Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Futures Contract on April 21, 2025
As of midday today (11:30), the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) was quoted at 259,700 yuan/mt, up 1.16% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The intraday high reached 259,880 yuan/mt, while the low touched 256,240 yuan/mt, showing a volatile rebound pattern. Open interest slightly decreased, indicating that the game between bulls and bears over policies and supply-demand imbalances is intensifying.
US Fed Policy Game: Trump publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell for "slow rate hikes" and hinted at possible intervention in monetary policy independence. The US dollar index experienced increased volatility, but risk-off sentiment continued to suppress the performance of risk assets.
Domestic Policy Countermeasures: The PBOC injected a net 222 billion yuan of liquidity on April 18, coupled with the MIIT's growth stabilization plans for the machinery and automotive industries, partially alleviating market concerns over liquidity and end-use demand.
The Bisie tin mine in the DRC announced a phased resumption of production, easing earlier concerns over supply disruptions caused by armed conflicts.
Domestic Yinman Mining resumed production on April 16 after an accident-related shutdown, but uncertainties remain regarding the mining ban policy in Myanmar's Wa State. Tin concentrate TCs remain low, and expectations for smelting production cuts persist.
Short-Term Trends: After rebounding to around 258,000 yuan/mt during midday, prices faced resistance. Technically, attention is focused on the resistance level at 258,700 yuan/mt and the support level at 256,000 yuan/mt. If the DRC's resumption progress exceeds expectations or US tariff policies escalate further, prices may test the 250,000 yuan/mt mark. Conversely, if domestic economic data (such as electricity consumption and industrial added value) exceed expectations, it could boost demand expectations.
