SMM

[SMM Morning Comment on Alumina: Mine Quotations Lowered, Alumina May Continue to Decline] Overall, supply side, some alumina refineries in northern regions reported maintenance this week, which may slightly impact alumina supply in the short term. The weekly operating rate of alumina decreased slightly by 0.33 percentage points this week. Demand side, some aluminum production cuts and technological transformation capacities in Sichuan and other regions may gradually resume production, leading to an increase in alumina demand. Cost side, due to the sharp decline in spot alumina prices, alumina refineries have significantly reduced their acceptance of high-priced bauxite. Quotations from bauxite holders have also decreased, and imported bauxite prices have fallen. Alumina production costs may decline accordingly. However, the current spot transaction prices of alumina in northern regions are below the theoretical marginal production cost. Overall, large-scale production cuts in alumina have not yet occurred. The spot alumina market remains relatively well-supplied, and the downward trend in spot transaction prices persists, with short-term prices likely to continue declining.