SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, November 3, 2025
Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets overall showed a fluctuating trend at highs, mainly influenced by the tight supply-demand balance and macro sentiment. Supply side, tin ore supply in major producing areas such as Yunnan tightened, and some smelters completed maintenance and resumed production, but overall supply remained tight, supporting prices. Demand side, performance was divergent; demand in consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, orders decreased significantly, downstream procurement was cautious, and high prices suppressed actual consumption. Although emerging sectors such as AI computing power upgrades and PV installations growth drove some tin consumption, the contribution scale remained small, insufficient to offset the gap from declining consumption in traditional sectors. The spot market saw overall sluggish transactions last week; some downstream and end-users conducted small restocking after the tin price temporarily fell below the 280,000 yuan mark, but overall restocking enthusiasm was low. Macro perspective, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Powell stated that another rate cut in December is "not a done deal." This hawkish stance dampened market expectations for consecutive rate cuts, leading to a stronger US dollar index, which pressured US dollar-denominated tin prices. SHFE tin prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term, with resistance noted at the 287,000-288,000 yuan/mt range and support at the 283,000-284,000 yuan/mt zone. Investors should closely monitor the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, substantive outcomes from US-China trade talks, and further guidance on the US Fed's policy path.
