SMM

[SMM Aluminum Morning Brief: Aluminum Prices Under Strong Expectations but Weak Reality, More Likely to Rise Than Fall Driven by Macro Sentiment and Trading Expectations] Macro side, the potential new trade agreement between China and the US has drawn continuous market attention. Fundamentals side, cost side support continues to weaken; supply side remains stable with slight increases, overall changes are relatively small; demand side, driven by rising aluminum prices, end-user enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see approach, while shipments from downstream aluminum semis enterprises show little improvement. Factory raw material inventory turnover days are struggling to rebound, with restocking mainly based on rigid demand and consumption of finished product inventories. Inventory side, SMM's weekly inventory in major aluminum consumption regions recorded 845,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of 27,000 mt. The absolute inventory level continues to rise, but the growth rate is slowing. Currently, most suppliers are optimistic about the future aluminum market and expect that after entering March, the inventory turning point will gradually emerge. With policy support, aluminum ingot inventories are expected to remain at low levels for an extended period, and spot market sentiment of holding back cargoes is intensifying. Under strong expectations but weak reality, aluminum prices, driven by macro sentiment and trading expectations, are more likely to rise than fall.