》Check SMM's aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis
SMM News on June 18:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,585 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,745 yuan/mt, a low of 20,565 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,680 yuan/mt, up 0.46%. Trading volume was 80,000 lots, and open interest was 199,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: On the macro front, softening US economic data and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have made the market nervous. US retail sales in May were weaker than expected, but consumer spending remained supported by robust wage growth. Fundamentals side, domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and a decrease in casting ingot volume contributed to the destocking of domestic aluminum ingot inventory. Cost side, alumina and auxiliary material prices are expected to weaken, reducing cost support for electrolytic aluminum. Demand side, the sector faces dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure to decline in the short term. Overall, the current low inventory and expectations of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices, but the off-season pressure on the demand side limits upside room. Spot aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,896 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,929 yuan/mt, a low of 2,881 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,929 yuan/mt, up 0.83%. Trading volume was 274,000 lots, and open interest was 300,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: Last week, the operating capacity of alumina rose by 1.74 million mt/year MoM to 89.01 million mt/year. Spot supply was relatively loose compared to the previous period, and the total weekly inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 16,000 mt to 2.646 million mt. Recently, the alumina market has been relatively quiet, and fundamentals are expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern. Earlier, some ex-factory prices of around 3,100 yuan/mt were reported in the northern alumina spot market, and sporadic spot transactions were reported in south-west China, with the lowest reaching 3,200 yuan/mt. Transaction prices were at a discount to the online price. In the short term, alumina spot prices are expected to maintain a downward trend. Follow-up attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.
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