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New York Fed Consumer Report Faces "Double Whammy": Inflation Expectations Soar, Employment Concerns Intensify
Apr 15, 2025, at 8:49 am
On Monday, April 14, the New York Fed's Microeconomic Data Center released the March 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) labour market report. The results showed that consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rose significantly, while anxiety about employment prospects also increased. Specifically, the median inflation expectation for the next year rose by 0.5 percentage points to 3.6%, the largest monthly increase in two years. However, consumers' medium and long-term inflation expectations remained stable. Median Inflation Expectations for the Next Year/Three Years/Five Years Source: New York Fed. Respondents' inflation expectations for the next three years remained at 3%, while the five-year inflation expectation slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%. Prior to this, several US Fed officials repeatedly emphasized the importance of stabilizing long-term inflation expectations. Although the New York Fed's data remained relatively stable, the University of Michigan's report showed that respondents expected inflation for the next year to be 6.7%, the highest level since 1981; the inflation expectation for the next 5 to 10 years surged to 4.4%, the highest since 1991. Currently, US Fed officials are closely monitoring a series of similar indicators to assess whether the tariff policies introduced by Trump will bring more sustained inflationary pressure. At least the New York Fed's data shows that tariffs have not significantly altered consumers' long-term expectations. The report also showed that respondents believed the probability of the unemployment rate rising in the next year surged to the highest level since April 2020. Additionally, nearly one-third of households expected their financial situation to worsen a year later, the highest proportion since October 2023. Although Trump suspended some "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days last weekend, most analysts and investors still expect the US economic growth to slow down and inflationary pressures to increase in the future. Last Friday, New York Fed President John Williams warned that the tariff measures introduced by Trump could push US inflation this year to between 3.5% and 4%, while also raising the unemployment rate and severely impacting economic growth.
