SMM

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Alumina Struggles to Rebound, SHFE Aluminum Rises with Increased Positions] Alumina futures continued to decline, though the pace of decline has slowed compared to earlier periods. In the short term, the downside room is limited, but in the medium and long-term, the downward trend in the center remains unchanged due to capacity factors. Recently, there has been a continuous stream of favorable macro news, with frequent overseas measures on tariffs and anti-dumping duties, coupled with domestic policy efforts in China to drive investment in emerging industries. However, in the short term, the global aluminum market will undergo structural adjustments influenced by policies. Risks to watch include the escalation of overseas trade conflicts and the drag on aluminum consumption caused by persistently weak domestic demand. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work and production by aluminum processing enterprises has accelerated, combined with the approach of the traditional peak season in March. Operating rates across various sectors still have upside room, but attention should be paid to the recovery of end-use consumption and changes in the export market. In the future, with the increase in PV demand and the comprehensive resumption of work and production by end-users, while supply-side increments remain limited, aluminum prices are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term.