Ø HRC Weekly Balance
Ø This Week's Production Up MoM
This week, HRC production increased slightly MoM.
Ø This Week's HRC Social Inventory Decline Widened
This week, SMM statistics showed that the national HRC social inventory in 86 warehouses (large sample) was 3.6052 million mt, down 229,500 mt MoM, a 5.98% MoM decline, and down 13.79% YoY. This week, the national social inventory continued to decline, with the decline widening. By region, the declines in north China, south China, and east China were greater than those in central China and north-east China. In detail:
l [Shanghai] This Week's Shanghai Inventory Decline Accelerated
This week, Shanghai's HRC inventory was 31.45 mt, down 1.8 mt WoW, a 5.41% decline; down 18.82% YoY, and down 16.53% on a lunar calendar basis.
l [Lecong] This Week's Lecong Inventory Continued to Decline Significantly
This week, Lecong's HRC inventory was 71.33 mt, down 63,100 mt WoW, an 8.13% decline; down 266,700 mt YoY, a 27.21% YoY decline.
l [Zhangjiagang] This Week's Zhangjiagang Inventory Continued to Decline
This week, Zhangjiagang's HRC inventory was 395,000 mt, down 15,000 mt WoW, a 3.66% decline; up 4.50% YoY, and up 17.56% on a lunar calendar basis.
The impact of steel mill maintenance decreased, and HRC supply increased slightly; futures first fell and then rose, driving an improvement in market sentiment during the price increase period, with end-users actively purchasing at low prices, and social inventory continued to decline significantly. Looking ahead, in the short term, new steel mill maintenance remains limited, and supply pressure fluctuates at high levels. Next week coincides with the pre-Labour Day restocking period, with a relatively long holiday, and the macro Politburo meeting is imminent, which is expected to improve market sentiment. End-user restocking may be released, and the national social inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term.
