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【SMM Steel Market Morning Brief】Major Projects Commence in Multiple Regions, Infrastructure Investment May Accelerate in Q2

  • Apr 21, 2025, at 8:02 am
Since the beginning of this year, significant progress has been made in major projects, with project funds being rapidly allocated. In Q1, infrastructure investment grew by 5.8%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. Recently, provinces such as Zhejiang and Hubei have seen a concentrated commencement of provincial-level major projects in Q2. From the perspective of project investment direction, industrial projects and new quality productive forces are clearly prioritized. Experts stated that, currently, in the face of a complex international environment, investment remains the "main force" in "supporting" China's economy. Entering Q2, with the acceleration of project construction and fund allocation, investment is expected to further...

★Macro★

01 ★★★ 【US Government Plans to Impose Additional Fees on Chinese Ships Docking at US Ports】

The US government has proposed measures to impose additional fees on Chinese ships docking at US ports. On April 17, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) announced a plan to charge all Chinese-built and Chinese-owned ships docking in the US based on the volume of cargo they carry. The fees collected will be used to revitalize the declining US shipbuilding industry. According to the so-called Section 301, the related fees will be levied after six months and will be implemented in two phases. In the first phase, owners and operators of Chinese ships will be charged based on net tonnage, with car carriers subject to separate fees. The second phase will begin three years later, restricting foreign ships from transporting liquefied natural gas, with the restrictions gradually increasing over a 22-year period.

02 ★★★ 【Foreign Ministry: China Will Continue to Deepen Friendly Cooperation with Neighboring Countries Such as Cambodia】The Foreign Ministry stated that China will continue to deepen friendly cooperation with neighboring countries such as Cambodia, guided by the principles of amity, security, prosperity, sincerity, mutual benefit, and a shared future. This will ensure that the achievements of Chinese modernization better benefit the region, promote the building of a community with a shared future in the neighborhood, and jointly advance the modernization process in Asia.

★Industry and Downstream★

01 ★★★ 【South Korea's Steel Exports to the US Fell Nearly 19% in March Due to Trump's Tariffs】

Data released by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) on Friday showed that South Korea's steel exports to the US in March amounted to $340 million, down 18.9% YoY. This is likely a result of the Trump administration's imposition of hefty tariffs on all steel imports starting last month. The US also eliminated tariff-free quotas for steel imports from South Korea and other countries. Industry observers noted that it is still difficult to assess the impact of US tariffs on South Korea's steel exports, as transactions are typically completed months in advance, but some effects may still be felt.

02 ★★★ 【Major Projects Kick Off in Multiple Regions, Q2 Infrastructure Investment Expected to Accelerate】

Since the beginning of this year, major projects have been progressing steadily, with project funds being disbursed at a faster pace. Infrastructure investment in Q1 grew by 5.8%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the full-year growth rate of the previous year. Recently, provincial-level major projects in regions such as Zhejiang and Hubei have been launched in Q2. The investment focus is clearly on industrial projects and new quality productive forces. Experts stated that, in the face of a complex international environment, investment remains the "main force" in stabilizing China's economy. As project construction and fund allocation accelerate in Q2, investment is expected to further speed up.

03 ★★ 【Analysts: Infrastructure Investment Expected to Accelerate in April】

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Oriental Jincheng, stated that Q1 infrastructure investment grew by 5.8% YoY, driven by early implementation of growth-stabilizing policies and a significant increase in local government bond issuance. "The US-initiated global trade war will have a strong impact on global industrial and supply chains, leading to an overall slowdown in external demand. To stabilize macroeconomic operations and mitigate the sudden external shocks, domestic demand must step up in a timely manner, which will undoubtedly accelerate the pace of domestic macro policy adjustments. We expect infrastructure investment to further accelerate in April." Ma Hong, Senior Researcher at Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, also noted that due to factors such as slowing external demand and trade protectionism, the investment outlook for some traditional labor-intensive manufacturing sectors faces challenges. However, fiscal and monetary policies are expected to increase funding support for key areas, promoting the development of new quality productive forces. Investment in high-tech manufacturing is expected to maintain rapid growth, contributing more to the structural transformation of the manufacturing sector. By the end of Q2, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to continue expanding compared to the end of Q1.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕【March Electricity Consumption Up 4.8% YoY】The National Energy Administration released electricity consumption data today, showing that March's total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, up 4.8% YoY. By sector, electricity consumption in the primary industry was 10.6 billion kWh, up 9.9% YoY; the secondary industry consumed 557.8 billion kWh, up 3.8% YoY; the tertiary industry used 148.4 billion kWh, up 8.4% YoY; and residential electricity consumption was 111.4 billion kWh, up 5.0% YoY. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,384.6 billion kWh, up 2.5% YoY.

⭕Australian mining company Genmin will collaborate with China Hydropower Construction Group to advance the development of the large-scale Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. The Baniaka iron ore project has already obtained a 20-year large-scale mining license, with JORC resources totaling 760 million mt and an average iron grade of 36.7%.

⭕On April 17, 2025, the Eurasian Economic Commission announced the final ruling of the first sunset review on seamless steel pipes from China, maintaining a 15.5% anti-dumping duty for five years. The products involved are circular corrosion-resistant stainless steel pipes with an outer diameter ≤650mm, covering six tariff codes including 7304491000. The Commission determined that removing the duty would lead to the continuation of dumping and industrial damage.

⭕Steel Sheets & Plates: China exported 6.53 million mt in March, down 4.9% YoY; cumulative exports from January to March were 17.44 million mt, down 2.8% YoY. Steel Bars: China exported 1.66 million mt in March, up 44.4% YoY; cumulative exports from January to March were 4.12 million mt, up 48.5% YoY.

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