China's Refined Tin Industry Operation Analysis and Trend Outlook in June 2025
According to SMM's data based on market exchanges, China's refined tin production in June 2025 decreased by 6.94% MoM and 15.2% YoY. The production cuts were mainly attributed to multiple factors including raw material shortages, cost pressure, and regional production disruptions. A detailed regional analysis is as follows:
Customs data shows that China's tin concentrate imports (physical content) reached 13,449 mt in May 2025. Imports from Myanmar remained sluggish. Although Myanmar was once China's top tin ore supplier, its May imports fell below 700 mt (metal content) due to the mining ban implemented in August 2023 and delayed production resumptions in the Wa region in 2025, reducing its annual import share to below 30%. Despite the MoM rebound in May, cumulative tin concentrate imports (physical content) from January to May totaled 10,000 mt, indicating overall supply remains at historically low levels. The long-term supply gap caused by Myanmar's mining ban has not been fully filled.
Yunnan region faced the most severe raw material shortages. Smelter raw material inventories generally fell below 30 days, triggering fierce competition for tin ore procurement. Some enterprises accumulated excessive inventories due to high-price stockpiling, but weak downstream demand constrained shipments.
Cost pressure became prominent as low-grade ore processing costs remained high, compounded by rising electricity expenses, further reducing operating rates.
In Jiangxi region:
The scrap supply chain broke down, with the tin scrap recycling system under pressure and secondary material circulation decreasing over 30%. Insufficient crude tin supply directly led to refined production declines.
Capacity withdrawal risks emerged as small and medium-sized recycling smelters faced shutdowns due to sustained losses, passively increasing industry concentration.
In Anhui and other regions:
Dual raw material shortages occurred with weak supplies of both tin concentrates and scrap tin. Operating rates remained below 70% of planned capacity for extended periods, and scheduled maintenance at some enterprises further suppressed production.
SMM estimates predict an 8.59% MoM rebound in refined tin production in July, driven by the gradual production resumption at some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi after completing maintenance shutdowns.
