Lithium Ore:
This week, lithium ore prices continued to decline WoW. For spodumene, while overseas mines on the supply side showed some willingness to stand firm on quotes, they were forced to lower their offers due to selling pressure. Traders, facing inventory pressure and cash flow issues, also reduced their quotes in tandem. On the demand side, given the current low lithium chemical prices, downstream psychological price levels continued to drop, and there was weak willingness to purchase lithium ore priced above CIF USD 700/mt. Overall, amid the fluctuating lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, both sellers and buyers in the lithium ore market adopted a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in mediocre trading activity. On the lepidolite front, as lithium carbonate prices continued to decline, the acceptable price level for lepidolite from demanders also decreased, leading traders to lower their quotes and driving down market prices. Considering the trend of lithium carbonate prices and recent cost reductions at overseas lithium mines, there is an expectation of some weakening in lithium ore prices.
Lithium Carbonate:
This week, the lithium carbonate market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price rising from RMB 64,808/mt to RMB 65,061/mt, a cumulative increase of RMB 253/mt. From the perspective of market transactions, downstream enterprises showed relatively weak purchase willingness, with overall demand primarily met through customer-supplied and long-term contract supplies. Upstream lithium chemical plants, under pressure from cost losses, demonstrated strong willingness to stand firm on quotes, with limited transactions occurring mainly between traders and downstream enterprises. The US's latest tariff policy on China, which includes a 90-day exemption period, may prompt Chinese ESS battery cells to experience an expected rush in exports, thereby boosting demand for lithium carbonate. However, considering the relatively high level of accumulated lithium carbonate inventory and the continuous decline in ore prices, which has weakened cost support, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate at lows, being more likely to fall than rise.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices continued to decline. On the demand side, most demanders primarily rely on long-term contracts and customer-supplied lithium hydroxide for their purchases, with only a few spot orders for incremental demand. On the supply side, most enterprises maintained relatively stable production rhythms, with generally high inventory levels. Their willingness to drive down prices and stand firm on quotes towards downstream buyers has somewhat weakened, leading to a decline in transaction prices. With lithium carbonate prices at lows and lithium ore prices also declining, cost support for lithium hydroxide has weakened. Coupled with the current lack of expectations for a significant increase in demand, lithium hydroxide prices are more likely to fall than rise.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, spot prices for refined cobalt rebounded. From the supply side, production cuts at refined cobalt smelters continued, and the market is still digesting social inventory. On the demand side, orders from downstream producers have not shown significant recovery, with producers maintaining a purchasing rhythm based on production schedules as needed, and no significant restocking actions have been observed among downstream buyers. According to the latest news, the DRC has not yet announced relevant policies on cobalt export bans, with follow-up announcements expected in June. It is anticipated that the short-term supply-demand situation will remain unchanged next week, and refined cobalt prices may fluctuate.
Intermediate Products:
This week, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products held up well. According to the latest news, the DRC has not yet announced follow-up policies on cobalt exports, with announcements expected in June. On the supply side, traders are maintaining their quotes for available goods, with mainstream spot quotes for cobalt intermediate products slightly rising and remaining high, following buying sentiment. On the demand side, as some downstream producers have already completed stockpiling in the previous period, there has been little purchasing activity recently, resulting in slightly mediocre spot trading for cobalt intermediate products. It is expected that cobalt intermediate products may operate relatively steadily next week.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, spot prices for cobalt sulphate declined. From the supply side, spot quotes for cobalt sulphate from smelters have slightly loosened, and quotes from recyclers have also decreased. On the demand side, downstream cathode plants have shown weak acceptance of current cobalt sulphate prices, with no purchasing actions observed; while Co3O4 enterprises are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in extremely sluggish spot trading for cobalt sulphate recently. It is expected that spot prices for cobalt sulphate may maintain a fluctuating trend next week.
This week, cobalt chloride prices slightly declined. From the supply perspective, due to unresolved transportation cycle issues for overseas cobalt raw materials, smelters remain cautious in their quoting, with almost no instances of low-price dumping. From the demand perspective, purchasing rhythms of downstream Co3O4 enterprises have slowed down, with fewer market inquiries, and spot transactions are mainly for small-batch rigid demand. It is anticipated that the peak sales season for NEVs in Q3 may drive a rebound in downstream enterprises' restocking demand, and the cobalt chloride market may continue to fluctuate at highs. Industry insiders maintain a strong wait-and-see attitude towards cost transmission and policy expectations.
Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):
This week, prices for Co3O4 continued to decline. Despite the high raw material costs due to export bans in the DRC, excessive domestic inventory has also suppressed the upward momentum of prices, with spot quotes remaining weak. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with most LCO enterprises still purchasing as needed. The market inquiry atmosphere is sluggish, with a decrease in effective transaction orders, and the overall market is in a wait-and-see phase. The industry is generally waiting for further stimulus news, and it is expected that spot prices for Co3O4 will continue to decline in the short term.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of Thursday this week, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was RMB 27,753/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate being RMB 27,760 to RMB 28,230/mt, and the average price slightly lower WoW. From the demand side, influenced by downstream material plants' destocking, the procurement demand for nickel sulphate has shown a contraction trend. Currently, downstream enterprises generally maintain a low-inventory strategy, with only a few precursor plants having a small amount of restocking demand, resulting in weak market activity. On the supply side, nickel salt producers face a dual game between selling pressure and cost support. Some nickel salt plants, under inventory pressure, have lowered their quotes this week to facilitate transactions. The current production cost of nickel sulphate still provides rigid support for prices, constraining the downside room. Looking ahead, considering that there are no obvious signs of a significant rebound in downstream procurement rhythms, it is expected that nickel sulphate prices will continue to decline slightly in the short term.
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
This week, prices for 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series products in the ternary cathode precursor market declined. In terms of raw material costs, prices for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and manganese sulphate have all shown a downward trend, driving down the prices of precursor products in different series. From the demand side, the overall performance of the large power-type precursor market has been mediocre. Despite some order transfers among manufacturers, there has been no significant increase in overall demand, which is still mainly supported by existing projects. Orders for small power-type and consumer-type precursors have increased recently, primarily influenced by rising cobalt prices, with some downstream material plants choosing to stock up in advance, but the actual increase in demand has been limited. On the supply side, influenced by market fluctuations this year, power-type precursor producers generally no longer sign long-term orders (such as for half a year or a year) and instead adopt monthly negotiation of discounts for transactions. Some enterprises have raised the discount coefficients for long-term contracts, but downstream customers have shown low acceptance of the adjusted prices. Consumer-type precursors are still mainly sold through spot orders, with discount coefficients remaining basically stable since April. Currently, there is still a price negotiation phase between precursor enterprises and downstream material plants. Looking ahead to next week, it is expected that raw material prices will continue to fluctuate, and ternary cathode precursor prices may decline slightly.
Ternary Cathode Material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices continued to decline. In terms of raw materials, prices for nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, manganese sulphate, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide have all shown varying degrees of decline, but the decline in lithium salt prices has slowed down. From the demand side, the large power market has shown stable performance. Despite some automakers achieving good sales, providing certain support for ternary cathode materials, the increase in demand has been limited. The traditional peak season for the consumer market has not yet arrived. Although some producers have stocked up in advance due to rising cobalt prices, the overall increase in demand has still been relatively limited. On the supply side, the current market supply mainly relies on previously signed long-term contracts, with some enterprises having raised the relevant discount coefficients. In terms of spot transactions, producers generally adopt a settlement method of negotiating discounts separately for raw materials such as nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and lithium carbonate, with the discount coefficients for spot quotes having increased, but downstream acceptance has been low. Market trading sentiment has been weak recently, mainly influenced by the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices. The market still holds a pessimistic outlook for its future, leading to weak willingness to sell among ternary cathode material producers. In addition, downstream battery plants have already completed some stockpiling previously, with low willingness to purchase in the short term. In terms of price trends, it is expected that raw material prices will continue to decline slightly, and ternary cathode material prices may further decline due to fluctuations in raw material prices.
LFP:
This week, the decline in LFP prices slowed down, with an overall decrease of approximately RMB 75/mt, mainly due to signs of lithium carbonate prices stabilizing and rebounding in the past two days, although they still decreased by approximately RMB 450/mt for the week. On the market side, material plants have been more active in production this week, with output from top-tier material plants beginning to recover. Demand from downstream battery cell manufacturers has rebounded compared to the beginning of the month, primarily due to the US's reduction in tariffs on China, prompting downstream battery cell manufacturers to rush installations and exports to smoothly ship to the US before tariff increases and to accelerate production to avoid political instability. In terms of price settlement, the average price of iron phosphate showed a slight upward trend in April, with some LFP plants holding expectations for an increase in processing fees in Q2, but no substantive results were achieved after negotiations and discussions with downstream battery cell manufacturers. However, currently, the price of iron phosphate raw materials has begun to decline, so there is an expectation of some price reductions for iron phosphate in May. Additionally, with some battery cell manufacturers planning to restart tenders in June, the probability of price increases before that is low. Considering these two points, SMM expects that processing fees in Q2 will be difficult to increase.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, iron phosphate prices remained stable. On the raw material side, industrial-grade MAP prices stabilized after a slight increase. Competition in the iron phosphate market remained intense in May, making it difficult for enterprises to stand firm on quotes. Some iron phosphate enterprises have limited orders, and some plan to cut production in May to cope with the current difficulties and stabilize the market supply-demand relationship.
LCO:
This week, the mainstream quotations for 4.2V/4.4V/4.5V LCO in the market were RMB 219,000/mt, RMB 224,000/mt, and RMB 235,000/mt, respectively. On the raw material side, battery-grade lithium carbonate continued its previous downward trend this week, and Co3O4 prices slightly declined. Influenced by raw material prices, LCO prices slightly decreased this week. On the supply side, since April, top-tier enterprises have fully released their capacity, with production steadily increasing and remaining at high levels. On the demand side, terminal manufacturers are stocking up for the 618 shopping festival, driving an increase in purchase orders from battery cell manufacturers. In addition, influenced by DRC policies, cobalt still has significant uncertainty, so LCO cathode plants are cautious in their shipments.
Anode:
This week, prices for some artificial graphite slightly declined. On the cost side, graphitisation tolling service prices have remained relatively stable amid the tug-of-war between supply and demand and costs. The price of raw coke has continued to decline due to weak downstream demand. On the supply and demand side, influenced by tariffs, the demand side lacks growth momentum. Anode enterprises' output has increased with the decline in raw coke prices, but as the decline in coke prices has not covered previous increases, anode production is mainly based on sales. Looking ahead, on the cost side, raw material prices may adopt a strategy to stand firm on quotes. On the demand side, within the 90-day tariff waiting period, downstream demand may increase. Therefore, it is expected that anode material prices may rise due to increased demand and cost support, but overcapacity may inhibit the extent of price increases for anode materials.
This week, the price of natural graphite experienced a slight decline. On the cost side, there were no significant changes in the prices of core raw materials and processing costs this week. The supply side remained relatively abundant, while downstream demand was sluggish with no signs of improvement. Therefore, although there was no significant fluctuation in production costs during this period, due to production lag, the price decline in raw materials in the previous period led to a slight drop in the price of natural graphite anode material this week. Looking ahead, demand may increase due to tariff impacts. However, as the specification gap between artificial graphite and natural graphite anodes narrows, and with a significant price difference still existing, the growth in demand for natural graphite will be relatively limited, and the supply side will remain ample. It is expected that the price of natural graphite anode material will continue to face downward pressure in the future.
Separator:
This week, the prices of lithium battery separator materials remained stable. The mainstream quotations for wet-process separators of 5um/7um/9um were 1.59 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.75 yuan, respectively.The mainstream quotations for dry-process separators of 12um/16um were 0.46 yuan and 0.43 yuan, respectively. Since the post-Lunar New Year period, separator companies have had a strong sentiment for price increases. Currently, as negotiations for Q2 orders are underway, significant changes in price trends are expected in the near future. On the supply side, after the expansion of wet-process separator companies, separator supply exceeded demand, and the capacity utilization rates of all companies remained relatively high. In the dry-process separator market, due to oversupply, companies voluntarily restricted production capacity, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand situation. On the demand side, increased downstream end-use demand drove an increase in purchasing orders from battery cell manufacturers.
Electrolyte
This week, the price of electrolyte remained stable.On the cost side, the prices of core raw materials, including LiPF6 and additives, declined, leading to a reduction in the overall manufacturing cost of electrolytes. On the demand side, the downstream new energy battery market showed signs of recovery, but downstream customers generally adopted a cautious production and stockpiling strategy, adhering to the principle of purchasing as needed. This resulted in insufficient overall market demand momentum, making it difficult to form a significant boosting effect on the industry chain. On the supply side, major companies in the industry continued to deepen the "produce based on sales" operational model, flexibly adjusting production capacity according to actual market demand. However, with electrolyte prices remaining low for an extended period, corporate profit margins have been severely squeezed. Some companies, considering cost control and loss mitigation, have proactively avoided orders with excessively low prices and significant losses, resulting in a low overall operating rate in the industry. Based on a comprehensive assessment, considering that substantial improvements in the supply-demand relationship are unlikely in the short term and the lack of strong stimulating factors in the industry, it is expected that electrolyte prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the coming period.
Sodium-ion battery:
Traditional cathode companies are gradually entering the sodium-ion battery sector, with sodium-ion battery products being launched sequentially.As upstream and downstream supporting projects for the sodium-ion battery industry chain accelerate their layout, production lines for key components such as anode and cathode materials and battery cells will be sequentially established and achieve mass production. The production cost of sodium-ion batteries will continue to decline. Meanwhile, sodium-ion batteries, with their inherent advantages of high safety and excellent C-rate performance, will further enhance their competitiveness in niche markets such as energy storage and low-speed vehicles.
Recycling:
Supply side: This week, lithium chemical products mainly fluctuated, while nickel salts and cobalt salts experienced a slight decline.The coefficients for black mass of ternary and LCO also continued to decline this week. Taking ternary black mass as an example: the current coefficient for black mass from ternary pole pieces is 74-77%, and for ternary battery black mass is 71.5-73.5%. The lithium point for black mass from LFP pole pieces is 2,500-2,700 yuan/mtu, and for LFP battery black mass is 2,200-2,400 yuan/mtu. On the supply side, the psychological selling prices of grinding mills and traders remain relatively firm. Additionally, some grinding mills, with their current profits still below the surplus line, choose to hold back from selling and wait for market conditions to improve. Market transactions were even sluggisher in April on a MoM basis. On the demand side, most wet-process plants, in the face of the continuous decline in nickel, cobalt, and lithium salt prices, only make just-in-time procurement of black mass. Moreover, due to the market's pessimistic outlook on future lithium salt prices, they only stockpile about one and a half months' worth of safe raw material inventory. On the cost side, except for leading integrated wet-process plants, the profits of most wet-process plants remain below the surplus line. While the profits of grinding mills are slightly better than those of wet-process plants, the profits of some small and medium-sized grinding mills continue to be negative.
Downstream and end-users:
This week, the price of DC-side battery cabins fluctuated slightly.The average price of 5MWh DC-side battery cabins was 0.43 yuan/Wh, and for 3.44/3.77MWh DC-side battery cabins, it was 0.438 yuan/Wh. As the node for the full marketization of on-grid tariffs for incremental projects under Document No. 136 approaches, the detailed rules for energy storage participation in the power market mechanisms have not yet been fully introduced in all provinces. Owners are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, maintaining a stable supply-demand pattern in the energy storage market and resulting in minor price fluctuations for DC-side battery cabins. On May 12, China and the US issued the "China-US Geneva Joint Statement on Economic and Trade Talks," reducing the tariff on China's energy storage products imported to the US to 40.9%. The division of tariff burden between US owners and Chinese energy storage integrators still requires time for negotiation. SMM expects that the price of DC-side battery cabins may continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term.
On May 13, the winning bid result for the design and construction EPC of the Suqian Xinchu 200MW/400MWh Energy Storage Power Station Project by Suqian Xinchu Technology Co., Ltd. was announced. The project is located in Suqian City, Jiangsu Province, with a scale of 200MW/400MWh. The winning bid price was 1.2 yuan/Wh.
》Order to view historical spot prices of SMM's new energy products
》Click to view SMM'snew energyindustry chain database
News:
[Expert: All-solid-state batteries are expected to achieve small-scale vehicle integration before 2030] Zheng Yali, Assistant Secretary General of the China Society of Automotive Engineers and Deputy Dean of the National Automotive Strategy Research Institute, stated at the opening ceremony of the CIBF 2025 Advanced Battery Frontier Technology Symposium that the selection of solid-state battery electrolytes needs to simultaneously consider conductivity, processability, stability, and manufacturing costs. Currently, there are two main technological routes closer to industrialization: one is sulphide electrolytes, and the other is polymer composite electrolytes. The mass production and application of all-solid-state batteries still require breakthroughs in key scientific issues at the material level and efficient production processes/cost reduction at the industrial level. It is expected that pilot production lines for all-solid-state batteries will be established, and prototype vehicles equipped with them will be launched around 2027. Small-scale mass production and vehicle integration of all-solid-state batteries may be achieved around 2030.
[Nissan CEO: Need to Save Itself Before Seeking Partners] Nissan's Chief Executive Officer, Ivan Espinosa, stated that the company is focusing on helping itself by improving liquidity before considering cooperation with other companies. Earlier this year, Nissan attempted to merge with its larger Japanese peer, Honda, but the effort failed. (Cailian Press)
[Geely Auto's Gui Shengyue: Confident in Exceeding Annual Sales Target] At Geely Auto's Q1 earnings conference, Gui Shengyue, the company's Administrative President and Executive Director, expressed confidence in achieving or exceeding the annual sales target. "As various integrations progress in depth, Geely Auto will continue to enhance its profitability." Data shows that in Q1 2025, Geely Auto's sales reached 703,800 units, up 48% YoY, accounting for approximately 26% of the annual target. (Cailian Press)
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Lin Ziya 86-2151666902
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lv Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang He 021-20707850
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Xu Yang 021-51666760
Chen Bolin 021-51666836
Xu Mengqi 021-20707868
