SMM

[SMM Analysis] The import window for copper cathode has rapidly deteriorated. As of February 21, the import loss for the SHFE copper 2503 contract has exceeded 1,300 yuan/mt, which also indicates that the export window for copper cathode has reopened significantly since May 2024. Looking back, when the export window opened in May 2024, the import loss reached a peak of 2,000 yuan/mt, with cumulative exports from May to June totaling 230,000 mt, and a record-high monthly export of 150,000 mt in June. Will this collapse in the SHFE/LME price ratio trigger another wave of massive exports? What opportunities does this present for domestic smelters?