SMM

Today, HRC futures continued their downward trend, closing at 3,376, down 1.55%. Supply side, this week's impact from HRC maintenance was 129,500 mt, up 94,500 mt WoW. Next week's impact from HRC maintenance is expected to reach 167,100 mt, up 3.76 WoW, easing supply pressure to some extent. Demand side, end-use demand in the manufacturing sector remains in a continuous recovery phase, while daily steel transactions weakened due to the bearish futures market. Looking ahead, with the domestic macro Two Sessions approaching, policy expectations have not yet been disappointed, and market demand is gradually recovering. The biggest imbalance currently lies in overseas trade frictions, as Vietnam and South Korea impose tariffs on China's sheet & plate products. In the short term, sentiment still needs to stabilize, and prices may see slight downward adjustments. However, in the medium and long-term, China's sheet & plate products, whether through price advantages or transshipment via other countries, are unlikely to see export volumes completely disappear. As sentiment stabilizes and policy expectations are priced in, the short-term downside for prices is limited.