June 18 News:
According to SMM statistics, on June 18, the aluminum ingot inventory in Guangdong was 160,500 mt; in Wuxi, it was 114,000 mt; and in Gongyi, it was 51,000 mt. The total inventory across these three regions was 325,500 mt, a decrease of 6,000 mt from the previous trading day.
By mid-June, the destocking of aluminum ingots in China slowed significantly this week. Driven by regional price spreads and inter-regional transfers, the arrival of goods in Shanghai, Wuxi (east China), and Gongyi (central China) increased notably over the weekend. Meanwhile, inventory in Foshan (south China) dropped sharply. In other regions of China, inventory remained largely stable. SMM believes that in the short term, supported by the overall still-low domestic casting ingot output, inventory is expected to continue its destocking trend. However, the recent slight increase in shipments from north-west China and inter-regional transfers due to price spreads have already exerted significant pressure on east and central China this week, with the arrival of additional goods. Coupled with the expectation that some aluminum smelters will increase casting ingot production, the tight supply of circulating goods may ease. Looking ahead, the current high aluminum prices are suppressing the release of downstream restocking demand. In the second half of the month, the overall destocking in China is expected to face slowing pressure. Close attention should be paid to whether the national inventory can successfully hit a new low for the year at 440,000 mt before the off-season transitions into an inventory buildup trend, thereby further boosting market sentiment.
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