SMM December 19:
Spot supply of secondary refined lead remained scarce, with suppliers generally showing low willingness to sell. Only a few suppliers sold off goods during the week due to fears of price declines. This week, the mainstream ex-factory price for spot secondary refined lead, inclusive of tax, was at a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. A small volume of low-priced spot cargo in east China transacted at a discount of around 30 yuan/mt on a delivered basis. Although downstream battery producers restocked at lower prices, the overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. Although secondary lead production is expected to increase next week, SMM expects no signs of widening discounts for secondary refined lead quotations, due to tight spot supply of refined lead coupled with persistent downstream stockpiling demand ahead of the New Year's Day holiday.
During the week, procurement offers from secondary lead smelters for waste lead-acid batteries only saw a slight decline, while the price center of lead fell below 17,000 yuan, leading to a significant drop in profits for secondary lead smelters, with some enterprises falling into losses. As of December 19, 2025, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was 62 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises it was -144 yuan/mt (by-product revenue in the model excludes tin and antimony). Currently, waste lead-acid battery recyclers are holding onto goods in anticipation of price increases, keeping cost pressure high for secondary lead smelters. If purchase willingness from downstream battery producers fails to significantly boost lead prices before the New Year's Day holiday, profit margins for secondary lead smelting enterprises will be difficult to restore.
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