December 19 news:
Northern ports: South African high-iron 30-30.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate 34-34.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabon 41.9-43.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps 41-41.7 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron 36.4-37.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW.
Southern ports: South African high-iron 30.3-30.8 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate 35.7-36.4 yuan/mtu, down 2.17% WoW; Gabon 41.1-42 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Australian lumps 41.5-42.2 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron 37.1-37.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW.
This week, domestic manganese ore market offers generally operated steadily, with a tug-of-war between cost support on the supply side and regional divergence on the demand side, inventory structure showing port differences, short-term price firmness is clear, while long-term needs to monitor downstream demand absorption capacity.
Supply side, overseas manganese mines' offers to China for January 2026 were all raised MoM from December 2025, strengthening cost support for domestic imported manganese ore forward prices, leaving little room for manganese ore price pullback. Specifically, recent port arrivals of South African medium-iron manganese ore remained relatively low, market circulation supply was tight, there were basically no substantial transactions this week, traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and prices remained stable; offers for other mainstream ore types also showed no loosening, traders' willingness to sell at low prices was weak, overall the supply side provided strong support for prices.
Demand side, inquiry activity in the north and south China markets faded WoW this week, but the north and south markets still showed divergence. In the northern market, driven by bullish sentiment in the manganese ore market and expectations of production start-ups in the Inner Mongolia SiMn production hub later, SiMn plants were relatively positive in purchasing manganese ore, providing effective support for manganese ore demand; the SiMn industry remained in the off-season, some enterprises continued production cuts, the current number of operating enterprises was limited, alloy plants mostly adopted a "purchase as needed" strategy, demand side was relatively mediocre.
Inventory level, Tianjin Port inventories were at a medium level, inventory pressure was moderate, providing some support for firm manganese ore prices; Qinzhou Port, affected by a slowdown in port cargo pick-up, saw continuous inventory accumulation, current inventory levels were relatively high, somewhat suppressing manganese ore transaction prices.
Overall, cost increases from raised overseas offers on the supply side and traders' willingness to hold prices firm are the core supports keeping current manganese ore prices firm; although inquiry activity on the demand side has cooled and demand in the southern market is mediocre, demand support from the northern market and the buffering effect of purchasing as needed in the south can still offset some downward pressure. In the short term, the demand absorption capacity of downstream alloy plants remains a key variable. While the possibility of sustained weak demand triggering negative price feedback cannot be ruled out, the manganese ore market is expected to maintain an overall firm operating trend this month.
