During the midday session on October 20, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) remained in the doldrums. It opened at 278,500 yuan/mt, down 2,880 points, and then maintained a consolidation pattern at lower levels, closing around 280,150 yuan/mt at noon, down about 0.44% from the previous day's settlement price. In the overseas market, the LME tin futures contract closed at $35,030/mt in the previous trading session, down $695, with a decline of 1.95%. Today, LME tin opened at $35,195/mt, slightly higher than yesterday's close of $34,972, but was still constrained by pressure from the macro front.
Macro perspective, the strong US dollar and valuation pressures suppressed investor risk appetite, while the ongoing US government shutdown transmitted liquidity tightening effects to global commodity markets through monetary channels. With the suspension of bond issuance by the Treasury, the creation of base money nearly came to a halt, making the US dollar "scarce" in a high-interest-rate environment, which dominated the market pricing logic. The Sino-US rivalry continued, and market sentiment was cautious ahead of the APEC talks in early November. Investors needed to closely monitor the US inflation data on October 24, the Fed meeting statement on the 27th, and corporate earnings guidance for the third quarter.
In the short term, the tin market was caught in a tug-of-war between "insufficient supply elasticity" and "disrupted demand relay." It was expected that SHFE tin would remain in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract operating within a range of 279,000-280,000 yuan/mt. The market should be wary of amplified price fluctuations due to macro sentiment volatility, especially under the current tight balance of supply and demand, where any unexpected changes in macro data or policy signals could trigger sharp price movements.
