》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis
SMM, May 29:
Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,085 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,245 yuan/mt, a low of 20,085 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,200 yuan/mt, up 0.65%. Trading volume was 118,000 lots, and open interest was 208,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: From a macro perspective, the Fed's meeting minutes showed that participants agreed that uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased, and that a cautious monetary policy was appropriate. On the fundamentals side, the overall supply side of the short-term aluminum market remained stable, with no significant changes. According to SMM statistics, as of May 29, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 511,000 mt, down 23,000 mt from Monday and 46,000 mt WoW from Thursday. On the cost side, the price fluctuations caused by earlier supply disruptions of Guinea's bauxite have gradually eased, and the growth rate of domestic spot alumina prices has significantly slowed down. As the profit margins of alumina enterprises have improved, some companies are expected to initiate production resumption plans, which may have a certain impact on subsequent market supply. On the demand side, it is facing dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties. The operating rate of short-term aluminum processing enterprises continues to be under pressure. It is necessary to monitor whether downstream export orders can truly improve and offset the expected weakening of domestic demand. Overall, although aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, providing some support for aluminum prices, the recent lack of unexpectedly positive macro factors makes it difficult to drive aluminum prices higher. Meanwhile, the off-season pressure on the demand side also limits the upside room for aluminum prices to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a fluctuating rangebound consolidation pattern in the short term.
Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,957 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,979 yuan/mt, a low of 2,923 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,964 yuan/mt, up 0.54%. Trading volume was 454,000 lots, and open interest was 353,000 lots.
SMM Commentary: This week, the weekly operating capacity of alumina continued to rebound, increasing by 1.46 million mt/year WoW to 86.67 million mt/year, further alleviating the pressure on spot supply and slowing the growth rate of spot prices. Recent overseas alumina transactions have been sluggish, with relatively small price fluctuations. As domestic prices continue to rise, alumina imports have turned from losses to profits, and the domestic alumina import window is gradually opening. In the short term, with the gradual resumption of production of some alumina capacities that were previously shut down for maintenance, the supply pressure of alumina is expected to gradually ease, and alumina spot prices are expected to enter a phase of oscillatory adjustment. It is necessary to continuously monitor changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.
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