》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis
SMM News on June 20:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2508 contract opened at 20,450 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,490 yuan/mt, a low of 20,360 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,370 yuan/mt, down 0.29%. Trading volume was 63,600 lots, and open interest was 233,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: On the macro front, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Fed policymakers still forecast a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut this year, but they have slowed the pace of future rate cuts. However, Fed Chairman Powell warned against overemphasizing this outlook, noting that with import tariff hikes looming, "quite high" inflation is expected in the future. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity remained stable, and a decrease in casting ingot volume kept domestic aluminum ingot inventory in a destocking state. On the cost side, alumina and auxiliary material prices are expected to weaken, weakening cost support for aluminum. On the demand side, domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties exert dual pressure, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is expected to decline under pressure in the short term. Overall, the current low inventory and expectations of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but off-season pressure on the demand side limits upside room. Spot aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, with aluminum prices expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,890 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,925 yuan/mt, a low of 2,880 yuan/mt, and closed flat at 2,890 yuan/mt (0.00%). Trading volume was 187,000 lots, and open interest was 291,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: This week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, considering ore costs, there were new reports of production cuts. Alumina operating capacity saw both increases and decreases. Overall, alumina operating capacity decreased by 440,000 mt/year MoM to 88.57 million mt/year this week, and spot supply remained loose. This week, the total alumina inventory of aluminum smelters increased by 8,600 mt to 2.655 million mt. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose, and alumina spot prices are expected to drop back slightly. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in domestic alumina enterprises' capacity and their profitability.
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