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This week (March 24-28), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions was $97.2 to $107.2/mt, QP April, with an average price of $102.2/mt, up $13.4/mt WoW. Warrant prices ranged from $70 to $78.8/mt, with an average of $74.4/mt, up $14.6/mt WoW, QP April. EQ copper CIF B/L prices ranged from $39 to $49/mt, with an average of $44/mt, up $15/mt WoW, QP April. As of March 28, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE 2504 contract was 8.20, with an import profit/loss of around -800 yuan/mt. As of Friday, the LME 3M-Apr copper price was C$23.69/mt; the spread between April and May dates was C$18.45/mt.
Currently, the spot price for high-quality ER copper warrants is $76/mt, mainstream ER copper is $73/mt, and SX-EW copper is $70/mt; high-quality copper B/L is $106/mt, mainstream ER copper is around $101/mt, and SX-EW copper is $96/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L prices range from $35 to $45/mt, with an average of $40/mt.
This week, the spot market tended to be quiet, with ongoing supply-side disruptions. At the beginning of the week, due to rumors of production cuts at the Altonorte and SPCC-ILO smelters, the prices for long-term B/L remained firm. As a result, some B/L originally destined for Southeast Asia from Japan and South Korea were diverted to China. Mid-week, concerns about the US imposing equivalent tariffs and the accelerated implementation of copper tariffs resurfaced, leading to sluggish B/L transactions. As domestically sourced goods canceled from LME warehouses continued to arrive, warrant prices also peaked and pulled back. In the short term, buyers' purchase willingness is low, and the upward momentum of Yangshan copper premiums has started to weaken after two consecutive months of climbing, with the market showing a strong wait-and-see sentiment. However, based on the 250,000-300,000 mt of copper cathode arrivals in the US from March to April, copper cathode supply in Asia is expected to remain tight entering Q2.
According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday (March 27), domestic bonded copper inventories increased by 5,800 mt WoW to 78,900 mt. Among them, Shanghai bonded inventories increased by 6,200 mt to 69,500 mt; Guangdong bonded inventories decreased by 400 mt to 9,400 mt. Bonded inventories continued to increase this week, putting pressure on the premium for bonded copper cathode. Warrant prices have shown a pullback trend, and as B/L canceled from LME Asian warehouses continue to arrive, both imports and exports have been active. Therefore, bonded inventories have shown strong liquidity. It is expected that bonded inventories will continue to increase next week.
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