Futures Market:
Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,890.5/mt. The momentum of "additional" tariffs between China and the US temporarily eased, coupled with the US dollar index hitting a new low, non-ferrous metals gradually fluctuated and rebounded, with LME lead showing an overall upward trend. During the session, it reached a high of $1,923.5/mt, climbing to a near one-week high. LME lead finally closed at $1,911.5/mt, up 1.14%.
Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE lead 2505 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, longs concentrated on adding positions, pushing SHFE lead to a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 16,990 yuan/mt during the session, but failed to regain the 17,000 yuan/mt level. In the latter part of the trading session, the momentum of longs weakened, and SHFE lead gave back some of its gains, finally closing at 16,920 yuan/mt, up 0.86%. Its open interest stood at 34,875 lots, down 1,893 lots from the previous trading day.
》Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotes
Macro Perspective: The Ministry of Commerce responded to reporters' questions regarding the US exemption of some products from "reciprocal tariffs": This is a small step by the US to correct the erroneous practice of unilateral "reciprocal tariffs." Xinhua News Agency: Loudly imposing tariffs, quietly exempting—uncovering the "magic operation" of the US government. According to related reports: Exempted electronic products will be subject to separate tariffs. China's March social financing increment was 5.89 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 3.64 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 scissors gap narrowed.
Last Friday, in the lead spot market, SHFE lead continued its rebound trend. Suppliers stood firm on quotes and sold at premiums, while ex-factory quotations for primary lead smelters were also relatively firm. Premiums for secondary refined lead (against the SMM 1# lead average price) decreased, with some companies able to sell at parity. Downstream companies made just-in-time procurement, and transactions were slightly better than the previous day. In mainstream regions, ex-factory quotations for primary lead smelters were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead price. In the trade market, quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were at premiums of 0-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2505 contract.
Inventory: As of April 11, LME lead inventory increased by 4,975 mt to 247,425 mt. SHFE lead weekly inventory was 62,646 mt, down 3,150 mt from the previous week.
》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database
Today's Lead Price Forecast:
This week, the SHFE lead 2504 contract will enter delivery, and as some major delivery brand companies are under maintenance, suppliers' warehouse transfers are limited, and the pressure on social inventory buildup is relatively small. Meanwhile, scrap battery prices remain firm, providing strong cost support for secondary lead. Additionally, the uncertainty of tariff issues persists, coupled with the decline in the US dollar index, lead prices are expected to fluctuate considerably.
