SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes November 17, 2025
Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets overall showed a fluctuating trend at highs. Driven by both tight supply and recovering macro sentiment, the most-traded SHFE tin contract once hit a new stage high, reaching a peak of 298,500 yuan/mt. Macro perspective, the potential end of the US government shutdown crisis and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts boosted market risk appetite, but concerns over US-China trade policies and a global economic growth slowdown still constrained upside room. On the supply and demand fundamentals, supply disruptions persisted, with tin ore supply tightening in major producing areas like Yunnan; Indonesia's refined tin exports in October fell significantly by 53.89% YoY, exacerbating market concerns about global supply tightness. Demand side, performance was divergent: demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets remained sluggish, orders decreased noticeably, downstream purchasing was relatively cautious, and high prices suppressed actual consumption. Although emerging sectors such as AI computing power increases and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, the scale of contribution was still small, insufficient to offset the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors. The spot market saw overall sluggish trading last week, with downstream enterprises mostly adopting a strategy of purchasing as needed and placing small, quick-turnaround orders. The SHFE tin price is expected to hover at highs in the short term, and investors need to closely monitor the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, substantive outcomes from US-China trade negotiations, and further guidance on the US Fed's policy path.
