December 15, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:
Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2601) pulled back after a slight rise during the night session, falling below the 330,000 yuan mark to close at 329,400 yuan/mt, down 0.3% from the previous trading day.
Macro: (1) According to a December 13 report by China Times News Network, US Commerce Secretary Luttig stated in an interview with US media on the 11th that the Trump administration is expected to push TSMC to invest over $200 billion in building a plant in the US, potentially creating 30,000 jobs. TSMC responded that relevant information should be based on official announcements and declined to comment. (2) Data released on the 14th by South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT showed that the country's ICT product export value in November surged 24.3% YoY to $25.45 billion, setting a new monthly record. This marks the 10th consecutive month of YoY growth in ICT exports, attributed to factors such as a booming semiconductor industry and a clear recovery in ICT equipment demand. By item, export value increased YoY for semiconductors (38.6%), mobile phones (3.5%), communication equipment (3.3%), and computers and peripheral equipment (1.9%), while displays decreased 3.7% YoY. Specifically, semiconductor export value jumped 38.6% YoY to $17.27 billion, hitting a new monthly high and boosting overall ICT exports. This is the fourth time this year, after June, August, and September, that semiconductor exports have set a new monthly record. (3) According to Southern Plus, the "AIR Pearl River Index Report (2025)" released at the opening of the 2025 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area AI and Robotics Industry Conference on December 13 indicated that Guangdong province leads the nation in four core indicators of its AI and robotics industry: enterprise strength, development potential, industry application, and industry chain linkage. The report places Guangdong's AI and robotics industry in the top tier alongside Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, with its comprehensive ranking firmly holding the national top spot. Leading all four core metrics underscores its role as the country's core engine for the intelligent industry.
Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations are driving some tin consumption, their current contribution remains too small to offset the decline in traditional sectors.
Spot Market: Last week, SHFE tin futures fluctuated at highs, while spot tin ingot trading was sluggish amid elevated prices, leaving buyers and sellers in a stalemate. Early in the week, SHFE tin extended its prior strength. The market focused on the US Fed’s December meeting and expected an interest rate cut. The week’s climax came on 12 December, when SHFE tin surged on multiple tailwinds including the Fed’s rate cut and a weaker US dollar. The most-traded contract briefly jumped 6% intraday, touching 338,800 yuan/mt before closing up more than 4%, decisively breaking the 330,000 yuan/mt resistance. Overall, after a brief early-week consolidation, tin prices rallied sharply into the weekend on combined macro and supply-side positives, underscoring strong momentum. In contrast to the futures swings, the spot market was more sluggish. High prices significantly curbed downstream purchase willingness, and spot trading was mediocre. Smelters held offers pending sale due to costs, while downstream enterprises turned cautious, suppressing actual buying; trade consisted mainly of small, rigid-demand lots, leaving overall turnover cold. Domestic social inventory of tin ingot increased noticeably, reflecting weak demand and capping further upside room for prices.
[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are derived by SMM from public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database model for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct recommendations for investment or research decisions; clients should exercise caution and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decision made by a client is not related to Shanghai Metals Market.]
