Futures market: LME copper opened at $8,630/mt overnight, initially dipped slightly to a low of $8,489.5/mt, then consolidated sideways during the session. Near the close, it surged sharply to a high of $8,974/mt, and finally settled at $8,897/mt, up 3.6%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, and open interest stood at 301,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 71,790 yuan/mt overnight, touched a low of 71,690 yuan/mt, then surged sharply to a high of 73,030 yuan/mt. It fluctuated rangebound throughout the session and consolidated sideways near the close, finally settling at 72,490 yuan/mt, down 0.01%. Trading volume reached 78,000 lots, and open interest stood at 153,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary] News: (1) CMOC released an announcement on its operating performance for January-March 2025 on the evening of April 8, 2025. The company seized favorable market opportunities and made every effort to stabilize and increase production. The production of its main products, copper, cobalt, and niobium, increased by 15.65%, 20.68%, and 4.39% YoY, respectively. Benefiting from the YoY increase in selling prices of all products, the company's main operating indicators exceeded expectations, achieving a good start to the year.
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On April 9, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2504 contract were at a premium of 60-130 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 95 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices were at 72,130-72,530 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper opened lower at 71,580 yuan/mt, driven by the decline in LME copper due to tariff news, but then rebounded above 72,100 yuan/mt, with highs repeatedly touching 72,440 yuan/mt. The price spread between futures contracts fluctuated between 130-180 yuan/mt, and some speculators actively sold spot cargo around a spread of 150 yuan/mt. The market sentiment was dominated by selling in the morning session. The import profit/loss of SHFE copper front-month contract showed a slight loss again, and the tight arrival of imported copper recently contributed little to domestic supply.
(2) Guangdong: On April 9, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a premium of 20-80 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous day. SX-EW copper was at a discount of 50-30 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 40 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 72,340 yuan/mt, down 1,145 yuan/mt from the previous day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 72,250 yuan/mt, down 1,145 yuan/mt from the previous day.
(3) Imported copper: On April 9, warrant prices were at $86-92/mt, QP April, with an average price up $2/mt from the previous day. B/L prices were at $100-110/mt, QP May, with an average price up $2/mt from the previous day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at $50-60/mt, QP May, with an average price up $5/mt from the previous day, referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late April. The import window opened wide in the morning session, and suppliers showed a stronger sentiment to stand firm on quotes compared to the previous day, with a significant divergence between buyers and sellers. Transactions were sporadic, but the price center was significantly higher than the previous two days.
(4) Secondary copper: On April 9, secondary copper raw material prices fell by 800 yuan/mt MoM. Guangdong bare bright copper prices were at 66,900-67,100 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 928 yuan/mt, down 524 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 575 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises sought selling opportunities during the day, but the market generally believed that copper prices still had downside room. Secondary copper rod enterprises gradually lowered their offers from 72,200-72,300 yuan/mt to 72,000 yuan/mt before achieving some transactions.
(5) Inventory: On April 9, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 1,525 mt to 211,925 mt. On April 9, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 11,375 mt to 97,393 mt.
Price: Macro-wise, the pace of global economic recovery remains uncertain recently, with mixed US economic data, and the market's expectations for the US Fed's monetary policy direction are complex. The "reciprocal" tariffs previously announced by Trump were originally scheduled to take effect at 00:01 EST on Wednesday, but were suspended less than 13 hours after taking effect. Trump stated that he had approved a 90-day suspension for relevant countries, which applies to reciprocal tariffs. During this period, general tariffs will be reduced to 10%, and the suspension took effect immediately. This move greatly alleviated market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions, leading to a surge in US stocks and a halt in the decline of copper prices. On the fundamental side, supply-wise, the import profit/loss of SHFE copper front-month contract showed a slight loss again, and the tight arrival of imported copper contributed little to domestic supply. Demand-wise, downstream buying was active, but due to low copper prices and tariff factors, downstream players had bearish expectations and were in no hurry to purchase raw materials, suppressing transaction prices. Price-wise, although macro headwinds eased last night and copper prices stopped falling, considering that the tight supply situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term and downstream players remain cautious on the demand side, copper prices are expected to maintain a rangebound trend today, with relatively limited upward momentum and downward pressure.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
