SMM

When will the continually sluggish EVA market, characterized by slow transactions, growing price gaps, and high market uncertainty, stabilize?
SMM research found that the peak photovoltaic installation period in November and December didn't boost demand for PV-grade EVA produced by petrochemical plants. Instead, PV film manufacturers used this time to cut their raw material inventory, leading to high stockpiles of PV-grade EVA at petrochemical plants.
In November, PV module production was 47GW, with N-type modules at 37%. PV film shipments hit 440 million square meters, up 9.45% MoM. Rigid demand for PV-grade EVA was projected at 136,300 mt, but November's output was only 65,000 mt, down 26.55% MoM. SMM data shows October and November's PV-grade EVA production was 153,500 mt, but sales were just a third of this, nearly halving transactions. During these months, PV film factories reduced EVA inventory, while petrochemical factories' PV-grade EVA stockpiles grew, pressuring EVA prices.
In December, PV module production is projected to drop to 43GW, PV film orders to fall below 380 million square meters, and PV-grade EVA rigid demand to decrease to 124,700 mt, down 8.5% MoM. As EVA equipment maintenance concludes, December's PV-grade EVA supply is expected to rise MoM, further increasing petrochemical plants' inventory pressure.
Major PV film manufacturers have been conservative with their Q4 procurement strategies this year. After two drastic price swings, they've become more measured, showing "indifference" to short-term EVA price fluctuations due to uncertain Q1 market outlook. They neither buy in the rise nor sell in the fall. Conversely, smaller PV film manufacturers, while willing, are constrained by high raw material inventories and unstable orders. They're quietly waiting for a boost in PV demand.
From December to January, large-scale PV film factories are expected to have steady raw material replenishment needs. As the stockpiling cycle lengthens, the impact on PV-grade EVA prices will moderate. Fluctuations in December and January PV module production will also have less effect on PV-grade EVA prices. Hence, PV-grade EVA prices are predicted to stay low until next January.