View SMM Aluminum Product Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis
SMM May 29:
The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,105 yuan/mt today, hitting a high of 20,140 yuan/mt and a low of 20,005 yuan/mt, before closing at 20,070 yuan/mt, down 0.20%. Trading volume stood at 111,000 lots, while open interest reached 196,000 lots.
SMM Review: Macro perspective, the domestic positive sentiment remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties persist. Fundamentals side, short-term aluminum market supply remains stable without significant changes. According to SMM statistics, Guangdong's aluminum ingot inventory reached 212,000 mt on May 30, Wuxi's stood at 132,000 mt, and Gongyi's totaled 46,000 mt, bringing the combined inventory across these three regions to 390,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. Cost side, price fluctuations triggered by earlier bauxite supply disruptions in Guinea have gradually eased, while spot alumina price increases have slowed markedly. As alumina producers' profit margins improve, some companies are expected to resume production, which may impact future market supply. Demand side, although some industries have shown signs of off-season weakness, the overall decline is better than expected, with demand resilience remaining. Overall, the unexpected decline in domestic aluminum ingot inventory has provided support for aluminum prices and spot premiums. However, the lack of macro-level positive surprises recently has made it difficult for aluminum prices to rise further. Meanwhile, off-season pressure on the demand side has also limited the upside room for aluminum prices to some extent. Therefore, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound in the short term.
The most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,955 yuan/mt today, reaching a high of 2,973 yuan/mt and a low of 2,930 yuan/mt, before closing at 2,962 yuan/mt, up 0.27%. Trading volume reached 246,000 lots, while open interest stood at 320,000 lots.
SMM Review: This week, alumina operating capacity continued to rebound, up 1.46 million mt/year WoW to 86.67 million mt/year, further easing spot supply pressure and slowing spot price gains. Overseas alumina trading remained sluggish recently, with relatively small price fluctuations. As domestic prices continue to rise, alumina imports have turned profitable, with the import window gradually opening. In the short term, as some alumina production cuts resume operations, supply pressure is expected to ease further. The alumina industry's average profit has entered positive territory, and market expectations for production resumptions remain strong. Alumina futures prices pulled back first, which may lead to weaker spot prices. Going forward, close attention should be paid to domestic alumina producers' capacity changes and imported alumina supply conditions.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
