Lithium Ore:
At the beginning of this week, lithium ore prices were basically stable WoW, mainly due to the current sideways movement in lithium carbonate prices.On the supply side, overseas mines continued to refuse to budge on prices. Suppliers took the opportunity to raise prices when lithium carbonate prices increased earlier, leading to an overall rise in market quotations; On the demand side, the current lithium chemical prices provided hedging space for traders and lithium chemical plants, with their psychological acceptance price levels rising, and the lower end of the market price range rebounding. While lithium chemicals and lithium ore prices are fluctuating rangebound, the activity in the lithium ore market is better than before, but the wait-and-see sentiment among buyers has intensified, making it difficult for lithium ore prices to decline in the short term.
Lithium Carbonate:
At the beginning of this week, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to fluctuate upward.Affected by improved demand expectations for July and other market rumors, spot prices stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. At the same time, strong support from some rigid demand pushed the price center higher. However, from the supply side, the output of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the market's supply surplus continues, with industry inventory pressure still present. Subsequently, close attention needs to be paid to the actual recovery of demand in July.
Lithium Hydroxide:
At the beginning of this week, the decline in lithium hydroxide prices slowed down WoW.In terms of production, most enterprises produce based on sales, following normal production schedules; In terms of market sentiment, downstream players continue to drive down prices; however, on the upstream side, the recent recovery in lithium carbonate and lithium ore prices has strengthened cost support, and there is a strong reluctance to budge on prices during transactions, slowing the pace of the decline in lithium hydroxide prices. It is expected that the downside room for lithium hydroxide prices will be relatively limited in the short term.
Refined Cobalt:
On Monday, refined cobalt prices dropped slightly.On the supply side, refined cobalt smelters maintained long-term contract supplies, with few spot orders and unchanged ex-factory prices. The ZLJ futures market was affected by a "pig slaughter" rumor over the weekend, causing prices to fall, and traders followed suit. On the demand side, as the social inventory of refined cobalt remains high and downstream demand has not seen significant improvement, most downstream producers maintain just-in-time procurement, resulting in mediocre actual transactions. It is expected that refined cobalt prices will continue to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
Intermediate Products:
On Monday, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products continued to maintain an upward trend, with some companies reporting transactions around 12.1-12.2.On the supply side, most companies, maintaining a bullish outlook, have suspended quotes, while a few quoting companies have further raised their prices. On the demand side, smelters face challenges such as production losses and weak downstream demand. Under unclear future conditions, most companies focus on consuming their own inventories, and some smelters with low inventories are inquiring about low-priced goods. Overall, influenced by the DRC's policy extension, China's cobalt intermediate products will likely face raw material shortages, providing upward momentum for prices. However, the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be monitored.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
On Monday, cobalt sulphate prices rose slightly, with actual transactions reported around 4.9-5.1, and a small number of large factories transacted around 5.2.On the supply side, companies maintain a bullish sentiment, with smelters and traders raising new quotes. On the demand side, downstream ternary orders have not seen significant improvement, and the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, focusing on digesting previous inventories. Ternary cobalt companies, currently enjoying better prices, are making some purchases; however, refined cobalt, due to its poor economics, has paused procurement. Overall, under the current uncertain situation, there is still a price discrepancy between buyers and sellers, with the upstream insisting on holding prices and the downstream showing weak purchase willingness. Actual transactions remain limited, and it is expected that cobalt sulphate prices may continue to fluctuate upward this week.
Current cobalt chloride prices are 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with a sluggish market and only a few transactions. On the supply side, smelters are still cautious, with few transactions. On the demand side, downstream inventories are relatively sufficient, and the market is actively inquiring, but remains cautious about transactions. In terms of prices, although smelters quote high, the actual transaction price is still around 61,000, with 62,000 being rare. It is expected that cobalt chloride prices will remain stable within the 61,000-62,000 price range in the short term.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
Current Co3O4 prices are between 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt, with both upstream and downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and few actual transactions, mostly long-term contracts.On the supply side, Co3O4 plants are observing the overall market sentiment and demand, with only a small amount of shipments. On the demand side, LCO cathode plants have relatively low inventories, but the overall market is heavily influenced by sentiment, leading to a wait-and-see approach. In terms of prices, Co3O4 plants expect to sell at 210,000-220,000 yuan/mt, but high-priced Co3O4 transactions are still rare. In the long term, Co3O4 prices are still influenced by cobalt inventories, and whether the current industry inventory can support until December is key to the price trend.
Nickel Sulphate:
On July 7, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,202 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 27,200-27,620 yuan/mt, and the average price was basically flat compared to last week.Cost side, as the US global tariff deadline approaches, the risk aversion sentiment caused by tariff uncertainty has hindered the rebound in nickel prices, and LME nickel prices have pulled back. Overall, the immediate cost of nickel salts may decrease. Supply side, some salt plants, due to the recent increase in raw material costs, have intentions to raise prices, but weak buyer demand has led to fewer transactions, with overall inventory and production schedules remaining low. Demand side, precursor plants' purchasing enthusiasm remains weak, and after completing stockpiling at the end of last month, they are mainly in a wait-and-see mode. Looking ahead, with production costs declining and weak downstream demand, although nickel salt plants continue to hold prices, nickel salt prices may still stabilize at a low level.
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
On Monday, ternary cathode precursor prices increased.In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained relatively stable, while cobalt sulphate prices rose, driving up the absolute price of precursors. The current discount coefficient for spot orders has not changed significantly. Overall demand in the ternary market remains mediocre, lacking solid support for price increases. Downstream battery cell manufacturers still control the discount coefficient, showing a weak response to the rise in cobalt sulphate prices, and the overall discount strategy remains stable, with long-term contract discounts expected to remain unchanged in the short term. In terms of demand, domestic NEV market demand for 6-series products has shown some improvement, and overseas demand for 8-series products has also increased slightly, but overall orders are concentrated among top-tier enterprises. The consumer market remains sluggish. On the supply side, as the market enters the restocking phase in July, overall production schedules are expected to recover somewhat.
Ternary Cathode Material:
On Monday, 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode material prices increased.In terms of raw materials, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices were basically flat, while cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate saw larger increases, and the decline in lithium hydroxide slowed. Due to weak market demand and the continued dominance of battery cell manufacturers in pricing negotiations, there is limited room for a significant increase in ternary cathode material prices. Downstream battery cell manufacturers showed a lukewarm response to the rise in cobalt sulphate prices, and the discount coefficient is expected to remain stable. In terms of demand, some new car models in the NEV market have driven moderate stockpiling, with orders concentrated among top-tier battery cell manufacturers. Overseas battery cell manufacturers have seen some order shifts, affecting orders for cathode materials. The consumer market is in a traditional off-season, with recent orders performing generally. On the supply side, as the market enters the restocking phase in July, the overall production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase slightly.
LFP:
This week, LFP prices continued to rise, increasing by about 2,100 yuan/mt, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of about 9,500 yuan/mt.Market-wise, overall production at material plants was stable this week, with top-tier enterprises showing a slight increase in production. Downstream demand is expected to see some growth this month. However, market demand is starting to diverge, with NEV orders expected to decrease this month, while ESS demand is performing well, driving overall demand growth. Recently, a battery cell manufacturer began tendering, and the overall tendering process has been relatively smooth. Based on the information available, it is expected that the price war will intensify in H2. Overall, the recent LFP market is mainly focused on tendering, with mediocre demand and a relatively stable market.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, the iron phosphate market remained stable, with no significant fluctuations despite entering H2.Some companies that adjusted prices in June have temporarily halted the downward trend in July. The reason is that new entrants often use low-price strategies to capture the market, and even if established companies reduce prices, their discounts are hard to match those of new entrants, and continuous low prices could lead to greater losses. Companies with previously low sales, while still actively seeking orders, are now holding firm on price, instead focusing on enhancing product competitiveness to secure market share. The current market is characterized by a significant game: new companies using price as a spear to attack the market, and old companies using quality as a shield to defend. Both sides are seeking a dynamic balance in the price tug-of-war, and the iron phosphate market is expected to continue this steady and defensive trend in the short term.
LCO:
Recently, LCO prices have risen significantly due to changes in raw material costs: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have continued to rise, and Co3O4 prices, influenced by DRC policies, have shown a strong desire to increase.On the supply side, Co3O4 companies are quoting high, and LCO cathode plants show low purchase willingness for high-priced Co3O4. On the demand side, terminal demand is entering the off-season, leading to a decrease in LCO demand. Overall, LCO prices are expected to rise significantly along with the increase in Co3O4 and lithium carbonate prices.
Anode:
This week, artificial graphite anode material prices stopped falling and stabilized.On the demand side, the slowdown in automaker production has led to weak growth in power battery cell demand, but the small storage market demand has slightly recovered, partially offsetting the demand gap in the NEV market. This change has been transmitted upstream, keeping the overall demand for anode materials from battery cell manufacturers relatively stable. On the supply side, the ample supply continues. Cost side, with anode and traditional industries restocking, anode raw material costs have stopped falling and rebounded, providing support for artificial graphite prices. With multiple factors intertwined, artificial graphite anode material prices entered a stalemate this week. Looking ahead, although the overcapacity situation is unlikely to change in the short term, related raw material prices are expected to stabilize, supporting anode material prices to gradually enter a stable operating phase.
This week, supported by stable supply-demand and cost conditions, natural graphite anode material prices remained stable. Looking ahead, with accelerated innovation in artificial graphite anode technology and gradual capacity expansion of vapor deposition silicon-carbon producers, downstream customers' dual demands for cost reduction and performance upgrades are gradually shifting procurement preferences toward alternative materials. This trend directly squeezes the market demand space for natural graphite anode. Considering supply-demand dynamics and technological iteration, natural graphite anode material prices are expected to remain under pressure.
Separator:
Separator prices remained generally stable this week. Specifically: mainstream quotations for wet-process separators were 1.35 yuan/m² for 5μm, 0.76 yuan/m² for 7μm, and 0.74 yuan/m² for 9μm. Dry-process separator mainstream quotations were 0.45 yuan/m² for 12μm and 0.44 yuan/m² for 16μm. Supply side, constrained by prolonged capacity release cycles, accumulated inventory capacity has not been fully digested, maintaining a supply surplus. Demand side showed structural divergence: NEV market demand fell short of expectations, while ESS sector demand exceeded prior market forecasts, resulting in a slight MoM increase in overall demand. Given current supply-demand balance, separator prices are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations in the short term.
Electrolyte
: Electrolyte prices held steady this week. Cost side, core raw materials like LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable, maintaining relatively steady cost conditions. Demand side, the NEV market is still digesting inventory, leading to reduced production schedules and a slight MoM decline in power battery demand. The ESS market performed strongly with sustained overseas demand growth. Overall demand growth was relatively small. Supply side, electrolyte producers continued their "produce based on sales" model. Structural overcapacity kept market competition intense. Multiple factors suggest electrolyte prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound.
Sodium-ion battery
: The sodium-ion battery market showed positive momentum this week. NFPP maintained its dominance in cathode materials with technological and cost advantages, enjoying robust order demand and continued price declines. In contrast, layered oxide shipments dropped significantly YoY. Despite occasional low-price sales, cost bottlenecks prevented further price declines, keeping sodium-ion battery cell prices relatively stable. As industry scale expands, defective product issues are becoming prominent. Establishing efficient, environmentally friendly recycling systems for defective sodium-ion batteries may become key to sustainable development, drawing deep industry attention.
Recycling
: Following last week's DRC import/export restrictions, cobalt sulphate prices continued rising but with limited upside due to weak short-term demand support. Nickel sulphate prices were basically stable, while lithium carbonate prices rebounded slightly with oscillating trends. Ternary and LCO black mass coefficients remained flat. Currently, LFP pole piece black mass lithium points were 2,150-2,300 yuan/mtu, and LFP battery black mass lithium points were 1,950-2,100 yuan/mtu. For ternary black mass: ternary pole piece black mass nickel-cobalt coefficients were 72-74%, lithium coefficients 66-70%; ternary battery black mass nickel-cobalt coefficients were 70-72%, prices basically flat WoW. Ternary wet-process demand side, most plants maintained stable procurement volumes this month, consuming only basic inventory. Pessimism about future lithium chemical prices kept black mass purchases cautious, maintaining sluggish market activity. LFP wet-process demand side, most plants operated at half capacity, doing only partial toll processing without external purchases. Supply side, grinding mills and traders adjusted selling prices downward with falling salt prices, keeping black mass prices declining alongside salts. Market activity remained sluggish. Cost side, except for leading integrated wet-process plants, most operators' profits stayed below breakeven, especially LFP wet-process plants hit hard by lithium price drops. Grinding mills fared slightly better but some small-medium plants also faced sustained losses.
Downstream and end-user
: DC-side battery cabin prices dipped slightly this week. Average prices were 0.428 yuan/Wh for 5MWh DC-side battery cabins and 0.437 yuan/Wh for 3.44/3.77MWh units. Stimulated by provincial subsidy policies, ESS integrators saw increased shipments in some regions, but end-users remained cautious due to incomplete power mechanism details. Integrators slightly lowered prices to compete for existing orders. SMM expects DC-side battery cabin prices may continue declining modestly in the short term.
On June 30, the winning bid for 2 million kW "Alashan-Ulanqab" regional mutual aid new energy project ESS equipment procurement was announced. The project, to be built in Alxa High-Tech Industrial Development Zone, Inner Mongolia, has total capacity of 300MW/600MWh. The bid winner's offer was 276 million yuan, translating to 0.46 yuan/Wh.
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News
: [Mercedes Q2 sales at 547,000 units, down 9% YoY] Mercedes sold 547,100 units in Q2, down 9% YoY. The GLC remained Mercedes' global best-seller in H1 2025, with Q2 sales up 9%. Global plug-in hybrid sales rose 34% in Q2. In Europe, xEV share reached 40%, with global share at 21% in Q2. (Cailian Press)
[Spain lithium battery recycling plant fire not extinguished after three days] A fire broke out at a lithium battery recycling plant near Madrid, Spain on the 4th and remained uncontained as of the 6th. Two people were reportedly injured. According to Deutsche Presse-Agentur, the plant is located in an industrial zone approximately 50 kilometers northeast of Madrid, with firefighters still battling the blaze on the 6th. Multiple explosions triggered the inferno, with the cause remaining unclear. (Finance News)
[Four ministries: Aiming for over 100,000 large-power charging facilities nationwide by end of 2027] The General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and three other ministries issued the "Notice on Promoting Scientific Planning and Construction of Large-Power Charging Facilities". The document proposes to align with local economic development levels, NEV promotion efforts, and power resource distribution, prioritizing "charge-and-go" scenarios while implementing tailored, forward-looking, and scientifically reasonable development layouts for large-power charging infrastructure. Provincial departments in charge of charging infrastructure development shall collaborate with relevant authorities to establish development goals and construction tasks for large-power charging facilities within charging network planning, formulate specialized plans for such facilities as needed, prioritize construction plans for highway service areas jointly with transportation authorities, and take the lead in upgrading facilities with utilization rates exceeding 40% during major holidays. Planning shall adhere to market principles with sound forecasting and verification, while coordinating with territorial spatial planning, power distribution grid planning, and transportation planning to achieve synergistic development between large-power charging networks and existing charging infrastructure. By the end of 2027, China aims to have over 100,000 large-power charging facilities nationwide, with service quality and technological applications achieving iterative upgrades. (Finance News)
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
Zihan Wang 021-51666914
Jie Wang 021-51595902Z79/>He Zhang 021-20707850Z80/>Haohan Zhang 021-51666752
Bolun Chen 021-51666836
Mengqi Xu 021-20707868
