SMM

Bijih Litium:

Pada awal minggu, harga bijih litium terus menurun perlahan seperti minggu lalu. Di sisi spodumen, penurunan signifikan harga berjangka dan spot karbonat litium telah menyebabkan penurunan berkelanjutan dalam tingkat harga yang dapat diterima untuk konsentrat litium di kalangan pemain permintaan, dengan penawaran dan harga transaksi terus menurun, mendorong harga pasar turun. Di sisi lepidolit, pembalikan biaya akibat penurunan berkelanjutan harga karbonat litium telah melemahkan semangat produksi dan pengolahan beban bagi pelebur dan pedagang, mengakibatkan penurunan bertahap dalam tingkat harga psikologis untuk konsentrat lepidolit.

Pada awal minggu, pusat harga transaksi spot karbonat litium menunjukkan tren penurunan signifikan. Karena pabrik bahan baku saat ini tidak memiliki harapan positif untuk jadwal produksi pesanan masa depan, keinginan mereka untuk menimbun sebelum liburan May Day lemah, mengakibatkan transaksi pasar terbatas. Meskipun pabrik kimia litium hulu masih mempertahankan sentimen untuk bertahan pada penawaran, dukungan harga jelas kurang cukup di bawah tekanan fundamental oversupply karbonat litium yang berkelanjutan. Sementara itu, dengan sirkulasi karbonat litium industri relatif ketat, selisih harga antara karbonat litium industri dan baterai juga menyempit. Secara keseluruhan, harga karbonat litium diperkirakan akan tetap menurun lemah dan fluktuatif dalam jangka pendek.

Pada awal minggu, harga hidroksida litium menunjukkan tren penurunan meningkat WoW. Dengan sentimen pasar relatif rendah dan pertumbuhan permintaan lambat, pabrik kimia litium, karena stok tinggi, telah meningkatkan keinginan untuk menjual dibandingkan periode sebelumnya, menyebabkan diskon transaksi spot antara hulu dan hilir menurun. Ditambah dengan tren penurunan berkelanjutan harga karbonat litium, harga hidroksida litium diperkirakan akan lebih lanjut menurun.

Minggu ini, harga kobalt refined berfluktuasi naik. Di sisi pasokan, inventaris sosial saat ini di pasar relatif tinggi, namun struktur inventaris sedikit bervariasi. Di sisi pasokan, keinginan pelebur untuk menjual tetap lemah, dan karena biaya bahan baku tinggi, beberapa pelebur telah mengurangi produksi. Di sisi permintaan, aktivitas pertanyaan produsen hilir telah meningkat, dan beberapa pabrik paduan telah mulai menimbun. Harga kobalt refined diperkirakan akan berfluktuasi naik minggu depan.

Minggu ini, harga produk antara kobalt spot tetap stabil. Di sisi pasokan, produsen hulu umumnya menunda penawaran spot untuk memastikan pasokan kepada pelanggan kontrak jangka panjang, dengan beberapa ekspektasi pengiriman kontrak jangka panjang diperpanjang, mengakibatkan sirkulasi pasar secara keseluruhan langka. Produsen hilir aktif bertanya, dan kekurangan bahan baku sedikit mencolok, namun penawaran spot tetap tinggi, mengakibatkan transaksi aktual produk antara kobalt relatif lemah. Harga produk antara kobalt spot diperkirakan akan berfluktuasi naik minggu depan.

Minggu ini, harga sulfat kobalt spot tetap stabil. Di sisi pasokan, pabrik garam utama terus mempertahankan strategi bertahan pada penawaran, dengan beberapa pabrik garam mengalami kekurangan bahan baku sedikit, mengakibatkan sentimen menahan penjualan. Di sisi permintaan, pemain hilir tetap hati-hati, dengan sentimen menunggu kuat, mengakibatkan transaksi pasar secara keseluruhan lemah. Minggu depan, sentimen menahan penjualan di antara pabrik garam diperkirakan akan lebih meningkat, dan harga sulfat kobalt spot mungkin berfluktuasi naik.

Pada awal minggu, harga klorida kobalt tetap sementara stabil. Di sisi pasokan, pelebur menghadapi inventaris bahan baku ketat, dengan sebagian besar produsen menolak menjual dengan harga rendah dan menunjukkan keinginan kuat untuk bertahan pada penawaran. Di sisi permintaan, meskipun aktivitas pasar secara keseluruhan tetap rendah, beberapa produsen, untuk memastikan operasi garis produksi stabil, masih mempertahankan permintaan pembelian tertentu untuk klorida kobalt, menjaga harga transaksi stabil pada level tinggi. Minggu ini, sentimen menahan penjualan di antara pemasok diperkirakan kuat, dan harga klorida kobalt mungkin akan lebih meningkat.

Pada awal minggu, harga tetraoksida kobalt tetap sementara stabil, dan aktivitas perdagangan pasar cenderung stabil. Di sisi pasokan, sebagian besar pelebur mempertahankan penawaran sebelumnya minggu ini tanpa penyesuaian harga signifikan. Di sisi permintaan, pasar menunjukkan tanda-tanda kelemahan. Karena banyak produsen telah menyelesaikan pembelian yang diperlukan di tahap awal, penerimaan pasar terhadap tetraoksida kobalt berharga tinggi telah menurun, dan aktivitas perdagangan telah melemah. Minggu ini, pasar diperkirakan akan terus mempertahankan tren lambat, dan harga tetraoksida kobalt mungkin menghadapi tekanan penurunan.

Pada 21 April, indeks harga sulfat nikel baterai SMM adalah 27.766 yuan/mt, dengan rentang penawaran sulfat nikel baterai 27.750-28.350 yuan/mt, dan harga rata-rata tetap stabil dibandingkan hari sebelumnya.
Di sisi biaya, harga LME nikel baru-baru ini menunjukkan rebound signifikan, didorong oleh dukungan biaya dan meredanya sentimen negatif dari kebijakan AS, memperkuat rentang dukungan biaya untuk produksi garam nikel. Dalam transmisi biaya, tekanan biaya produksi pabrik garam nikel terus meningkat. Di sisi pasokan, garam nikel yang tersedia untuk dijual oleh pabrik garam nikel bulan ini ketat, dengan tingkat inventaris industri secara keseluruhan rendah. Terpengaruh oleh operasi MHP koefisien dan harganya yang tinggi, sentimen pabrik garam nikel untuk bertahan pada penawaran tetap. Di sisi permintaan, sebagian besar pabrik prekursor telah menyelesaikan penimbunan bahan baku untuk April, dan dengan kedatangan siklus pembelian Mei, pertanyaan pasar menjadi aktif minggu ini. Penerimaan harga garam nikel oleh perusahaan hilir sedikit meningkat. Melihat ke depan, berdasarkan pasokan bahan baku ketat, dukungan biaya solid, dan permintaan hilir berkelanjutan, harga garam nikel diperkirakan akan menunjukkan tren kenaikan ringan dalam jangka pendek.

Pada Senin, harga seri 5 untuk elektronik konsumen, seri 6 untuk elektronik konsumen, dan seri 8 untuk produk NEV di pasar prekursor katoda ternary menunjukkan rebound kecil. Dalam hal biaya bahan baku, harga sulfat nikel dan sulfat mangan tetap stabil, sementara harga sulfat kobalt menunjukkan kenaikan kecil, mendorong harga berbagai seri produk prekursor rebound. Di sisi permintaan, permintaan pasar baru-baru ini umumnya biasa-biasa saja. Meskipun kebijakan kenaikan tarif AS belum memiliki dampak signifikan pada pasar prekursor domestik, pasar bahan katoda ternary kekurangan penggerak permintaan baru, dan pasar terus mengeksekusi jadwal produksi dan pesanan sesuai rencana, dengan permintaan secara keseluruhan pada April diperkirakan serupa dengan Maret. Dalam hal model produk, permintaan produk nikel menengah relatif baik bulan ini, dan pangsa pasar prekursor katoda ternary seri 6 diperkirakan akan meningkat. Di sisi pasokan, karena produk prekursor telah lama berada dalam keadaan pembalikan biaya, perusahaan memiliki keinginan kuat untuk bertahan pada penawaran, dan harga transaksi tetap relatif kuat. Terpengaruh oleh fluktuasi pasar signifikan tahun ini, produsen prekursor NEV umumnya tidak lagi menandatangani pesanan jangka panjang (misalnya, satu tahun atau setengah tahun), melainkan mengadopsi diskon yang dinegosiasikan bulanan. Sementara itu, produsen umumnya menggunakan model bernegosiasi dan menyelesaikan koefisien diskon secara terpisah untuk sulfat nikel, sulfat kobalt, dan sulfat mangan. Untuk pasar prekursor konsumen, transaksi spot masih mendominasi. Minggu ini, harga sulfat diperkirakan akan rebound kecil, dan harga prekursor diperkirakan akan naik sedikit seiring kenaikan harga bahan baku.

Pada Senin, harga bahan katoda ternary menunjukkan penurunan kecil. Dalam hal bahan baku, harga sulfat nikel dan sulfat mangan tetap stabil, sementara harga sulfat kobalt menunjukkan kenaikan kecil, namun tidak cukup untuk mengimbangi tekanan penurunan harga bahan katoda ternary akibat penurunan harga garam litium. Pasokan pasar saat ini sebagian besar bergantung pada kontrak jangka panjang yang ditandatangani sebelumnya, dengan beberapa perusahaan telah menaikkan koefisien diskon terkait; untuk transaksi spot, produsen umumnya mengadopsi metode bernegosiasi diskon terpisah untuk bahan baku seperti sulfat nikel dan sulfat kobalt untuk penyelesaian. Dalam hal eksekusi produksi dan pesanan, karena proporsi ekspor langsung bahan katoda ternary NEV besar dan produk sel baterai ternary hilir ke AS rendah, pasar umumnya percaya bahwa kebijakan kenaikan tarif AS baru-baru ini akan memiliki dampak terbatas pada permintaan secara keseluruhan dalam jangka pendek. Eksekusi pesanan dan jadwal produksi saat ini berlangsung sesuai rencana, dengan permintaan Q2 diperkirakan akan rebound dibandingkan Q1. Untuk bahan katoda ternary NEV kecil dan konsumen, karena produk akhir mereka memiliki proporsi ekspor tinggi ke AS, permintaan berikutnya mungkin menghadapi risiko penurunan tertentu. Mengingat Jepang, Korea Selatan, dan Eropa adalah pasar ekspor utama untuk bahan katoda ternary domestik dan produk sel baterai hilir, pasar saat ini memperhatikan apakah kebijakan tarif antara China dan Eropa, Jepang, dan Korea Selatan akan disesuaikan mengingat perubahan situasi internasional. Dalam hal struktur produk, permintaan bahan katoda ternary nikel menengah telah meningkat bulan ini, dan pangsa pasar bahan katoda ternary seri 6 diperkirakan akan lebih luas. Dalam hal harga, harga bahan katoda ternary diperkirakan akan menunjukkan fluktuasi kecil minggu ini seiring volatilitas harga bahan baku.

Minggu ini, harga LFP secara keseluruhan tidak mengalami perubahan signifikan, karena di sisi bahan baku, harga karbonat litium tetap stabil minggu ini; di sisi lain, biaya proses juga tidak mengalami perubahan signifikan minggu ini. Market-wise: On the supply side, material plants maintained stable production this week, with operating rates similar to March, and recent market exchanges revealed no significant increase in demand expectations for April and May. On the demand side, downstream battery cell plant demand remained stable, with a slight increase compared to March, but the increase was small. In terms of price settlement, starting from April, material plants will renegotiate processing fees with battery cell plants for Q2.

Iron Phosphate:

Recently, the iron phosphate market has shown a relatively stable trend. However, after entering April, some downstream LFP production orders were adjusted downward, leading to unmet demand expectations for upstream iron phosphate and industrial-grade MAP. Meanwhile, upstream phosphorus resource prices remained stable, while ferrous sulphate prices showed some degree of loosening. Nevertheless, April to May remains a critical period for Q2 volume. During this period, market competition may further intensify, and the possibility of price wars increasing cannot be ruled out.

LCO:

This week, LFP prices showed no significant changes overall, as on the raw material side, lithium carbonate prices remained basically stable this week; on the other hand, processing fees also showed no significant changes this week. Market-wise: On the supply side, material plants maintained stable production this week, with operating rates similar to March, and recent market exchanges revealed no significant increase in demand expectations for April and May. On the demand side, downstream battery cell plant demand remained stable, with a slight increase compared to March, but the increase was small. In terms of price settlement, starting from April, material plants will renegotiate processing fees with battery cell plants for Q2.

Anode:

This week, artificial graphite prices remained stable. On the supply and demand side, downstream battery cell plant production schedules showed no significant improvement WoW, so the overall operating rate of the anode market also remained basically flat WoW; on the cost side, graphitisation tolling service prices were relatively rigid, and coke prices showed a fluctuating trend, resulting in relatively stable anode costs this week. However, as most raw materials used for artificial graphite anodes were purchased during previous high-price periods, artificial graphite anode prices remained firm this week. Looking ahead, affected by tariff policies, downstream battery cell demand for artificial graphite anode materials is expected to show a shrinking trend, while costs may also rise due to tariff impacts. Under the interaction of supply-demand relationships and costs, artificial graphite prices are expected to remain relatively stable.
This week, the price of natural graphite anode material remained stable. On the supply and demand side, there was no significant fluctuation WoW. Cost side, the price of upstream raw materials declined this week. However, due to the lag in production, the price of natural graphite remains relatively stable. Looking ahead, downstream demand may decline under the impact of tariffs, and the processing of natural graphite anode material is expected to decrease slightly. Separator: This week, the price of lithium battery separator materials remained stable. The mainstream quotations for wet-process separators (5um/7um/9um) were 1.59 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.75 yuan, respectively. The mainstream quotations for dry-process separators (12um/16um) were 0.46 yuan and 0.43 yuan. Supply side, with the completion of the resumption of work and production in the industry chain in March, the capacity utilization rate has recovered, and production scheduling in April is expected to increase slightly. Demand side, the downstream demand for NEV and ESS continues to grow, which will promote the procurement of separators by battery cell manufacturers. In terms of price, as the previous separator price has been close to the cost line, the price of wet-process separators is expected to remain stable in the near term, while the price of dry-process separators has an upward trend. Electrolyte: This week, the price of electrolyte remained stable. Cost side, the prices of core raw materials such as LiPF6, solvents, and additives declined, leading to an overall reduction in the manufacturing cost of electrolyte. Demand side, the recovery of downstream new energy battery market demand lags behind expectations, and end-users maintain a cautious stockpiling strategy. The current procurement demand for electrolyte shows a phased stabilization feature. Supply side, major producers continue to adopt the "produce based on sales" model and conservative production scheduling strategies, while the operating rate of small and medium-sized producers remains low. Comprehensive analysis suggests that the market price of electrolyte will be constrained by the unchanged supply and demand fundamentals in the short term, and is expected to maintain a narrow range-bound fluctuation. Sodium-ion battery: This week, the sodium-ion battery market developed steadily. Huayang Group's sodium-ion battery ESS project accelerated, Chuanyi upgraded its sodium-ion battery products and achieved mass production, and the application of sodium-ion batteries in ESS and logistics fields accelerated. CATL successfully developed the second-generation sodium-ion battery, which can discharge at -40°C and is expected to be launched in 2025. With technological advancements and capacity expansion, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is expected to further decrease, and the future prospects in stationary ESS and other fields are broad. Recycling: Supply side, the prices of lithium chemicals, nickel salts, and cobalt salts fluctuated this week. However, the psychological selling price of grinding mills and traders remained unchanged. This week, the coefficients of ternary and LCO black mass and the lithium point of LFP remained stable. Taking ternary pole piece black mass as an example, the current coefficient is around 75-78%, with an average coefficient of 76.5%. Due to policy changes such as overseas tariff hikes and the short-term supply and demand impact of slight inventory buildup of lithium chemicals, the price of lithium chemicals continued to decline on Monday, and most wet-process plants stopped purchasing or lowered quotations. Cost side, the prices of nickel, cobalt, and lithium chemicals fluctuated this week, but overall showed a slight decline, so the profit margins of ternary and LCO scrap markets remain below the surplus line. Currently, most wet-process enterprises still report being in an inverted situation. Downstream and end-users: This week, the price of DC-side battery cabins fluctuated slightly. The average price of 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.43 yuan/Wh, and the average price of 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.438 yuan/Wh. The US continues to impose tariff sanctions on China, but recently ESS projects have been scheduled on demand, and the price of DC-side battery cabins remains stable. On April 14, the winning bid result for the EPC general contracting project of the Yecheng 200MW/800MWh grid-forming ESS power station in Xinjiang Kashi Yecheng region was announced. The bid winner quoted 861.52 million yuan, with a unit price of 1.077 yuan/Wh after conversion. Order to view SMM new energy product spot historical prices. Click to view SMM new energy industry chain database. News: [Dazhong Mining: The Jiada lithium mine in Sichuan will achieve a certain scale of by-product raw ore sales in 2025] Dazhong Mining stated at the 2024 performance meeting held today that the company has anchored the business goal of increasing reserves and production this year, and will focus on promoting the expansion and technological transformation of the two mines of Jinrisheng Mining. At the same time, the company is fully promoting the infrastructure work of the Jizhushan lithium mine in Hunan and will focus on handling the transition of the first mining area of the Jiada lithium mine in Sichuan. In 2025, a certain scale of by-product raw ore sales will be achieved. In terms of capital expenditure planning, the construction of the Jizhushan lithium mine in Hunan, the construction of the Jiada lithium mine in Sichuan, and the technological transformation and expansion projects of the Zhouyoufang iron mine, Chongxinji iron mine, and Guyang Hejiao iron mine will become the core areas of capital investment. [CATL launches the second-generation Shenxing ultra-fast charging battery, with a range of over 520 km after 5 minutes of charging] CATL released the second-generation Shenxing ultra-fast charging battery. According to reports, this LFP battery has a range of 800 km, a peak charge rate of nearly 12C, and a peak charging power of over 1.3 MW, achieving "5 minutes of charging, over 520 km of range." [Cui Dongshu: Automobile exports will reach a super high level in 2025, and lithium-ion battery exports will basically maintain a monthly stable level of 5 billion US dollars] Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Association, stated in an article on his personal official account that data shows that China's import and export scale in 2025 will be stable with growth, and the development quality will be optimized with improvement. The export growth rate has slowed down compared to previous years. Among them, automobile exports in 2025 reached a super high level, and auto parts also hit a record high, both achieving super strong growth, with motorcycle exports showing strong growth. This year, lithium-ion battery exports basically maintained a monthly stable level of 5 billion US dollars, compared to the continuous upward trend last year. SMM New Energy Research Team Cong Wang 021-51666838 Rui Ma 021-51595780 Ziya Lin 86-2151666902 Disheng Feng 021-51666714 Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875 Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711 Zihan Wang 021-51666914 Jie Wang 021-51595902 He Zhang 021-20707850 Haohan Zhang 021-51666752 Yang Xu 021-51666760 Bolin Chen 021-51666836 Mengqi Xu 021-20707868