Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,865/mt. After the opening, shorts increased their positions, causing LME lead to fluctuate downward. During the European session, it continued to decline, reaching a low of $1,837.5/mt. As Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies for most economies, LME lead surged in the late session, touching a high of $1,875.5/mt, and finally closed at $1,865/mt, down 0.27%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened at 16,365 yuan/mt. After briefly touching a low of 16,315 yuan/mt at the start, it fluctuated upward, briefly reaching a high of 16,690 yuan/mt, then oscillated around the 16,460 yuan/mt level, and finally closed at 16,465 yuan/mt, down 0.06%.
》Click to view SMM lead spot historical prices
Macro Perspective:
Just 13 hours after taking effect, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariff policies for most economies to allow for negotiations. The White House stated that a 10% global tariff would still be imposed during the negotiation period, and previously announced tariffs on industries such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum were not included in the suspension. China resolutely countered with a "stimulus policy package." The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 84%.
In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 16,425-16,500 yuan/mt, with a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC lead was quoted at 16,425-16,450 yuan/mt, at parity with the SHFE lead 2505 contract. As the decline in SHFE lead expanded, some suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices and suspended quotations, leading to a noticeable reduction in offers. Meanwhile, smelters' self-picked up cargoes also saw a synchronous reduction in offers. Both primary and secondary lead smelters mainly focused on shipments under long-term contracts. Downstream enterprises showed moderate inquiry interest, with some purchasing on demand at low prices. Spot order market transactions were generally flat.
Inventory: On April 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 125 mt to 235,600 mt. As of April 7, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM stood at 69,900 mt, down by over 100 mt compared to March 31, and down by 2,700 mt compared to March 31.
》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
Recently, the center of lead price movement has significantly shifted downward. Secondary lead smelters are under considerable cost pressure, and there is still a possibility of further reductions in raw material offers. Waste lead-acid battery recyclers are hesitant to sell due to the price decline, and some smelters reported improved arrivals. However, some smelters remain concerned about future supply conditions. After this round of recyclers' sell-off, supply may enter a phase of tightness again, prompting some to consider reducing or halting production. With macro headwinds temporarily easing and considering spot performance, short-term lead prices may have a limited rebound potential.
