SMM September 17, SS futures continued to trade in the doldrums. Driven by the broad weakness in metal futures, SS futures followed the downtrend, trading below 13,000 yuan/mt throughout the day and even briefly falling below 12,900 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the weakness in SS futures further intensified cautious wait-and-see sentiment among downstream end-users of stainless steel. Although traders offered discounts under shipment pressure, inquiries and transactions remained sluggish during the day.
Futures side, the most-traded contract 2511 declined. At 10:30 a.m., SS2510 was quoted at 12,910 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 360-660 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,150 yuan/mt; the average price of cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil was 13,250 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 25,750 yuan/mt in Wuxi and Foshan; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was quoted at 25,150 yuan/mt in both locations; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.
Although the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season of "September-October peak season", and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are gradually approaching, providing room for domestic moderately accommodative monetary policies, market expectations for stainless steel prices this month are generally strong. Currently, stainless steel social inventory has declined for the ninth consecutive week, with inventory levels near 900,000 mt, pulling back to early-year levels, easing market destocking pressure. Stainless steel furnace charge prices for nickel and chromium raw materials remain strong, and cost support for stainless steel remains solid. However, macro tailwinds have yet to materialize, uncertainty risks persist, and the market maintains a heavy cautious wait-and-see sentiment. Recently, SS futures have also shown insufficient upward momentum, with pressure remaining above the 13,000 yuan/mt level that previously constrained stainless steel futures, and downstream end-users in the spot market have low acceptance of high-priced supplies, making it difficult for stainless steel spot prices to rise. The subsequent trend will depend on the pace of demand recovery and the actual realization of macro tailwinds.
