Latest Update in the SMM Rare-earth Magnet Market

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Active Restocking Purchases in Downstream Sector Keep Pr-Nd Prices Holding Up Well] The price of Pr-Nd oxide followed a pattern of rising first and then dropping back slightly this week. Due to environmental assessments and quota restrictions, some separation plants suspended production in December, which is expected to lead to a significant tightening in the supply of Pr-Nd oxide. Against the backdrop of an already tight supply-demand balance for Pr-Nd oxide, suppliers grew more confident about the future market, rapidly driving offers up to 600,000 yuan/mt. However, given insufficient follow-through from downstream buyers and difficulty in concluding transactions at high prices, the price of Pr-Nd oxide pulled back slightly to 585,000-590,000 yuan/mt.

SMM December 1: Currently, the price range for Pr-Nd oxide is 595,000-598,000 yuan/mt. Although some suppliers have raised their offers to over 600,000 yuan/mt, inquiries from metal enterprises remain concentrated around 595,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the price of Pr-Nd alloy fluctuates between 725,000-735,000 yuan/mt, with most major producers quoting near 735,000 yuan/mt, while magnetic material enterprises tend to purchase at 715,000-720,000 yuan/mt. Notably, compared to earlier levels, the price of Pr-Nd oxide has increased by 30,000 yuan/mt, and that of Pr-Nd alloy has risen by 36,500 yuan/mt. The main driver behind the price movement of Pr-Nd products is concern over undersupply of the oxide. 

Recent sharp price increases in Pr-Nd have significantly impacted the NdFeB permanent magnet industry chain. On the first day of December, spot Pr-Nd oxide quotes surged by 30,000 yuan/mt to 596,500 yuan/mt in a single day, while Pr-Nd alloy prices rose by 36,500 yuan/mt to 730,000 yuan/mt. This price surge is primarily driven by tightening supply expectations: rare earth supply is becoming constrained, while demand from sectors such as wind power and NEVs remains robust, leading to a pronounced supply-demand imbalance. 

This week, the global rare earth market was characterized by two main themes: "policy-driven" and "supply chain restructuring." Countries such as India, Malaysia, and the European Union strengthened their domestic capacity through industrial policies, while the US promoted self-sufficiency in key sectors through national defense investments. Resource-rich nations like Kazakhstan seized the opportunity to enhance their positions in the supply chain.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Downstream Restocking Purchases Active, Pr-Nd Prices Hold Up Well] Pr-Nd oxide prices held up well overall this week, as downstream buyers concentrated on restocking, boosting market confidence among upstream suppliers, leading to widespread price increases and making low-priced supplies difficult to find. However, at the same time, some metal plants still believe that Pr-Nd oxide prices are unlikely to see a significant rise later this year, and purchasing intensity has not noticeably increased.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) says repeated grid interruptions this month at its new Kalgoorlie cracking-and-leaching plant will leave a shortfall in mixed rare earth carbonate feed this quarter, constraining finished product from its Malaysian refinery.

US-based MP Materials announced the establishment of a rare earth refining joint venture in Saudi Arabia with the US Department of Defense and Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden). This news drove MP Materials' stock price up by over 10% in early trading. This joint venture, one of the first rare earth refineries in the Middle East, will process rare earth raw materials from Saudi Arabia and other regions to produce separated light and heavy rare earth oxides. Under the agreement, Saudi Maaden will hold no less than 51% of the controlling stake, while MP Materials and the US Department of Defense will jointly own 49% of the shares, with the US Department of Defense providing non-recourse funding. With this move by MP Materials, rare earth development in the Middle East, represented by Saudi Arabia, has come into public view. 

Against the backdrop of the current US-China rivalry, China's export control policies on rare earths have prompted Western countries to deeply recognize the strategic importance of rare earth elements. To reduce their reliance on China, the West is actively attempting to build a complete rare earth industry chain, from mining to magnet manufacturing. However, the development cycle for rare earth resources is lengthy, and China holds an absolute technological advantage and economies of scale in rare earth mining, separation, and smelting. This makes it extremely difficult for the West to achieve breakthroughs in the industry chain in the short term, unable to meet their urgent immediate needs.