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SMM Jan. 29: Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 350-120 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 235 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 410-390 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,645 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,480 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory edged down today, mainly due to increased warehouse withdrawals and reduced arrivals. In the morning session, encouraged by the inventory decline, suppliers actively held prices firm, with standard-quality copper quoted at a discount of 320 yuan/mt, but downstream restocking demand remained sluggish. In the second session, as copper prices surged sharply, buyers became even scarcer, and spot premiums pulled back. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 1.81, down 0.17 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment was 3.54, down 0.2 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). As of 11:00, high-quality copper against the front-month contract was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at a discount of 350 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at a discount of 400 yuan/mt. Overall, copper prices surged sharply while downstream consumption remained sluggish, spot premiums retreated after a rapid rise, and overall trading was quiet.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $16,251/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $49,465/mt Co. The MHP payable indicator (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) is 88.5-89, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 91.5. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $16,638/mt Ni. In the MHP market, supply side, recent spot market observations indicate scarce spot circulation; the nickel payables remain supported at high levels due to tight supply-demand conditions, with some traders slightly lowering quotes to recoup funds. Demand side, affected by the DRC's cobalt intermediate products export quota policy, MHP's role as a supplementary raw material substitute for cobalt intermediate products has become prominent. However, downstream acceptance of high-priced intermediate products is low, and most refined nickel and nickel salt smelters maintain a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in few just-in-time procurement transactions. Overall, the market supply and demand are tight, and both nickel payables and cobalt payables are currently supported at high levels. In the high-grade nickel matte market, supply side, market circulation is tight, and seller quotes remain firm. Demand side, enterprises that externally purchase raw materials currently find using high-grade nickel matte more economical compared to using MHP. Under tight supply and demand, the nickel payables are currently supported at high levels. [For more content, subscribe to SMM Nickel Research Group products "China Nickel-Chrome-Stainless Steel Industry Chain Regular Report" and "China Nickel-Chrome-Stainless Steel Industry Chain High-End Report" to obtain the latest data analysis and market insights on nickel ore, NPI (China + Indonesia), refined nickel, nickel sulphate, chrome ore, ferrochrome, and stainless steel (China + Indonesia)! ]

Chloe Gronow · January 27, 2026 Nitesh Shah, Head of Commodities and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree , assesses gold’s strongest year since 1979 and considers whether the metal is entering a new structural regime. He highlights trade fragmentation, rising debt, fiscal dominance and growing institutional demand as key drivers, while outlining scenarios that could see gold remain elevated or push to new highs in 2026. Gold rose 65% in 2025, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979, when prices surged by 126%. That earlier episode coincided with rampant inflation, the Iranian Revolution following the fall of the Shah, the Three Mile Island nuclear accident, and extraordinary volatility across commodity markets. Inflationary pressures were so severe that the Federal Reserve entered an existential phase, ultimately appointing Paul Volcker, widely regarded as the only figure willing to engineer a recession to restore the credibility of the central bank and ensure the long-term sustainability of the US economy. While surpassing the 1979 benchmark would always have been a tall order, achieving more than half of that performance is nonetheless remarkable. Trade fragmentation and the unravelling of globalisation The introduction of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in April 2025 triggered fears of a sharp contraction in global trade and significant disruption to global supply chains. More broadly, concerns have intensified that the globally integrated economic framework, widely seen as a cornerstone of global growth over the past 50 years, is being dismantled in favour of more inward-looking, protectionist policies. This shift has been highly supportive for gold. Fiscal dominance and gold as a pseudo-currency Rising government debt levels are another major source of concern. The higher the stock of public debt, the greater the risk of financial market instability. While central banks are formally mandated to focus on inflation (and, in the case of the US Federal Reserve, employment), the threat of instability can prompt them to act pre-emptively by loosening monetary conditions. This dynamic encapsulates the concept of fiscal dominance , a regime in which fiscal policy effectively constrains or dominates monetary policy. Fiscal dominance is unequivocally positive for gold. As a pseudo-currency with limited supply growth, gold acts as an antidote to the potential debasement of fiat currencies issued by central banks engaged in monetary expansion. Importantly, this is not just an investor phenomenon. Central banks holding large reserves of fiat currencies are increasingly turning to gold to mitigate debasement risks and enhance reserve resilience. Political pressure on central bank independence President Trump’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve have not been helpful to the institution’s perceived independence. While we do not believe he will succeed in obtaining the legal authority to dismiss Governor Cook, nor do we expect him to act on his frequent public criticisms of Chair Jerome Powell, the broader implications are noteworthy. When Powell steps down in May, leading contenders for the Chair position may prove less resistant to political pressure. Although a diverse Federal Open Market Committee, including recent notable dissents, will remain in place, leadership matters both substantively and symbolically. We are not suggesting a return to the pre-Volcker era, but a Federal Reserve more susceptible to fiscal dominance is a plausible risk. Even if that risk is remote, its mere existence has the potential to drive gold prices materially higher. Is gold leaving its ‘steady state’? WisdomTree’s gold model has been calibrated using data from a relatively stable period in gold’s modern history (1995–2025). Earlier data are unavailable for some key components, futures market positioning being the primary constraint. The extreme inflation and volatility of the 1970s coincided with gold’s emergence as a fully investable asset class. The collapse of the gold standard frameworks (including Bretton Woods in August 1971) occurred during that decade, while the US ban on private gold ownership (Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102) was repealed on 31 December 1974. Although gold has been valued for millennia, a meaningful influx of private investors only began in the 1970s and 1980s. In China, the People’s Bank of China allowed individuals to purchase gold jewellery in 1982, marking the gradual end of strict state control over gold ownership. Deregulation continued through the 1990s and 2000s, but 1982 arguably represented the most significant step change. In short, our model may have been calibrated in what could be described as a ‘steady state’ world. The 65% increase in gold prices during 2025 raises the question of whether gold is transitioning to a new equilibrium. A global trade reset, heightened fears of fiscal dominance, a partial withdrawal of the US security umbrella from Europe (and potentially other regions), and the prospect of new investor cohorts entering the market all point in that direction. New structural sources of gold demand Chinese insurance companies On 7 February 2025, China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration approved a pilot programme allowing selected insurers to invest in gold. By March 2025, the first investments had taken place. Although no official data on purchases have been disclosed, insurers are permitted to allocate up to 1% of assets to gold. Using year-end 2024 asset bases and assuming full utilisation of this cap, potential gold demand could reach approximately ¥200 billion (US$25–30 billion). If deployed evenly at ¥20 billion per month, this would imply purchases of around 7.83 million troy ounces, or roughly 244 tonnes of gold. For context, bar and coin demand in mainland China totalled 345.7 tonnes in 2024 (World Gold Council), while total Chinese gold consumption reached 985.3 tonnes (China Gold Association). Digital asset issuers: Tether In its Q3 attestation report, Tether disclosed holdings of US$12.9 billion in precious metals, assumed to be entirely gold. At end-September prices, this equates to approximately 115 tonnes, comparable to the official gold reserves of countries such as Greece, Hungary or South Korea. Tether’s pace of accumulation has been rapid, with purchases of 24 tonnes in Q2 2025 and 26 tonnes in Q3 2025. Only around 12 tonnes back its gold-backed token (XAUt), implying that the majority is held as a treasury or reserve asset. Whether intended to facilitate future expansion of XAUt or to strengthen the backing of USDT, Tether has emerged as a significant and unconventional source of gold demand. Indian pension funds As of December 2025, Indian pension funds are permitted to invest up to 1% of assets in approved gold and silver exchange-traded funds. National Pension System assets exceed US$177 billion, implying potential allocations of up to US$1.7 billion. Even partial uptake would represent a meaningful incremental source of demand in an already tight market. Central banks Central banks have become materially larger buyers of gold in recent years. Since 2022, annual purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes, more than double the average of the preceding decade. This shift coincided with the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war and the freezing of the Russian central bank’s foreign currency assets by G7 nations. That episode highlighted the vulnerabilities of reserve assets denominated in G7 currencies and accelerated efforts to diversify reserves. Gold remains the only viable pseudo-currency capable of fulfilling this role. In 2025, central bank gold purchases reached record levels, and we expect demand to remain elevated given the scale of reserves requiring diversification and the gradual pace at which such reallocation can occur. Implications for gold modelling While the developments outlined above raise the possibility of structural breaks in some of gold’s historical relationships, we believe it is prudent to retain our existing modelling framework for now. Periods of regime transition are, by definition, the most challenging environments in which to recalibrate quantitative models. While it is tempting to respond to apparent shifts by redesigning models ex post, doing so risks embedding transient dynamics or narrative-driven assumptions that may not persist. At present, there is no clear empirical basis for defining the parameters of a new steady state, nor for determining which historical analogues should anchor such a framework. Our current model was constructed to explain gold price behaviour across a wide range of macroeconomic environments and remains internally consistent and economically intuitive. Importantly, it provides a disciplined baseline against which deviations can be identified, monitored, and assessed. In this sense, the model’s value is not diminished by potential regime change; rather, it becomes a useful reference point for detecting and interpreting emerging dislocations. Until sufficient data accumulate to distinguish between a temporary overshoot and a durable structural shift, we view maintaining the existing model as the least assumptive approach. We therefore prefer to complement the model with scenario analysis and qualitative judgment during this transitional phase, rather than prematurely imposing a new framework whose stability and explanatory power cannot yet be tested. Gold price forecasts Using WisdomTree’s gold price model, we outline three scenarios for the year ahead. Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg. Historical Data to December 2025. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Consensus scenario Based on consensus macroeconomic expectations for inflation, bond yields, and the US dollar, gold is projected to rise above the psychologically important US$5,000/oz level by year-end. Inflation is expected to moderate but remain persistently above the Federal Reserve’s target. Although policy rates are forecast to fall, 10-year yields are expected to remain broadly stable, implying yield curve steepening. Rising debt levels and fears of fiscal dominance are likely to prevent declines at the short end from translating into lower long-end yields. The US dollar is expected to remain broadly flat following one of its sharpest depreciations in over two decades during 2025. Consensus Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026 Inflation forecast 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% Nominal 10-year yields forecast 4.09% 4.08% 4.07% 4.10% US$ exchange rate forecast (DXY) 98.0 97.2 96.6 96.7 Speculative positioning forecast 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 Gold price forecast (US$/oz) 4,400 4,600 4,800 5,020 Source: WisdomTree. Bloomberg Survey of Professional Economists. December 2025. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Bull scenario In the bull case, a more accommodative Federal Reserve under new leadership cuts rates aggressively, allowing inflation to rise sharply. Bond markets accept structurally lower yields and do not penalise rising government indebtedness. The US dollar continues to weaken due to widening twin deficits, pushing gold prices towards US$6,000/oz. Bull Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026 Inflation forecast 3.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% Nominal 10-year yields forecast 3.60% 3.40% 3.25% 3.15% US$ exchange rate forecast (DXY) 94 92 90 89 Speculative positioning forecast 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 Gold price forecast (US$/oz) 4,600 5,000 $5,500 5,995 Source: WisdomTree. January 2026. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Bear scenario In the bear case, the Federal Reserve reasserts its inflation-fighting credentials, maintaining inflation at its 2% target through tighter policy. Higher policy rates push 10-year yields higher, and the US dollar appreciates sharply. Assuming this occurs without a recession or significant labour market damage, speculative positioning in gold could unwind substantially, driving prices down towards US$3,100/oz. Bear Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026 Inflation forecast 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Nominal 10-year yields forecast 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% US$ exchange rate forecast (DXY) 102 106 110 113 Speculative positioning forecast 150,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 Gold price forecast (US$/oz) 4,100 4,000 3,950 3,905 Source: WisdomTree. January 2026. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Source: This news is sourced from https://ifamagazine.com/gold-outlook-to-q4-2026-into-uncharted-territory/

Adam Button 27/01/2026 | 22:48 GMT+8 The drivers of the gold rally will remain in place for awhile Gold prices have shattered the $5,000/oz barrier, and according to the latest analysis from RBC Capital Markets, the momentum behind the precious metal shows no signs of exhaustion. Gold is up $66 today to $5080 as it consolidates above the big figure. While the bank’s high-scenario forecast had anticipated gold reaching the $5,200 region later in Q4, the "frenetic nature of uncertainty" combined with broad dollar weakness has accelerated the timeline significantly. Key highlights from the note: The speed of the rally has surpassed RBC's expectations. Gold has already set 8 new all-time highs in January 2026 alone (compared to 51 total in the previous year). The macro backdrop remains heavily gold-positive. RBC cites trade tensions, political/geopolitical instability, and concerns over Fed independence as primary catalysts. Crucially, they see no drop-off in demand from central banks or investors, with ETP (Exchange Traded Product) holdings rising alongside price. Using historical rallies ('76, '07, '15) as a proxy, the current upswing (approx. 844 days) is not an outlier. Historical averages suggest this rally could extend into September or December of this year. If 2026 mimics the percentage gains seen in 2025 (~65%), RBC notes that an extrapolation of that trend would put gold as high as $7,100/oz by year-end. "Many of the same underpinnings are there... and importantly, we still do not get a sense of exhaustion in terms of accumulation from investors or from the official sector (i.e., central banks)," writes RBC. RBC concludes that while limits exist for other asset classes, gold's unique nature means current valuations aren't hitting a hard ceiling. With the correlation between ETP holdings and price re-coupling, the bank sees ample upside risk even to their own bullish scenarios. The next drivers for the price of gold are likely to be Trump's next trade war moves. Today's fresh round of tariffs on South Korea underscores the risk of making a 'deal' with Trump that he quickly ignores. Also watch out for the Fed chairman decision, the FOMC decision and next week's non-farm payrolls report. Source: https://investinglive.com/commodities/rbc-gold-rally-has-room-to-run-sees-potential-for-7100-20260127/

By Dave Taylor Published: Jan 27, 2026 at 14:30 The silver price in US Dollars has surged to fresh record highs, with XAG/USD trading around $109 per ounce, as momentum-driven buying and a weaker US dollar continue to propel the market higher. UBS says the move above $100 reflects a powerful mix of investor demand for precious metals and tight physical conditions, particularly in Asia. Chinese silver prices are trading at a clear premium to London, a signal that near-term upside pressure remains in place despite already elevated levels. That said, UBS is increasingly cautious about chasing the rally. While momentum could yet carry prices higher in the short run, the bank argues that current levels are likely to start eroding industrial demand, which still accounts for more than half of global silver consumption. UBS draws parallels with past speculative episodes, noting that while silver could theoretically overshoot to extreme levels in a momentum-driven surge, history suggests such moves tend to reverse sharply once sentiment turns. The bank highlights that silver’s late-1970s boom was followed by losses of almost 70% within a year and more than 80% over two years, a reminder that rapid upside can be followed by equally violent corrections. Fundamentals are already showing signs of strain. High prices are beginning to weigh on demand from solar manufacturing, jewellery and silverware, while ETF holdings have stopped rising and speculative futures positioning has been easing since late 2025. At the same time, UBS notes that physical demand outside the US remains robust, with premiums in China and Europe pointing to ongoing regional tightness even as flows into Europe help ease supply constraints. Against this backdrop, UBS has raised its long-term silver forecast to $85 per ounce, still well below current spot levels, while lifting its short-term target to $105 to reflect continued momentum. Rather than adding outright long exposure, UBS prefers strategies that take advantage of extreme option volatility, which is hovering around 60%, arguing that selling downside risk below $75 per ounce can generate yield for investors with a high tolerance for risk. The bank concludes that silver remains in overdrive for now, but warns that the balance of risks is becoming increasingly asymmetric as prices move further above levels justified by underlying demand. Source: https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/45077/2026-01-27-silver-price-forecast-ubs-warns-rally-overheating-above-100.html

Japan's steel industry faced significant downward pressure throughout 2025. According to the latest data from the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF), total crude steel production reached 80,679 thousand tonnes, marking a 4% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. BOF Steel (Basic Oxygen Furnace): 59,830 thousand tonnes, ↓ 3.4% YoY. EAF Steel (Electric Arc Furnace): 20,849 thousand tonnes, ↓ 5.5% YoY. Finished Steel Products Hot Rolled Coil (HRC): 34,951 thousand tonnes, ↓ 2.4% YoY. Cold Rolled Coil (CRC): 13,856 thousand tonnes, ↓ 0.4% YoY. Hot Dip Galvanized (HDG): 7,988 thousand tonnes, ↓ 2.1% YoY. Plate: 7,870 thousand tonnes, ↓ 4.5% YoY. Sections and Bars 1,856 thousand tonnes, ↓ 5.3% YoY. Summary and Analysis In 2025, production across all categories of the Japanese steel industry declined compared to the previous year, with the sharpest drops recorded in Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steel, Plate, and Sections and Bars. This broad contraction is largely attributed to a persistent labor shortage that has subdued domestic construction activity—a systemic challenge unlikely to be resolved in the short term due to the current work environment. Additionally, high energy costs and the ongoing relocation of manufacturing overseas continue to pressure domestic output, signaling that the industry is shifting away from a volume-based growth model.

Reuters | January 26, 2026 | 8:04 am Analysts expect spot gold prices, which hit a record high above $5,000 per ounce on Monday, to climb further toward $6,000 this year on mounting global tensions as well as strong central bank and retail demand. Gold raced to a peak of $5,092.70 as geopolitical and economic risks rattled markets. The safe-haven metal is up more than 17% this year, after soaring 64% in 2025. The London Bullion Market Association’s annual precious metals forecast survey shows analysts projecting gold rising as high as $7,150 and averaging $4,742 in 2026. Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900. Independent analyst Ross Norman expects a high of $6,400 this year, with an average of $5,375. “The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that’s playing very much into gold’s hands,” Norman said. Geopolitical tensions Gold’s recent rally has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, from the US–NATO friction over Greenland and tariff uncertainty to rising doubts over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, among others. “With the upcoming US mid-term elections, political uncertainty may increase further. At the same time, persistent concerns about over-valued equity markets are likely to reinforce portfolio diversification flows into gold,” said Philip Newman, a director at Metals Focus. “After crossing the $5,000/ounce milestone, we expect further upside,” he added. Robust central bank purchases Central bank gold buying, a key driver of prices in 2025, is expected to stay strong this year. Goldman Sachs forecasts purchases to average 60 metric tons a month as emerging-market central banks continue diversifying reserves into gold. Poland’s central bank, which held 550 tons of gold at end-2025, aims to lift reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski said this month . These plans reaffirm the view that the key driver behind the spike in gold is central banks “looking to de-dollarize … and where else could you go except into gold?” Norman said. China’s central bank extended its gold-buying spree for a 14th month in December. ETF inflows, retail demand Inflows into gold-backed ETFs, which store bullion for investors and account for a significant amount of investment demand for the metal, are also underpinning prices as markets expect further US rate cuts this year. “There’s an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield. As interest rates decline, so does this opportunity cost. If the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026, demand for gold should rise,” said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund. Gold ETFs saw record inflows in 2025, led by North American funds, according to World Gold Council data, with annual inflows surging to $89 billion. In tonnage terms, inflows totalled 801 metric tons, the highest since their record in 2020. Gold demand for jewellery has weakened amid high prices, partly offset by a strong appetite for small bars and coins in key markets such as India. Bar-and-coin buying is also evident in Europe, though some investors are taking profit, analysts said. For many retail investors, gold’s appeal lies in its simplicity, said Frederic Panizzutti, global head of sales at Numismatica Genevensis, which trades precious metals coins. “You don’t need to analyze a balance sheet, assess credit risk or worry about a country or sovereign risk,” he said. “Your only risk with physical gold is the price direction. And as geopolitics and geoeconomics have become more complicated … that simplicity has become more attractive.” What’s next for gold? Analysts say several factors could trigger a correction, including a pullback in US rate-cut expectations, margin calls in equities, and easing concerns about Fed independence. However, most expect any pullback to be short-lived and treated as a buying opportunity. “A meaningful and sustained decline in gold would require a return to a more stable economic and geopolitical backdrop, which currently appears unlikely,” Newman added. (By Ashitha Shivaprasad, Kavya Balaraman, Pablo Sinha, Swati Verma and Polina Devitt; Editing by Veronica Brown and Himani Sarkar) Source: This news is sourced from Reuters via mining.com, with link below: https://www.mining.com/web/graphic-gold-price-has-more-room-to-run-analysts-say/

Eskom has applied to the energy regulator for approval of an interim electricity tariff of 87¢/kWh for Samancor Chrome and the Glencore-Merafe chrome venture. This is a temporary measure aimed at maintaining smelter operations while parties continue to negotiate a longer-term solution, with the goal of further reducing the tariff to 62¢/kWh. The utility also requested that the National Energy Regulator of South Africa extend the "take-or-pay" obligation exemption granted to the two companies last year by an additional 12 months. This exemption pertains to obligations under pricing agreements negotiated with Eskom, which took effect in 2024. These agreements stipulate that ferrochrome producers must fulfill at least 70% of their contracted electricity volume; however, this condition has become unattainable due to the industry's loss of competitiveness and the shutdown of multiple smelters. In August last year, Samancor Chrome and the Glencore-Merafe chrome venture cited operational difficulties caused by these clauses, prompting NERSA to approve a six-month exemption, which is set to expire at the end of January. Gugulethu Dumakude of Eskom's distribution division acknowledged that the interim tariff of 87¢/kWh is still not enough to restore ferrochrome producers to the production levels envisaged in the pricing agreements, but it would help companies slightly increase their electricity consumption from current levels. She added that this interim tariff, combined with the "take-or-pay" obligation exemption, would also create buffer space for Eskom and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy to finalise a more sustainable electricity pricing solution with the ferrochrome industry. Nellis Best, Chairman of the South African Ferroalloy Producers Association, confirmed that the industry needs an electricity tariff of 62¢/kWh to restart production and avoid the Section 189 retrenchment processes already initiated by several ferroalloy enterprises, including those outside the ferrochrome sector. Therefore, he also argued that the final negotiated solution should not be limited to the ferrochrome industry but should extend to manganese, silicon, and vanadium smelters—all of which are facing operational difficulties due to "escalating electricity prices." Best pointed out that only 4 of South Africa's 48 electric furnace ferrochrome smelters are currently operational; similarly, only 4 of the 19 smelters in other ferroalloy sectors remain in production. He stated, "Currently, electricity costs account for 40% to 60% of the total production costs in the ferroalloy industry. To sustain the industry, it is crucial to establish an internationally competitive electricity tariff." He also warned that without an electricity pricing policy supporting local mineral beneficiation, South Africa faces widespread deindustrialization and job losses. Theo Morkel, Managing Director of South African Cross-Alloys, further corroborated this view, sharing cost comparison data indicating that, even under the company's pricing agreement with Eskom, the electricity cost for producing SiMn is as high as $634/mt, far exceeding the international benchmark—where international SiMn production electricity costs range from as low as $147/mt to a maximum of $338/mt. Consequently, Morkel expressed support for immediately implementing the interim tariff relief for Samancor Chrome and the Glencore-Merafe chrome venture but stressed that the rest of South Africa's ferroalloy industry equally urgently requires similar relief policies, as these sectors also face plant closures and unemployment crises. Tengo Tengela, Trade and Industry Coordinator of the South African Federation of Trade Unions, also supported the electricity tariff relief application, warning that if smelters are forced to shut down, approximately 300,000 direct and indirect jobs would be at risk. However, while calling on NERSA to approve the application, he urged that it be conditional on the relevant enterprises suspending further retrenchment actions. Currently, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa has not yet announced a decision timetable for this application, but Eskom has stated that the relevant approval must be issued by the end of February at the latest.

1.29 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment Futures: Last night, the most-traded AD2603 futures contract opened and then rose rapidly, hitting a high of 23,990 yuan/mt, with the gain once approaching 1.91%. It then pulled back quickly and finally closed at 23,590 yuan/mt, down 195 yuan/mt or 0.82% from the previous close, mainly due to long position reduction. Overall, it showed a pattern of "retreat after rapid rise," and the KD indicator also retreated from highs, indicating short-term bullish momentum weakened. Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily: According to SMM data, on January 28, the theoretical spot-futures price spread between the SMM ADC12 spot price and the 10:15 closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy futures contract (AD2603) was 960 yuan/mt. Warrant Daily: SHFE data showed that on January 28, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 67,659 mt, an increase of 125 mt from the previous trading day. By region: Shanghai's total registered volume was 5,120 mt (up 607 mt); Guangdong's total registered volume was 23,526 mt (unchanged); Jiangsu's total registered volume was 10,787 mt (down 211 mt); Zhejiang's total registered volume was 21,646 mt (down 271 mt); Chongqing's total registered volume was 5,889 mt (unchanged); Sichuan's total registered volume was 691 mt (unchanged). Aluminum scrap side: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminum prices rose significantly compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 24,260 yuan/mt. Aluminum scrap market prices generally followed the increase today. Yesterday, baled UBC was quoted at 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt (ex-tax), and shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted at 19,800-20,200 yuan/mt (ex-tax). Regarding the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap: on January 28, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 3,375 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 2,461 yuan/mt. Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Jiangxi closely followed the aluminum price rise, while Henan, Foshan, Guizhou, and Anhui adjusted prices more cautiously that day, rising by 100-200 yuan/mt. Recently, directly affected by recycling policies and forced to follow the high aluminum prices, the market has shown a situation of "nominal prices without actual transactions." Scrap utilization enterprises in related provinces were forced to reduce or halt production, downstream buying sentiment was dampened, and purchasing was as needed. The aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week, with shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) mainly in the range of 19,700-20,200 yuan/mt (ex-tax). Downward pressures remain: as the Chinese New Year approaches, enterprises are gradually entering holiday schedules; scrapyard holidays starting early reduce market liquidity; downstream operations remain sluggish with strong resistance to high prices. It is necessary to closely track primary aluminum trends, weather changes, and pre-holiday production halt schedules, and be alert to the risk of a pullback from highs. Silicon Metal: On January 28, SMM non-oxygen blown #553 in east China was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt; oxygen-blown #553 at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt; #521 at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt; #441 at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt; #421 at 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt; #421 for silicone use at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt; #3303 at 10,200-10,500 yuan/mt. Some silicon prices in north-west China continued to rise. Overseas Market: Current overseas ADC12 offers remained stable at $2,850-2,880/mt, while domestic spot prices adjusted actively, with import arbitrage widening to around 600 yuan/mt. Summary: On Wednesday, aluminum prices were quoted at 24,260 yuan/mt, up 390 yuan/mt; SMM ADC12 rose 150 yuan/mt to 24,150 yuan/mt. As ADC12 showed relative resilience during the early-week aluminum price pullback, secondary aluminum enterprises adjusted prices cautiously before noon, generally following the increase by 100-200 yuan/mt. However, after 11 a.m., as futures continued to surge, market participants showed stronger willingness to catch up with gains, leading to a further increase of 200-300 yuan/mt on top of the previous adjustments. In terms of transactions, the "price without market" feature became more pronounced, with downstream buyers showing strong fear of high prices, resulting in thin overall trading. Affected by this, pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm was dampened again, and some enterprises have planned to enter holiday mode early. Demand is expected to continue weakening. Overall, although high aluminum prices and seasonal off-season demand suppress market activity, support from aluminum scrap prices on the cost side, coupled with supply tightening due to policy and environmental protection factors, suggests that secondary aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term. Subsequent focus should be on raw material circulation, downstream operating rates, and pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment. [Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]

1.29 SMM Morning Meeting Minutes Futures: During the night session on January 28, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2603 contract opened at 25,430 yuan/mt, reached a high of 25,585 yuan/mt, hit a low of 25,240 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 25,330 yuan/mt, down 310 yuan/mt or 1.21% from the previous close. Technically, the MA moving averages showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 25,038.92 > MA10: 24,692.96 > MA20: 24,428.46 > MA40: 24,042.75), while the MACD on the 4-hour candlestick chart turned to red bars (DIFF: 294.43, DEA: 201.51). In terms of open interest, the night session open interest was approximately 359,000 lots, down 3,409 lots from the daytime session. LME aluminum opened at $3,220/mt, reached a high of $3,314/mt, hit a low of $3,219/mt, and finally closed at $3,263.5/mt, up 1.59% from the previous day. Trading volume was 47,400 lots, an increase of 24,200 lots, while open interest was 699,000 lots, up 2,711 lots. Macro Front: In the early hours of Thursday, January 29, Beijing time, the US Fed concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting and announced it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. (Bullish ★) According to the State Taxation Administration, tax data showed that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the new energy vehicle industry chain continued to consolidate its leading advantage, with manufacturing sales revenue of new energy vehicles growing at an average annual rate of 49.5%; sales revenue from clean energy power generation, represented by wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, grew at an average annual rate of 13.9%. (Bullish ★) Fundamentals: The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable edged up WoW over the past week, primarily due to the commencement of ultra-high voltage projects by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid, which started to match orders won in H1. Some ultra-high voltage projects maintained construction progress despite low temperatures, supporting the operating rate and project advancement. Overseas export project demand was robust, with solar PV installation and grid upgrade projects in countries like Australia and Tanzania progressing smoothly, leading to steady growth in aluminum wire and cable exports. Aluminum wire and cable exports reached 272,000 mt in 2025, up 42% YoY, and are expected to maintain positive growth in 2026. Inventory side, social inventory built up by 5,000 mt from this Monday and by 39,000 mt from last Thursday. Primary Aluminum Market: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2602 contract rallied, with the price center moving higher than the previous trading day. Affected by high aluminum prices, downstream stockpiling sentiment was generally low, resulting in thin market trading volume. The mainstream market transactions were concentrated at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to 30 yuan/mt. This Wednesday, the selling sentiment index in the east China market was 2.76, down 0.07 WoW; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.27, up 0.12 WoW. SMM A00 aluminum closed at 24,260 yuan/mt, up 390 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 180 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trading in the central China market remained sluggish on Wednesday. As aluminum prices rose and enterprises faced year-end payment needs, suppliers' willingness to sell strengthened significantly. However, environmental protection-related controls continued to intensify in many parts of Henan, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises declined further, resulting in low overall purchasing volume. Although traders were eager to sell, actual trading volume was limited, and transaction prices continued to trend lower, hovering between a discount of 20 yuan/mt to 60 yuan/mt to the central China price. The selling sentiment index in the central China market was 2.89 on Wednesday, up 0.07 WoW, while the buying sentiment index was 1.87, down 0.28 WoW. SMM central China price closed at 24,120 yuan/mt, up 360 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, at a discount of 320 yuan/mt against the 2602 contract, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price spread between Henan and Shanghai was -140 yuan/mt, widening by 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Secondary Aluminum Raw Materials: On Wednesday, spot primary aluminum prices rose significantly from the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 24,260 yuan/mt. Aluminum scrap prices generally followed the decline today. Yesterday, baled UBC was quoted at 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt (tax excluded), and shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted at 19,800-20,200 yuan/mt (tax excluded). In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was 3,375 yuan/mt on January 28, while the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was 2,461 yuan/mt. Regions such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Jiangxi closely followed the rise in aluminum prices, while Henan, Foshan, Guizhou, and Anhui adjusted prices more cautiously, increasing by 100-200 yuan/mt. Recently, directly affected by recycling policies and forced to follow the rise in aluminum prices, the market has shown a situation of "nominal prices without actual transactions." Scrap utilization enterprises in related provinces were forced to reduce or halt production, and downstream buying sentiment cooled significantly, leading to purchasing as needed. The aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs this week, with shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) mainly ranging between 19,700-20,200 yuan/mt (tax excluded). Downward pressures remain: as the Chinese New Year approaches, enterprises are gradually entering holiday schedules, scrapyards are closing early reducing market liquidity, downstream operating rates remain low, and resistance to high prices is strong. Close attention should be paid to primary aluminum trends, weather changes, and pre-holiday production halts to guard against the risk of a pullback from highs. Secondary Aluminum Alloy: Futures side, the aluminum alloy 2603 contract opened at 23,105 yuan/mt on Wednesday, experienced minor fluctuations in the morning, then began rising around 10:00, surged to 24,090 yuan/mt in the afternoon hitting a new high since listing, then pulled back somewhat, finally closing at 23,785 yuan/mt, up 730 yuan/mt or 3.17% from the previous trading day, with the move driven mainly by short covering. Spot market: Driven by event risk and capital flows, aluminum prices surged this Wednesday. A00 aluminum was quoted at 24,260 yuan/mt, up 390 yuan/mt, while SMM ADC12 was raised 150 yuan/mt to 24,150 yuan/mt. After outperforming during the early-week pullback, ADC12 producers lifted offers cautiously by 100-200 yuan/mt in the morning; once futures extended gains past 11 a.m., follow-through momentum added another 200-300 yuan/mt. Trading, however, was best described as “quoted but not dealt.” Downstream fear of high prices intensified, leaving overall turnover thin. Pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm was dented again, with some firms already planning an earlier holiday shutdown; demand is expected to weaken further. Overall, lofty aluminum prices and seasonal off-season demand are curbing activity, yet cost-side support from aluminum scrap, plus policy- and environmental-driven supply tightening, should keep secondary aluminum alloy prices fluctuating at highs in the near term. Focus ahead: raw-material circulation, downstream operating-rate shifts and pre-holiday stockpiling sentiment. Aluminum Market Summary: The recent sharp rally in SHFE aluminum stems from three drivers: (1) escalating U.S.–Iran tensions disrupting aluminum trade flows; (2) position-limit constraints in precious metals diverting funds into base metals; (3) rising domestic alumina refinery cut expectations, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Supply side: domestic and Indonesian aluminum projects continue ramp-ups, lifting daily average output; the uptrend persists. Demand side: high prices erode downstream purchase willingness, operating rates are set to decline and spot trades have turned cautious; inventory keeps building and the liquid-aluminum share keeps falling, leaving structural supply-demand imbalance unresolved. Overall, event- and fund-driven gains have pushed SHFE aluminum sharply higher and sentiment is temporarily euphoric; beware of cooling sentiment and pullback risks ahead. [The information provided is for reference only. It does not constitute direct investment or research advice. Clients should decide prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. SMM bears no responsibility for any decisions made by clients.]

Thursday, January 29, 2026 Futures: LME copper opened at $13,111/mt overnight. At the beginning of the session, it fluctuated considerably and fell to $13,045/mt, then fluctuated upward and touched a high of $13,190.5/mt. Towards the end of the session, the price center gradually shifted downward before fluctuating upward again, finally closing at $13,120/mt, a gain of 0.74%. Trading volume reached 28,900 lots, and open interest stood at 330,000 lots, decreasing by 1,761 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating short covering. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2603 opened at 102,540 yuan/mt overnight. It touched a low of 102,260 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated upward and reached a high of 103,190 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the price center gradually shifted downward, and it consolidated horizontally near the session's end, finally closing at 102,430 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.18%. Trading volume reached 78,600 lots, and open interest stood at 225,000 lots, decreasing by 2,761 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall performance indicating short covering. [SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News: (1) On January 28, Ivanhoe Electric announced it is collaborating with lithium ore producer SQM to conduct copper exploration in parts of the Atacama Desert in northern Chile. Under the cooperation agreement, the two parties will deploy the "Typhoon" geophysical exploration system, supplemented by Computational Geosciences' data inversion software, to search for copper deposits on approximately 2,000 square kilometers of SQM's specific mining concession areas. Spot: (1) Shanghai: On the morning of January 28, the SHFE copper 2602 contract showed a "V" shape, opening with a rapid jump followed by a slight decline, probing a low of 101,580 yuan/mt, then gradually rising to close at 103,170 yuan/mt. The contango spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 350 yuan/mt to 270 yuan/mt. The import arbitrage loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was between 370-480 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, high copper prices continue to suppress downstream consumption, with weak end-user procurement leading to continuous inventory accumulation in China. The persistently wide spread amid high inventory enhances suppliers' willingness to deliver to warehouses, thereby suppressing spot market liquidity and providing support for the recovery of spot premiums/discounts. Furthermore, as month-end approaches, demand for cargoes with invoices dated this month weakens for some suppliers. Prices for cargoes with next-month invoices are rising due to suppliers' firm holding sentiment. The discount center is expected to converge. (2) Guangdong: On January 28, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was traded at a discount of 350-120 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 235 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 410-390 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous day. The average price for #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,515 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price for SX-EW copper was 101,350 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, inventory ended its consecutive decline and increased again, while spot trades were mediocre and premiums were flat compared to the previous day. (3) Imported copper: On January 28, warrant prices were $13-27/mt, QP February, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $15-25/mt, QP February, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$18/mt to -$6/mt, QP February, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in the first half of February. (4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on January 28, the futures closing price was 103,170 yuan/mt, up 1,490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -240 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of copper scrap remained unchanged MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 90,200-90,400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,699 yuan/mt, up 973 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,250 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, due to the impact of overseas geopolitical factors, market risk aversion sentiment surged sharply, and prices of multiple metal varieties rose. This led to concerns among many end-users about insufficient stockpiling before the Chinese New Year, prompting them to place purchase orders as much as possible within the day. Trading activity in the secondary copper rod market was moderate. Prices: On the macro front, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its January meeting, but there is still room for interest rate cuts later. US-Iran geopolitical tensions continued to escalate, with the US stepping up action warnings. The Iranian military recently clearly signaled: "Once national security is threatened, the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked." Sentiment in the precious metals market heated up, with gold prices hitting new highs, and copper prices also gained upward momentum. On the fundamentals side, supply side, affected by the widening price spread between futures contracts, suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses increased, and spot market circulation tightened. Demand side, suppressed by high copper prices, downstream consumption performed weakly. Overall, copper prices are expected to continue rising today. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

On January 28, 2026, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,400-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,550-8,650 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for Indian high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day. The ferrochrome market operated steadily during the day. Tight supply combined with cost support kept producers firm in holding prices, with little likelihood of a price pullback in the short term. However, downstream stainless steel futures and spot prices retreated, and with the approaching Chinese New Year holiday, news of production cuts emerged, suggesting potential weakening in ferrochrome purchase demand. Meanwhile, new ferrochrome capacity continues to be released, and a subsequent supply surplus may weigh on ferrochrome prices. The market is currently focusing on the pace of new capacity release and the sustainability of downstream stainless steel demand to gauge the future price trend of ferrochrome. On the raw material side, on January 28, 2026, the spot offer for 40-42% South African concentrate at Tianjin Port was 57-58 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% South African raw ore was 52-54 yuan/mtu; the offer for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate was 59-60 yuan/mtu; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore was 60-61 yuan/mtu; the offer for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore was 64-65 yuan/mtu, and the offer for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate was 65-66 yuan/mtu, up 0.5-1.5 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. In the futures market, the latest offer for 40-42% South African concentrate was $297/mt, up $10 MoM. During the day, chrome ore futures and spot prices continued to rise. In the spot market, tight supply and high costs fostered some reluctance to sell and firm price sentiment, while another increase in futures prices bolstered trader confidence. However, considering that winter stockpiling demand is largely exhausted, a wait-and-see sentiment is emerging in the market, and expectations for future price trends are cautious. In the futures market, the latest offer from the main mine for South African concentrate was $297/mt, up $10 MoM. Zimbabwe, affected by both mining policies and the rainy season, faces rising costs and higher offers, making local purchases relatively difficult. Futures offers are close to psychological expectations, but traders exhibit some fear of high prices, adjusting their subsequent stockpiling and purchase pace.

Overnight, the LME zinc contract opened at $3,370/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated near the daily average line before its price center edged up slightly. During European trading hours, it touched a high of $3,429/mt. Entering the night session, the price center gradually moved lower, ultimately closing up at $3,375.5/mt, an increase of $17/mt or 0.51%. Trading volume increased to 14,032 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,107 lots to 233,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc recorded a five-day winning streak, with the center of the daily candlestick moving higher. Due to escalating tensions in Iran, gold prices hit new highs again, and aluminum and zinc prices rose significantly. As the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the US dollar index rebounded, causing the gains to narrow. Market participants are monitoring geopolitical risks. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2603 contract opened at 25,450 yuan/mt. In early trading, it followed the daily average line lower, probing a low of 25,260 yuan/mt before its price center moved higher to touch a high of 25,515 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the price center moved lower again, ultimately closing up at 25,320 yuan/mt, an increase of 105 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Trading volume decreased to 108,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 2,429 lots to 116,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bearish candlestick, with the KDJ indicator's opening narrowing. Increased geopolitical uncertainty overnight led to SHFE zinc primarily fluctuating at highs. The SHFE raised the price limit fluctuation margin to 9%, and the margin ratio was also raised to 10% and 11%. With high speculative interest, zinc prices are unlikely to see a significant correction in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,027.5/mt, fluctuated rangebound along the daily average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, the rangebound trend continued with an expanded range of $2,016-2,036/mt. It finally closed at $2,027/mt, down $1/mt or 0.-05%. A small bearish candlestick was recorded. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 17,000 yuan/mt. After briefly weakening at the beginning of the session, it quickly climbed above the 17,000 yuan mark and fluctuated rangebound. After touching a high of 17,055 yuan/mt, it declined again, giving up part of the gains. It finally closed at 17,010 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt or 0.09%, ending a four-day losing streak and forming a small bullish candlestick, with the KDJ lines converging. On the macro front: The US Fed pressed the pause button at its January meeting, keeping interest rates in the 3.5-3.75% range; Milan and Waller supported a 25-basis-point rate cut. Powell reiterated that rates are at the high end of the neutral range, policy is not on a preset course, decisions are data-dependent, and indicated that policy could be relaxed if tariff-induced inflation peaks and pulls back. He advised his successor to stay away from politics. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is studying and drafting a working document on promoting central state-owned enterprises to cultivate emerging pillar industries. The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin levels and price limits for silver deferred contracts; the SHFE adjusted the price limits and trading margin ratios for related futures contracts such as gold, silver, and nickel. : SHFE lead was in the doldrums. Suppliers sold goods following the market trend, and as it was the month-end period, some suppliers actively recouped funds, leading to expanded premiums for cargoes self-picked up from the production site against the SHFE lead 2603 contract. A small number of lead smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, mainly shipping under long-term contracts. Quotations from mainstream producing areas were at premiums of around -50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory. Divergence persisted among secondary lead enterprises regarding shipments; individual enterprises halted shipments for early holidays, while others actively shipped goods. Secondary refined lead quotations were at premiums of -200 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-factory. Downstream enterprises had limited procurement demand at month-end, with only a few making just-in-time procurement. Spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On January 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,425 mt to 211,175 mt. As of January 26, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions maintained an upward trend. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Environmental protection-related controls were implemented again in regions like central and east China, with some lead smelters cooperating to cut production by 30%, and individual enterprises halted production for holidays. Due to tight supply in the scrap battery market, the impact on raw material arrivals was not prominent. Currently, leading downstream battery producers are facing significant finished product inventory pressure, while small and medium-sized battery enterprises are only sporadically purchasing lead ingots, with overall pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm being mediocre. Regional tightening on the supply side will alleviate the pressure of continuous lead ingot inventory buildup. As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, be cautious of the bearish sentiment on lead prices being amplified by the supply-demand dual decline trend. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.