Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,001.5/mt, and fluctuated downward throughout the day after opening. During the Asian session, LME lead fell below $2,000/mt, then gradually moved to $1,990/mt and $1,980/mt. Particularly as the US dollar index strengthened, LME lead declined further, hitting a session low of $1,975/mt, and finally closed at $1,976.5/mt, down 1.1%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened lower at 17,125 yuan/mt. Dragged down by the decline in LME lead and a drop in trading activity in the domestic spot market, SHFE lead's losses widened after opening, with the session low reaching 17,015 yuan/mt, nearly breaching the 17,000 yuan/mt mark. It finally closed at 17,025 yuan/mt, down 1.22%. Its open interest stood at 40,479 lots, a decrease of 141 lots from the previous trading day.
On the macro front:
US ADP employment data recovered, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The US Fed focused on the employment indicator; October JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose to a five-month high, but hiring decreased and layoffs hit a more than two-year high. Bank of Japan Governor: Interest rates will be raised if the economic outlook is achieved, and bond purchases will be increased under special circumstances. The bank is gradually approaching the sustained inflation target, hinting at future rate hikes "more than once." Additionally, US Trump: Interest rate cuts are the litmus test for the new Fed Chairman, and prices of some goods may be reduced by adjusting tariffs. This was Trump's first clear statement suggesting a possible expansion of tariff relief.
:
In the lead spot market yesterday, the center of SHFE lead's operation shifted lower. Suppliers sold goods following the market trend. Furthermore, as spot cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were relatively scarce, some were quoted at premiums. Additionally, quotations for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from the production site varied. Quotations from mainstream producing areas against the SMM #1 lead average price ranged from discounts of 40 yuan/mt to premiums of 100 yuan/mt. Downstream enterprises exhibited a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with some intending to buy the dip as needed, though actual procurement remained relatively cautious.
Inventory: As of December 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900 mt to 236,925 mt; SHFE lead warrant inventory was 15,631 mt, an increase of 100 mt from the previous trading day.
Today's lead price forecast:
Recently, domestic and overseas lead futures pulled back significantly, nearly erasing all gains from the previous week. However, fundamentals showed no major changes. Current domestic social inventory of lead ingots is at a 15-month low, while LME lead inventory fell to around 230,000 mt. Maintenance at primary lead delivery brands in the domestic supply side persists. Although some lead smelters experienced inventory buildup due to decreased procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises, the overall inventory base remains relatively small. Subsequent attention will be on the cost support conditions in the secondary lead sector following the decline in lead prices.
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.
