》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis
SMM, June 3:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,115 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,200 yuan/mt, a low of 19,845 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,860 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume was 184,000 lots, and open interest was 191,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: On the macro front, escalating Sino-US trade tensions and EU concerns over the US raising aluminum tariffs (to 50%) have heightened market uncertainty. However, the rebound in China's May manufacturing PMI and improved export indicators provide demand support, with economic resilience potentially limiting the decline. Aluminum prices are under short-term pressure and may fluctuate rangebound. On the fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters remained stable. Notably, some aluminum smelters in north China increased the proportion of liquid aluminum used in alloying, reducing casting ingot volumes and affecting deliveries to major consumption areas. According to SMM statistics, as of June 3, the inventory of aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption areas was 519,000 mt, an increase of 8,000 mt from last Thursday. Costs in the aluminum industry's cost side rose during the week. As of last Thursday, the domestic instantaneous average complete cost of aluminum was approximately 17,200 yuan/mt, up about 258 yuan/mt from last Thursday, mainly due to ore-side disruptions stimulating higher alumina prices. Aluminum smelter costs rose 1.5% WoW, compressing smelter profits. Additionally, on the demand side, some downstream sectors are showing expectations of an off-season. Demand for PV aluminum has decreased, and automotive materials demand is expected to weaken in mid-to-late June. Construction aluminum demand remains lukewarm, but currently benefits from orders from State Grid, keeping the operating rate of aluminum wire and cable high. In summary, on the macro front, the domestic favorable atmosphere remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties persist. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has declined more than expected, providing support for aluminum prices and spot premiums. Currently, some industries are showing expectations of weakening during the off-season, but the overall decline is better than expected, with demand resilience remaining. Going forward, it is necessary to closely monitor changes in inventory and demand. Amidst mixed factors, domestic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,030 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,032 yuan/mt, a low of 2,967 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,998 yuan/mt, up 1.22%. Trading volume was 423,000 lots, and open interest was 311,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, the weekly operating capacity of alumina continued to rebound, reaching 86.67 million mt/year as of last Thursday, up MoM, further alleviating spot supply pressure and slowing the rise in spot prices. Recent overseas alumina transactions have been sluggish, with relatively small price fluctuations. As domestic prices continue to rise, alumina imports have shifted from losses to profits, and the domestic alumina import window is gradually opening. In the short term, as some alumina production capacity that was shut down for maintenance gradually resumes production, the supply pressure on alumina is expected to ease gradually. The average profit margin of the alumina industry has turned profitable, and the market has strong expectations for alumina production resumptions. Alumina futures prices have taken the lead in pulling back, which may drive spot prices to weaken. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor changes in the production capacity of domestic alumina enterprises, as well as the supply of imported alumina.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make prudent decisions and should not rely on this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
