[SMM Conference] Global Metal Elites Gather at SME 2025, Linking International Industry Networks and Decoding 2026 Metal Price Trends

On November 26, the Shanghai Metals Expo (SME) 2025, organized by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. and SMM Trading Center Co., Ltd., wrapped up successfully in Shanghai, China!

With the core theme of "Building a Global Metals Community of Shared Destiny and Promoting New Industrial Development amidst Evolving Landscape," the conference, featuring a diverse and rich agenda, brought together prominent guests from the global metals industry, becoming an annual industry event integrating the functions of an "information hub, pricing reference, transaction matching, and cooperation platform."

During the conference, dozens of global industry leaders and experts conducted in-depth discussions on key issues across the entire metals industry chain, covering core dimensions such as market outlook, industry chain competition, trading strategies, and green transformation. In the market trend analysis segment, participants focused on the trends of the base metals market in 2026 and the impact of global macroeconomics on the metals market, providing in-depth analyses of lead-zinc price trends in 2026 against the backdrop of supply-demand mismatch while looking ahead to the global supply-demand pattern for non-ferrous metal ore resources. In the in-depth industry chain analysis session, there were systematic interpretations of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry chain from a dual-dimensional perspective, practical suggestions on the terms of lead-zinc ore import contracts, and discussions on the potential impact of US reciprocal tariffs on China's lead-zinc market.

Focusing on the core sectors of new energy and green transformation, the guests exchanged views on dozens of topics including:

Development Paths of Base Metals under the 'Dual Carbon' Goals;
Current Situation and Future of New Energy as a New Growth Engine for Industrial Development;
Challenges and Prospects for the Metals Industry in Energy Transition

These speakers provided in-depth analyses of the direction for shaping the green competitiveness of the non-ferrous industry driven by new energy. The special sessions on trading strategies and risk management featured notable highlights, with two themed trading strategy interviews on nickel-cobalt-lithium and copper-aluminum-tin, focusing on the new market equilibrium and the evolution of arbitrage logic brought about by technological iteration and green transformation; an expert at Marex also shared practical experiences on "Weathering Commodity Market Challenges— How To Lead Through Counterparty Risk Management"

The conference featured multiple panel discussions and seminars, including:

The New Ecosystem of Bulk Commodities Integrating Spot and Futures Markets, Finance, and Industry, and How the Eastern Pricing Center Will Benefit the Global Metal Industry;
Decoding Copper and Aluminum Prices;
Warehousing and Logistics Innovation Driving Sustainable Industrial Development.

Global participants shared their insights and engaged in intellectual exchanges, exploring comprehensive pathways for high-quality industrial development. With its professional agenda and in-depth discussions, the conference established a core platform for efficient communication and cooperation within the global metals industry, injecting strong momentum into building a shared future for metals and charting a new blueprint for the industry.

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Opening Addresses

Tingjun Lin, Director of the Shanghai Pudong New Area Commerce Commission

Yi Kang, Former President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA)

Logan Lu, CEO of SMM

Award Ceremony

2025 SMM Top 20 High-Quality Copper Traders

2025 SMM Top 10 High-Quality Aluminum Traders

2025 SMM Top 10 High-Quality Lead Traders

2025 SMM Top 10 High-Quality Zinc Traders

Guest Speech

November 24

2025 SMM Base Metals Year-End Strategy Conference

Speech: Market Outlook for Base Metals in 2026

Guest Speaker: Frank Liu, Director of Big Data, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.

Speech: Analysis of the Competitive Landscape in the Aluminum Industry Chain from a Dual-Dimensional Perspective

Guest Speaker: Xizhi Yao, Chief Analyst, General Manager of Market Research Center, China Aluminum International Trading Group Co., Ltd

Trading Strategy Interview(Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium): The Evolution of New Balance and Arbitrage Logic in the Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium Market Driven by Technological Iteration and Green Transformation

The impact mechanism of resource supply landscape restructuring on the price fluctuations of nickel, cobalt, and lithium
Material demand restructuring driven by battery technology iteration and inter-temporal/cross-product price spread strategies
The impact of regional green barriers on the cost curve and price spread structure of nickel, cobalt, and lithium
Cost structure reshaping and cross-link profit strategies in the vertical integration of the industry chain

Moderator:

Maria Ma, Head of Research in New Energy Industry, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.

Panelists:

Yunhu Zhao, Deputy General Manager, Nantong Reshine New Material Co., Ltd.

Jiayan He, Vice President, Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Industry Group Co., Ltd./Tianqi Lithium Corporation

Xiaoshan Tan, Director of LFP Material Development, Guangzhou Great Power Energy and Technology Co., Ltd.

Trading Strategy Interview (Copper, Aluminum, Tin): Global Macroeconomic Outlook and Its Impact On Metal Market

The Impact of Anti-globalization Challenges on Copper, Aluminum, and Tin Arbitrage between Futures and Spot Markets
The Impact of Geopolitical Challenges on the Development of Copper, Aluminum, and Tin Markets
Impact of Industry Chain Localization on the Development of Copper and Aluminum Industries
The Impact of Mining Protectionism on the Cost Side of Copper, Aluminum, and Tin

Moderator:
Shum Long, Deputy General Manager, South China Office, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.

Panelists:

Heng Zhang, General Manager, Western Mining Co., Ltd. Marketing Branch

Hongyan Ni, Deputy General Manager, Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd.

Xiongjun Chen, Deputy General Manager, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd.

Goya Gu, Head of Copper, China Region, Vitol(China) Energy Co. Ltd.

Speech: Green and Low Carbon — The Development Path of Base Metals Under the "Dual Carbon" Goals

Guest Speaker: Yuan Tian, Key Account Manager, Sungrow Renewables Development Co., Ltd.

2025 SMM Lead and Zinc Annual Conference

Speech: Some Suggestions on the Terms of Lead and Zinc Ore Import Contracts

Guest Speaker: Jingjuan Zhang, Manager of Shaanxi Soft Micro Trading Co., Ltd.

Contract Pricing Terms

Conventional Pricing Operations

Buyer Pricing

The LME cash settlement price is used; the futures 3M price is priced, and then adjusted according to the QP.

Existing Issues

After all, LME visible inventory is very low, and fund speculation forcing short-covering or soft squeezes causes the LME cash settlement price to exceed the 3M price, forming a high backwardation.

Strategies

It is recommended to stipulate in the contract that when the LME cash settlement price is higher than the 3M price, the 3M price shall be used as the final settlement price at the time of pricing.

It is recommended to add a clause:

When the LME cash settlement price is higher than the 3M price, the 3M price shall be used as the final contract settlement price at the time of pricing.

Panel: Trading Opportunities in the Lead and Zinc Market in 2026

How do you view the opportunities in the price spread between futures contracts for lead and zinc?
Given the expected increase in zinc production by domestic smelters in 2026, how can one seize the domestic and overseas arbitrage opportunities?
What is the expected outlook for zinc processing in 2026, and when will the increase in mine production materialize?
With significant fluctuations in the SHFE/LME price ratio, what are the opportunities for importing and exporting lead-zinc ore/ingots in 2026?
With the simultaneous implementation of policies to boost domestic demand and increase overseas tariffs, is there a promising outlook for lead-zinc consumption in 2026?

Moderator:

Wenming Xia, Senior Analyst, Lead and Zinc Group Industry Research, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd

Panelists:

Chunlin Wu, Deputy Manager, Chihong Industrial Development (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

Jingjuan Zhang, Manager, Shaanxi Soft Micro Trading Co., Ltd.

Xiaomei Zhang, Deputy General Manager, Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd.

Xiaoyan Zhou, Lead and Zinc Manager, Sanshui Industrial Co., Ltd.

Zihang Zeng, Research Director of Supply Chain Center, Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd.

Weixin Shen, Chairman, Jiangsu Haibao New Energy Co., Ltd.

Speech: Analysis of the Current Situation and "Hot Topics" in the Consumer Market of the Zinc Industry in 2025

Guest Speaker: Ping Luo, Researcher, Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd.

Current Status and Hot Topics in the Zinc Industry Consumer Market

Differentiated Performance of Chinese Demand

Excluding durable goods, other consumer sectors such as real estate and infrastructure; based on the current situation, it is difficult to expect a fundamental turnaround.

Real estate is constrained by high levels of pending sale area, and is expected to remain poor in 2026.

Infrastructure procurement, fixed asset investment growth showed a pull back in H2 this year, funding for key projects also experienced a slowdown, infrastructure in 2026 is more reliant on government investment.

Steady Domestic Demand + Export Growth in 2026

Measured by element (processed goods + finished goods), the volume of China's overseas exports is increasing annually, at 4% in 2018, reaching 8% in 2024, and expected to reach 9% in 2025, totaling 680,000 mt of zinc, an 18% year-on-year increase.

Reviewing changes in major countries for galvanizing exports and the recovery of overseas processing capacity, Chinese products are still expected to have strong export advantages in 2026.

White goods and automobiles have a more pronounced advantage, so the export-oriented segment of China's consumption is expected to maintain growth in 2026.

Domestic zinc apparent consumption is projected to grow 0%-1% in 2025.

Speech: China's Lead-Zinc Market Under the US Reciprocal Tariffs

Guest Speaker: Zhaoming Shen, Director of Research Institute, CITIC Futures Co., Ltd.

2025 Lead Market Review

Lead prices generally exhibited a volatile upward trend in 2025, with high scrap battery prices providing solid bottom support. Since 2025, increased trade-in funds have stimulated e-bike and auto sales, the implementation of Document No. 770 has reduced operating rates at some regional secondary lead smelters, and US Fed interest rate cuts, along with eased China-US trade relations, have all contributed to periodic strength in lead prices.

2025 Zinc Market Review

The zinc ingot oversupply materialized relatively smoothly in 2025, leading to a gradual decline in the SHFE zinc price center. However, in Q3, expectations of domestic "anti-involution" policies triggered a sharp rise in ferrous metal prices, prompting galvanized product traders to rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn. Simultaneously, influenced by the decline in the US dollar index, the SHFE zinc price center stopped falling and stabilized since Q3. Nonetheless, due to low zinc smelting TC Benchmark in 2025, overseas zinc smelters had weak incentives to increase production. LME zinc inventory continued to draw down, triggering a short squeeze. Combined with a weaker US dollar index providing more significant support to LME zinc, LME zinc prices first declined and then rose during 2025.

Speech: How Will the Prices of Lead and Zinc Evolve in 2026 Under Supply-Demand Mismatch?

Guest Speaker: Zhen Han, Senior Manager of Industry Research (Lead and Zinc)

Zhen Han shared insights on the topic "How will the prices of lead and zinc evolve in 2026 amid supply-demand mismatch?". She pointed out that looking ahead to 2026, the global zinc concentrate market is expected to shift to a tight supply situation, while the zinc ingot market may see a significant oversupply. For the lead market, SMM expects the current global refined lead market to be in a state of tight supply, with the lead market likely to show a slight oversupply in 2026, with the surplus mainly concentrated domestically.

Global Zinc Concentrate Production Increased Significantly in 2025, Growth Expected to Narrow in 2026

SMM expects global zinc concentrate production to increase by over 5% YoY in 2025, driven by new capacity releases and production resumptions. The increments are relatively concentrated by continent, with significant growth in Europe, the CIS, Latin America, and Africa.

Although mines will continue to ramp up production in 2026, overall production growth is expected to narrow to below 4%, due to declining raw ore grades and reduced zinc concentrate production in Latin America and North America.

Profit Support + New Capacity Release: Domestic Zinc Concentrate Production Expected to Increase by 70,000 mt in 2025

For domestic zinc concentrates, SMM expects that, supported by mine profits in 2025, most mines will resume normal production, coupled with the steady release of new capacity, leading to an estimated annual zinc concentrate production increase of around 70,000 mt YoY. The main increments are concentrated in the Northwest, North China, and Central China regions.

Zinc Concentrate Imports Projected to Increase to Around 5 Million mt in Physical Content in 2025, Imports Expected to Decline YoY in 2026

From January to October 2025, cumulative zinc concentrate imports reached 4.348 million mt in physical content, up over 36% YoY, with overall imports remaining high, mainly due to increased overseas mine production and sustained long-term contract arrivals. In 2026, although the import ratio is unfavorable, mines from major overseas sources supplying the domestic market (such as those in Russia and Iran) are still expected to see increments, and imports are projected to be basically flat.

However, it should be noted that the "New National Standard" replaces GB/T 20424-2006 and was officially implemented on September 1, 2025. Among the changes, a TI limit of 0.02% was added for zinc concentrates, and the AS limit was adjusted from 0.6% to 0.5%. The import standard for zinc concentrates has been raised.

Tianjin Port Free Trade Zone Bulk Trade Investment Promotion Conference

Guest Check-in

Opening Address

Tianjin Port Free Trade Zone Promotional Video

Promotion of New Opportunities in the Nonferrous Metals Industry Development in Tianjin Port Free Trade Zone

Remarks by Representative Outstanding Enterprises

Strategic Signing Ceremony

Networking Session

November 25

SME 2025 - Main Forum

Speech: Global Macroeconomic Trend Forecast and Market Outlook

Guest Speaker: Zhenhai Hou, Founder and Chief Strategist, Hanwuji (Shanghai) Management Consulting Co., Ltd.

Speech: Current Status and Future Trends in the Supply and Demand of Global Non-Ferrous Metal Mineral Resources

Guest Speaker: Qing Zhu, Professor, China University of Geosciences

Speech: Current Situation and Future of New Energy as a New Growth Engine for Industrial Development

Guest Speaker: Haihua Cao, Chief Analyst, Changjiang Securities Co., Ltd.

Current Status: Outstanding Global Competitiveness, Profitability Under Pressure Due to Supply-Demand Imbalance

Rapid Demand Growth, Rapid Supply Expansion

Ø Since 2020, global "carbon neutrality" initiatives have commenced, ushering in an era of major development for new energy. Global new PV installations in 2025 are expected to approach 600 GW, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% over the past five years.

Ø Against the backdrop of surging PV demand, the supply side experienced rapid expansion. Current capacity for each segment of the industry chain exceeds 1,000 GW, leading to a significant decline in capacity utilization rates, with the polysilicon segment's rate even falling below 50%.

Ø The electrification of new energy vehicles has driven explosive growth in the lithium battery industry chain. The global lithium battery penetration rate increased from 2% in 2018 to over 20% in H1 2025. Coupled with the rapid increase in ESS installations, global lithium battery demand has achieved steady growth.

Amid rising volumes and prices, the industry chain enters an expansion cycle, leading to oversupply and a gradual release of capacity, which in turn results in a gradual decline in the capacity utilization rate. With expectations of renewed demand growth, the supply chain's capacity utilization rate gradually rises.

Panel Discussion: Panel Discussion: The New Ecosystem of Bulk Commodities Integrating Spot and Futures Markets, Finance, and Industry, and How the Eastern Pricing Center Will Benefit the Global Metal Industry

Moderator:

Catherine Zhang, LME Vice President of Business Development, London Metal Exchange

Panelists:

Ryan Dong, Chairman & General Manager, SMM Trading Center Co., Ltd.

Liangxin Liu, General Manager, Shanghai Jintian Copper Co., Ltd.

Xiongjun Chen, Deputy General Manager, Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd.

Ye Li, Assistant to the President, Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd.

Eric Medel, Market Insights and Strategy Expert, Codelco

Speech: Warehousing and Logistics Innovation Driving Sustainable Development of the Metals Industry

Guest Speaker: Yichen Li, General Manager, SIPG i-Warehousing (Shanghai) Warehouse Management Co., Ltd.

Self-Owned Resources—Warehouse Yards

Futures Delivery Resources

• Designated delivery warehouse by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange.

• "SIPG i-Warehousing," which is a comprehensive integrated information platform for bulk commodities

• Provides warehousing, transportation, and upstream/downstream supply chain services for non-ferrous metals and plastics.

•Warehouse Qualifications: Non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel), ferrous metals (rebar, hot-rolled coil), international copper, natural rubber, PP polypropylene, PE polyethylene, PVC polyvinyl chloride.

Speech Topic: Technology and Data-Driven, Trade and Finance Integration, Empowering a New Ecosystem for the Non-Ferrous Industry

Guest Speaker: Ryan Dong, Chairman and General Manager of SMM Trading Center Co., Ltd.

Trading Center's Tenth Anniversary, A New Phase

Achievement 1: Overview: Initial Establishment of the Trading Center Ecosystem

Achievement 2: Tool - The "An Hui Da Platform" Significantly Enhances Bulk Commodity Trade

Utilizing technical means, full-process online enhancement of trade security and efficiency, transaction efficiency improved by 5-10 times

Speech Topic: Financial Infrastructure Empowers Industry Chain Upgrades and Drives Value Innovation: An Introduction to the Commodity Clearing Business of Shanghai Clearing House.

Guest Speaker: Xu Wang, Senior Manager of Business Department Three III, Shanghai Clearing House

Speech Topic: New Energy Powers Industrial Transformation: Shaping Green Competitiveness in the Nonferrous Metals Sector

Guest Speaker: Jinqiang Wang, Director of Zero-Carbon Integrated Energy Business Development, Envision

Speech Topic: Financial Instruments and Policies to Support Risk Management in the Metal Industry

Guest Speaker: Ting Li, Investment Consulting Department Manager, Tongguan Jinyuan Futures Co., Ltd.

Risk Management Helps Enterprises Achieve Stable Operations

The Role of the Futures Market in Serving the Real Economy

The Necessity of Enterprise Risk Management

Cyclical Nature: Industries experience cyclical fluctuations, leading to significant volatility in corporate profits. They are highly sensitive to the macroeconomy and heavily reliant on policies.

Profit Distribution in the Industry Chain Model: Both procurement costs and sales revenue are subject to fluctuations. Traditional procurement and pricing models are prone to creating price scissors. Profit distribution within the industry chain resembles a zero-sum game, intensifying conflicts over profit allocation.

Controlling Production and Operating Costs: Cost control in procurement, inventory, and sales management. The conflict between overstocking during peak seasons and destocking during off-seasons.

2025 SME Metals Future Outlook Seminar - Insights・Strategy・Tomorrow

Opening Remarks

Logan Lu, CEO of SMM

Speech Topic: Market Analysis in CME: Trends in Base Metal and Battery Metal Markets

Panel Discussion: Decoding Copper and Aluminum Prices and Base Metal Market Trends

Moderator:

Charles Ci, Copper Senior Analyst, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.

Panelists:

Noel Ruan, Managing Director, Jin Li Industrial International Pte. Ltd.

Anant Jatia, Founder & CIO, Greenland Investment Management

Patrick Seymour, Global Co-Head of Metals Market Making, Marex

Mingxin Guo, Aluminum Senior Analyst, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.

Market Analysis in Marex: Weathering Commodity Market Challenges by Marex — How To Lead Through Counterparty Risk Management

Guest Speaker: Winnie Fok, Head of Credit Risk in APAC, Marex

Panel Discussion: The Metal Industry in Energy Transition—Challenges and Prospects

Moderator:

Ling Zhou, Head of APAC Commercial Client Coverage, CME Group

Panelists:

Maria Ma, Head of New Energy Industry Research, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd

Kingsley Zhu, Trader-Lithium & Cobalt, Discovering Resource

Thomas Feng, Head of Nickel Industry Research, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd.

Shanshan Cao, Senior Analyst, COFCO Futures (International) Co., Ltd.