★Macro★
01 ★★★ 【NBS: Q1 GDP Up 5.4% YoY】
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data on April 16, showing that the preliminary estimate of GDP in Q1 was 31,875.8 billion yuan, up 5.4% YoY at constant prices, and up 1.2% QoQ compared to Q4 of the previous year. By industry: the added value of the primary industry was 1,171.3 billion yuan, up 3.5% YoY; the added value of the secondary industry was 11,190.3 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY; the added value of the tertiary industry was 19,514.2 billion yuan, up 5.3% YoY.
02 ★★★ 【NBS: Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in March Reached 4,094 Billion Yuan, Up 5.9% YoY】
Data from the NBS shows that in March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,094 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 3,661 billion yuan, up 6.0% YoY. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12,467.1 billion yuan, up 4.6% YoY. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 11,343.4 billion yuan, up 5.1% YoY.
03 ★★★ 【NBS: Industrial Added Value of Enterprises Above Designated Size in March Up 7.7% YoY】
Data from the NBS shows that in March, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 7.7% YoY. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in March increased by 0.44% from February. From January to March, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% YoY.
04 ★★★ 【NBS: National Urban Fixed Asset Investment from January to March Reached 10,317.4 Billion Yuan, Up 4.2% YoY】
Data from the NBS shows that from January to March 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 10,317.4 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY (on a comparable basis), with the growth rate accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to January-February. Among them, private fixed asset investment increased by 0.4% YoY, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points. On a MoM basis, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in March increased by 0.15%.
05 ★★ 【NBS: Overall Situation of the Real Estate Market Improved in Q1】
Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the NBS, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the recently released housing price data for 70 cities shows that whether in first-tier or second- and third-tier cities, and whether for new or second-hand homes, price changes have improved. From this perspective, the effects of real estate regulation policies are emerging, and there was no softening of the real estate market in March.
06 ★★ 【NBS: National Real Estate Development Investment from January to March Reached 1,990.4 Billion Yuan, Down 9.9% YoY】
Data from the NBS shows that from January to March, national real estate development investment reached 1,990.4 billion yuan, down 9.9% YoY (on a comparable basis); among them, residential investment was 1,513.3 billion yuan, down 9.0% YoY. From January to March, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 218.69 million m², down 3.0% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 2.1 percentage points compared to January-February; among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 2.0% YoY. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 2,079.8 billion yuan, down 2.1% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; among them, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 0.4% YoY.
★Industry and Downstream★
01 ★★★【SMM Blast Furnace & Electric Furnace Operating Rates】
According to the SMM survey, as of April 16, the operating rate of blast furnaces in 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 87.58%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM. The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 89.83%, up 0.16 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of sample steel mills was 2.4248 million mt, up 4,400 mt MoM.
According to the SMM survey, as of April 15, the operating rate of 50 main building material electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 38.46%, up 0.66% MoM; the capacity utilization rate was 39.07%, up 0.34% MoM; the daily average production of building materials was 87,000 mt, up 800 mt MoM.
02 ★★ 【Qingdao Introduces 12 New Real Estate Policies: Subsidies of 50,000 Yuan for Two-Child Families, 100,000 Yuan for Three-Child Families】
The Qingdao Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, together with the Qingdao Municipal Finance Bureau and five other departments, introduced 12 new policies to promote consumption, benefit talent, and activate the real estate market. Among them, the support for multi-child families purchasing homes has been increased. For multi-child families in Qingdao recognized by the health department as complying with the national policy of fully opening up to two and three children, a subsidy of 50,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan will be provided respectively for the purchase of newly built commercial housing in Qingdao from April 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026. The housing subsidy will be issued in monetary form. The cost of renting for college graduates' employment and entrepreneurship will be reduced. Full-time college graduates with a junior college degree or above within three years of graduation will be provided with rent-free accommodation, effective from July 1 this year. Among them, those coming to Qingdao for job hunting can apply for a cumulative maximum of six months of rent-free accommodation; those who achieve employment or entrepreneurship in Qingdao can apply for an extension of up to 12 months.
03 ★★ 【Shanghai New Home Prices Lead Nationwide MoM Growth in March, Second-Hand Home Prices in First-Tier Cities Turn from Decline to Growth】
The NBS released the changes in commercial housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March 2025. In March, the activity of the housing market increased, with the number of cities where commercial housing sales prices rose MoM increasing; commercial housing sales prices in first-tier cities rose MoM, while the overall decline in second- and third-tier cities narrowed. At the city level, in March, Shanghai's new home prices rose 0.7% MoM, leading the nation; Hangzhou and Chengdu's new home prices rose 0.5% MoM, followed by Ningbo's new home prices rising 0.4% MoM. In addition, the new home prices in Tianjin, Jinan, Changsha, and Yichang all rose by 3% MoM.
04 ★★ 【CPCA: National New Energy Passenger Vehicle Retail Sales from April 1-13 Reached 275,000 Units, Up 15% YoY】
Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that from April 1-13, national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 515,000 units, up 8% YoY compared to the same period last April, but down 14% MoM. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 5.642 million units, up 6% YoY. From April 1-13, national passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 577,000 units, up 17% YoY compared to the same period last April, but down 14% MoM. Cumulative wholesale sales since the beginning of the year reached 6.855 million units, up 12% YoY. From April 1-13, national new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 275,000 units, up 15% YoY compared to the same period last April, but down 17% MoM. The new energy retail penetration rate was 53.3%. Cumulative new energy retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 2.695 million units, up 34% YoY. From April 1-13, national new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 307,000 units, up 25% YoY compared to the same period last April, but down 9% MoM. The new energy wholesale penetration rate was 53.2%. Cumulative new energy wholesale sales since the beginning of the year reached 3.156 million units, up 41% YoY.
★Other Hot Topics★
⭕【Foreign Ministry Responds to "US Tariffs on China Increased to 245%": Specific Tariff Rate Numbers Can Be Asked from the US】At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on April 16, a reporter asked that the latest statement on the official website of the White House stated that due to China's retaliatory measures, US tariffs on China have been increased to 245%. In response, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian said that the specific tariff rate numbers can be asked from the US. China has repeatedly stated its solemn position on tariff issues. This tariff war was initiated by the US, and China's necessary countermeasures are to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests and international fairness and justice, which are completely reasonable and legal. There are no winners in a tariff war or trade war. China does not want to fight, but it is not afraid to fight.
⭕【China and Vietnam Sign Cooperation Document in the Field of Competition】Recently, Luo Wen, Director of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and Trinh Anh Tuan, Chairman of the Competition Committee of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, signed the "Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Field of Competition between the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China and the National Competition Committee of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam." The memorandum clarifies the specific cooperation needs of both sides and will promote deeper and more practical cooperation between the two countries in the field of competition.
⭕【Goldman Sachs China: Signs of Stabilization in First-Tier Cities' Real Estate Market】Liu Jinqui, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, pointed out in an institutional dialogue on the 16th that some signs of stabilization have been seen in the real estate market. Especially in first-tier cities, both housing prices and land auction activities have recently performed quite strongly. It is expected that in the coming months, the real estate market may receive more support.
⭕【Significant Decline in US Port Cargo Throughput, US Port Workers May Face a Wave of Unemployment】The US government's implementation of extensive and erratic tariff policies has caused turmoil in the shipping market, impacting port cargo throughput. At the Port of Long Beach in Southern California, the port authority stated that since early April, 17 container ships have canceled their port calls. If the tariff policy is implemented as planned, the port's cargo throughput will decrease by 20% in H2. More and more workers are beginning to worry about their livelihoods, watching the news every day, fearing that they will be negatively affected by the US government's tariff policies and lose their jobs.
