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Trump expressed confidence in the trade agreement, and overnight copper prices closed higher [SMM Morning Comment].
Apr 18, 2025, at 9:00 am
【Trump Expresses Confidence in Trade Deal, Overnight Copper Prices Close Higher】Macro-wise, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the seventh rate cut in the past year, with the decision being unanimously approved, and the US dollar index stabilized. Trump expressed confidence in reaching a trade deal with the EU but is not in a hurry to finalize it; if negotiations break down, it is reported that the EU is considering imposing export restrictions on the US; the US Treasury Secretary also stated that negotiations with Japan are progressing very satisfactorily.
SMM April 18th News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,133/mt, reaching a high of $9,279.5/mt and a low of $9,111/mt, closing at $9,253/mt (previous close: $9,190.2/mt, up 0.68%). The overall trend showed initial fluctuations followed by a significant rise. Open interest stood at 282,849 lots. Overnight, SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 75,800 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 76,250 yuan/mt and a low of 75,550 yuan/mt, with the latest price at 76,070 yuan/mt (up 230 yuan/mt from the previous close, a 0.30% increase). The overall trend showed initial downward fluctuations followed by a significant rise. Trading volume was 46,735 lots, open interest was 159,208 lots, with a daily increase of -2,901 lots (a change of -1.79%). On the macro front, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the seventh rate cut in the past year, with the decision unanimously approved, and the US dollar index stabilized. Trump expressed confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU but was in no rush to finalize it; if negotiations break down, it is reported that the EU is considering export restrictions on the US; the US Treasury Secretary also stated that negotiations with Japan are progressing very satisfactorily, and the advancement of trade agreements pushed up overnight copper prices. On the fundamental side, overall market activity was good, and due to the widening premiums in South China, the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread drove Shanghai spot copper premiums to remain firm, with tight low-priced supplies in the market. As of Thursday, April 17th, SMM's mainstream copper inventories across the country fell by 17,100 mt to 233,400 mt from Monday, down 33,800 mt from the previous Thursday, marking the seventh consecutive week of destocking, currently falling back from the year's high by 143,600 mt, and 170,100 mt lower than the 403,500 mt YoY. Overall, copper prices are expected to stabilize today as trade concerns ease.
