SMM

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: Alumina Rebounds on Reduced Positions, SHFE Aluminum Fluctuates Downward, Moves Downwards After a Higher Opening] Large-scale production cuts in alumina have not yet occurred. Coupled with profit compression, the cost of alumina is expected to decline accordingly. The alumina spot market remains relatively ample in supply, and the downward trend in spot transaction prices persists, likely continuing in the short term. On the aluminum supply side, the pressure of resumed production has re-emerged, with domestic aluminum operating capacity in February expected to increase slightly. Consumption is in a recovery phase, with downstream sectors largely resuming operations, though recovery varies across different segments. In the future, as PV demand increases and end-users fully resume production, while supply-side increments remain limited, aluminum prices are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term. Due to incomplete recovery in consumption, the market is still in a post-holiday inventory buildup phase, with inventory buildup likely to continue during the week. However, overall inventory pressure remains relatively small.