The US dollar fell nearly 3% on a weekly basis, while metals collectively rose. LME copper and LME tin surged over 2%, and gold prices soared, continuing to hit new highs. [Overnight Market]

SMM April 12 News: In the metal market, both domestic and overseas metal markets rose collectively overnight, with most overseas gains exceeding 1%. LME tin led the gains with a 2.73% increase, followed by LME copper, which rose 2.18%. LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME nickel all rose over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.14%, LME lead up 1.03%, and LME nickel up 1.5%. On the domestic market, SHFE copper, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel all rose over 1%, with SHFE copper up 1.26%, SHFE tin up 1.52%, and SHFE nickel up 1.48%. Other metals saw changes within 1%. Additionally, the main alumina contract rose 2.38%. In the ferrous metals series, most products rose overnight, with stainless steel up 0.87% and iron ore up 0.07%. Rebar remained flat at 3,126 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 0.11%, while coke fell 0.52%. In the precious metals sector, due to a weaker US dollar and trade disputes raising concerns about an economic recession, investors flocked to gold as a safe haven. COMEX gold rose 2.44% overnight, hitting a high of $3,263/oz, setting a new historical record. COMEX silver surged 4.67%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.46%, reaching a high of 764.38 yuan/g, also setting a new record, while SHFE silver rose 2.79%. As of 9:21 AM on April 12, the overnight closing market conditions. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the State Council Tariff Commission announced that starting from April 12, 2025, the tariff rate on imports originating from the US will increase from 84% to 125%. The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson responded to questions regarding China's countermeasures against the US's latest tariff hike, stating that the US's repeated imposition of excessively high tariffs on China has become a numbers game with no practical economic significance, only exposing the US's tactics of weaponizing tariffs and engaging in bullying. If the US continues this tariff numbers game, China will ignore it. However, if the US insists on substantially infringing on China's rights and interests, China will resolutely counter and engage to the end. The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson also responded to questions regarding China's additional lawsuit against US tariff measures at the WTO, stating that China will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests and uphold the multilateral trading system and international economic order. China urges the US to immediately correct its wrong practices and cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China. As of April 10, consumers have purchased a total of 100.35 million home appliances under the trade-in policy. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will further implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, guide localities to intensify efforts, optimize procedures, strengthen publicity, and promote the detailed implementation of the home appliance trade-in policy to achieve greater results. The China Semiconductor Industry Association issued an urgent notice on the "origin" determination rules for semiconductor products, stating that the origin of "integrated circuits" will be determined based on the four-digit tariff code change principle, with the wafer fabrication location recognized as the origin. This means that some semiconductor products fabricated in the US may face price increases due to tariffs. Some chip channel suppliers reported that many US chip companies have suspended quoting new orders. On the US dollar front, the US dollar index fell 1.13% overnight, hitting a low of 99, marking its fourth consecutive decline and reaching its lowest level since April 2022, with a weekly drop of 2.99%. The US's fluctuating tariff policies have shaken investors' confidence in the US dollar as a safe haven, with the US dollar falling to its lowest level against the Swiss franc in a decade and hitting a three-year low against the euro. Data shows that due to unease over trade tensions, US consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in April, while the 12-month inflation expectation surged to its highest level since 1981. US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March due to a significant drop in energy product costs, but import tariffs are expected to push inflation higher in the coming months. The US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI fell 0.4% MoM in March, with February's data revised to 0.1%. The PPI rose 2.7% YoY in March, compared to 3.2% in February. Data released by the US Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 were 223,000, in line with expectations, with the previous week's figure at 219,000. Continuing claims for the week ending March 29 were 1.85 million, compared to expectations of 1.882 million, with the previous week's figure revised from 1.903 million to 1.893 million. Initial jobless claims increased slightly last week, and this number may trend upward as companies respond to import tariff plans. While overall layoffs remain at historically low levels, hiring has been lukewarm, leading to prolonged unemployment for some. Meanwhile, tariff policies increase the likelihood of an economic recession in the next 12 months. Market participants are now betting that the US Fed will resume rate cuts in June and cut rates by approximately 90 basis points by the end of 2025. In other currencies, the US dollar fell 0.71% against the Swiss franc to 0.81795. The US dollar fell 0.24% against the Japanese yen to 144.05 yen, after hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The euro surged 0.85% to 1.12970 US dollars, after hitting its highest level since February 2022. The euro rose 0.27% against the British pound, while the British pound rose 0.67% against the US dollar to 1.30540 US dollars. In terms of data, next week in China, the March trade balance, March import and export YoY, March M2 money supply YoY, year-to-date social financing scale, year-to-date new yuan loans, April 15 MLF operation size, April 15 MLF interest rate, year-to-date urban fixed asset investment YoY, year-to-date industrial added value YoY, March total retail sales YoY, Q1 GDP YoY (single quarter), year-to-date Q1 GDP YoY, and March electricity consumption YoY will be released. In the US, the March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation, March New York Fed 3-year inflation expectation, March New York Fed 1-year gold price expectation, April New York Fed manufacturing index, April New York Fed manufacturing future 6-month expectation index, March import price index YoY, March core retail sales MoM, March retail sales YoY, March retail sales control group MoM (seasonally adjusted), March industrial production MoM, March manufacturing production MoM, March manufacturing capacity utilization rate, March industrial production YoY (seasonally adjusted), March building permits annualized total initial value, initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12, and April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released. In the Eurozone, the April ZEW economic sentiment index, March total reserve assets, March core harmonized CPI YoY (unadjusted final), April ECB main refinancing rate, April ECB deposit facility rate, and April ECB marginal lending rate will be released. In the UK, the February unemployment rate (ILO standard), February three-month average earnings including bonuses YoY, March core CPI YoY, March retail price index YoY, and March unadjusted input PPI YoY will be released. In Australia, the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending April 13, March seasonally adjusted unemployment, and March employment change will be released. In Canada, the March Bank of Canada core CPI YoY (unadjusted), February manufacturing sales MoM, February new manufacturing orders MoM, and April 17 Bank of Canada overnight lending rate will be released. Japan's March seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance, March merchandise exports (unadjusted), March national core CPI YoY, Germany's April ZEW economic sentiment index, New Zealand's March trade balance, and Q1 CPI YoY will also be released. Additionally, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major cities. US Fed Chair Powell will deliver a speech, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a Q&A session. Notably, on April 18, the New York Stock Exchange, Sydney Stock Exchange, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Paris Stock Exchange, Milan Stock Exchange, Madrid Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for Good Friday. CME will suspend trading for precious metals, US crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts for the entire day, and ICE will suspend trading for Brent crude oil futures contracts for the entire day. In the crude oil market, due to potential disruptions in Iranian oil exports, both WTI and Brent crude prices rose overnight, with WTI up 2.35% and Brent up 1.99%. Despite tightening supply prospects, concerns remain that trade disputes may reduce global trade volume and disrupt trade routes, thereby dragging down global economic growth and reducing oil demand. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that trade conflicts have impacted market sentiment and dragged down oil prices. Barclays remains cautious about near-term oil prices due to increased uncertainty from the recent sharp escalation in trade tensions. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its global economic growth forecast on Thursday and warned that tariffs could significantly impact oil prices, while also lowering its US and global oil demand estimates for this year and next. Baker Hughes, a US energy services company, reported in its closely watched report that the number of active oil rigs in the US recorded its largest weekly drop since June 2023, with the total number of oil and gas rigs falling for the third consecutive week. Data shows that as of the week ending April 11, the total number of oil and gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, fell by 7 to 583, marking the largest weekly drop since June 2024. The number of active oil rigs fell by 9 to 480.

SMM

The US dollar fell nearly 3% on a weekly basis, while metals collectively rose. LME copper and LME tin surged over 2%, and gold prices soared, continuing to hit new highs. [Overnight Market]

The resumption progress of power grid projects showed promising results, and the operating rate of aluminum wire and cable rebounded in preparation for the delivery cycle [SMM Analysis]

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