[Tin Market Daily Review, July 30, 2025]
As of July 30, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,870 yuan/mt, up 0.19% from the previous day, with intraday volatility narrowing to 1.2% as shrinking turnover indicated cautious sentiment from both bulls and bears. The LME tin contract settled at $33,645/mt, gaining 0.07%.
Weakness in the electronics industry chain: End-users in South China entered the off-season, with operating rates at solder plants dropping to low levels. Tin bar orders declined after the PV installation rush, prompting downstream players to maintain just-in-time procurement.
Macro sentiment remained volatile as the US Fed's rate decision became the focal point. China-US tariff delay boosted sentiment: Both sides agreed to postpone the 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days, while the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast to 4.8%, lifting short-term risk appetite. Dollar weighed on metals: The US dollar index surged to 99 ahead of the US Fed's July policy meeting, capping LME tin prices despite growing market bets on a September interest rate cut amid internal divisions.
Thick wait-and-see sentiment prevailed: Open interest for the most-traded SHFE tin contract fell to 54,000 lots, with night session volatility narrowing to 0.26%, reflecting market anticipation for the Fed's decision.
The core trading range is projected at 265,000-270,000 yuan/mt. Upside resistance stems from the consumer electronics off-season and inventory buildup, while downside support comes from ore supply tightness and AI-driven demand growth. A clear Fed rate-cut roadmap could push SHFE tin toward the 275,000 yuan/mt resistance; conversely, accelerated production resumptions in Myanmar may drive prices down to test the 260,000 yuan/mt threshold.
