt this week. The drawdown in lead ingot inventory boosted lead prices, pushing them above $2,000/mt. Meanwhile, the decline in the US dollar index may bring some upward expectations for lead prices. Lead prices are expected to hold up well next week, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,995–$2,035/mt. Domestically, for SHFE lead, regional supply of lead ingots tightened, and lead consumption improved relatively, with visible inventory falling to a 15-month low, supporting lead prices to hold up well. However, it is worth noting that in-factory inventories at lead smelters accumulated recently, and suppliers may ship to delivery warehouses before delivery, raising caution about a pullback after lead prices surge. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 17,100–17,550 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 17,050–17,400 yuan/mt. For primary lead, smelter inventory accumulated, and with stronger lead prices, spot premiums are expected to pull back. For secondary lead, smelters diverged in sales strategies, with some stockpiling in anticipation of price increases and others expanding discounts to sell. Premiums for secondary refined lead may decrease. On the lead consumption side, demand for lead-acid batteries improved relatively, with downstream enterprises purchasing as needed, but high lead prices suppressed some purchasing intentions.