SMM December 12 news:
Guangdong region: WoW, spot premiums in the region showed a volatile upward trend. Copper prices bottomed out and inventory continued to decline, coupled with suppliers actively holding prices firm for next week's long-term contract negotiations, leading to higher premiums this week. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 0 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt WoW. Recent weakening demand for high-quality copper led to a larger price drop, narrowing the price spread with standard-quality copper. On Thursday, the premium/discount spread for standard-quality copper between Shanghai and Guangdong was 90 yuan/mt higher in Guangdong, a relatively small difference that leaves no room for interregional arbitrage. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 14,800 mt, an increase of 1,400 mt WoW, with warrants totaling 5,300 mt, up 977 mt WoW. Specifically: weekly warehouse arrivals were 13,000 mt/week, up 3,000 mt/week WoW, slightly below the annual average (14,000 mt/week); arrivals of imported copper increased slightly. Weekly warehouse withdrawals were 11,700 mt/week, up 1,500 mt/week WoW, below the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Early in the week, copper prices pulled back significantly, stimulating downstream users to increase procurement volume.
Looking ahead to next week, arrivals of both domestic and imported copper are not expected to increase significantly, while downstream consumption is also not expected to improve noticeably under the constraint of high copper prices. Therefore, we believe next week will see weak supply and demand, with weekly inventory expected to increase slightly. However, as it coincides with the long-term contract negotiation period, smelters are expected to maintain high premium quotes, and spot premiums are likely to remain high.
(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)
